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bscott
01-29-2008, 01:49 PM
Not that we all collect to invest, but some game used purchases end up being good investments.

With this in mind, what current (non-vintage) MLB game used items do you think have the most potential to go up in value and why?

-bscott.

AWA85
01-29-2008, 01:52 PM
Ryan Braun's jock strap...?:D

bigtruck260
01-29-2008, 02:31 PM
I have said many times to friends over the years that So Taguchi items will blossom at some point. He lives in Japan - it's not like he's going to be coming back to the US for signings regularly when he reitres.

He is the first and only MLB Japanese Cardinal - and the only one with a WS ring and another NLCS ring. Not to mention, he was a popular player in his 6 seasons in STL. I am just glad I have a few things of his.

Edgar Renteria is another sleeper. He projects HOF numbers, but his GU stuff is still pretty inexpensive. I say, buy low and sell high like all investments...and never over-invest. I am sure that many Mark Prior collectors are kicking themsleves right now.

Dave

misteremu
01-29-2008, 02:33 PM
Charlie Batch

David
01-29-2008, 02:37 PM
Relative to other players of his era, how about Greg Maddux? Good chance that in 10, 20 years, he'll be ranked as the best pitcher of his era.

godwulf
01-29-2008, 02:45 PM
I sincerely hope that Justin Upton's minor league jerseys will prove to be a huge investment gold mine some day, since I seem to have just about cornered the market on them. :D I'm actually not counting on it...but it would be nice.

nate
01-29-2008, 03:01 PM
My list would be guys who are close to retirement but HOF bound:

Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Ken Griffey Jr.
Frank Thomas
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Piazza


The only jockstrap that would be funny to have:

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/05/15/ken-griffey-discusses-the-jock-strap-incident/

commando
01-29-2008, 03:09 PM
I'm not sure if many true modern "investments" are out there. Superstar jerseys, in particular, need good documentation and/or provenance because unfortunately, lots of pro-cut unworn items are being made these days (not to mention the usual gamble of how the player will perform on the field). A good superstar jersey like this will cost you at least a couple thousand dollars, so you really have to "pay to play" when it comes to an item like this.

ahuff
01-29-2008, 04:05 PM
I sincerely hope that Justin Upton's minor league jerseys will prove to be a huge investment gold mine some day, since I seem to have just about cornered the market on them. :D I'm actually not counting on it...but it would be nice.

Do you happen to have his South Bend one?

GameBats
01-29-2008, 04:15 PM
1) Jeter
2) Jeter
3) Jeter
4) Jeter
5) Jeter

RobSteinmetz
01-29-2008, 05:33 PM
In my humble opinion, legitimate (well worn) game used fielders gloves are the ticket. They are by far the most undervalued item in our hobby when you take into account that most players only go through 1 or 2 each year (sometimes less). In terms of modern game used equipment, they are likely the last category of collectible that can be considered scarce.

kingjammy24
01-29-2008, 05:34 PM
"what current (non-vintage) MLB game used items do you think have the most potential to go up in value and why?"

for the most part, most items have little potential to significantly increase in value. it has little to do with how well a player will do. rather, the inherant problem is that the current pricing is built on predictions and hype; on a players potential to win ROY or win 20 games or reach the HOF. if the pricing already has these assumptions built into it, then how much room is there for pricing to move upwards? in other words, even if the player lives up to the predictions, all they've done is justify the current pricing. they haven't made it increase because the pricing already assumed they'd accomplish those things. do you think that current pujols pricing doesn't have the assumption that he'll hit 500 HR built into it? of course it does. so if you're already paying 500 HR prices now, then how much can you really hope to gain when pujols eventually hits 500? it's not like it'll be surprising. all sorts of prognosticators are constantly trying to predict who'll end up where and when. current pricing is based to a large extent on these predictions. given that it's more likely for a player not to live up to lofty predictions, it's more likely for prices to eventually come down than go up dramatically. todd zeile? gregg jeffries? ben mcdonald? at the very start of the careers, all of their stuff was priced as if these guys were already 10-time all-stars. prices had nowhere to go but down because even if they had lived up to the hype, the prices would've stayed relatively level because it already assumed they'd live up to it.
as for maddux, griffey, arod etc, their current prices already reflect that they're first-ballot HOF'ers because everyone knows they're as good as in. they could all stop playing today and they're in. for them, the summer induction is nothing but a formality at this point. it's not like once these guys are formally inducted, people will say "wow back in '08, i really wasn't sure if griffey and maddux would make it in!" and prices will rise. substantial profits are made only when risks are taken. how are griffey or maddux or arod a risk in '08? their current stats have already sealed their fates. everyone knows this so the prices reflect it. griffey and maddux were risks in 1988. the HOF has an effect on the prices for some players but those are the players that most people weren't sure whether they'd make it or not. borderline guys who squeaked through. if you're currently selling a griffey or maddux gamer, then you obviously know you're selling the gamer of a HOF'er and you're going to price it as such. anyone buying a griffey gamer today knows they're buying a HOF gamer and will pay accordingly.

that said, i suppose there are still a few ways prices could rise.

you could find a sleeper. some 7th round, 253rd pick who flies completely under everyones radar and turns out to be the next ARod. good luck. it'll require you outsmarting every scout and sportswriter out there.

you could find a player who outperforms the predictions. good luck on that as well. most people are already predicting ARod will break Bonds' record and of course they're building that assumption into the current ARod pricing. i suppose in order for ARod prices to rise he'll have to rise above those lofty predictions and smash something like 900 HRs instead of a paltry 800.

the supply (ie: massive glut) of current MLB items makes it very difficult to turn a serious profit. didn't snag that 2004 pujols jersey or 2005 david wright bat? no worries, there'll be 50 more boxloads coming soon. no need to pay a premium when everyone's drowning in the stuff.

the only way i see of profiting from current MLB items is via arbitrage. the item or player doesn't really matter. the only thing that matters is that item, whatever it is, is simply underpriced and you're the first one to notice and grab it. of course, market forces are generally working against you on this one because if there's an underpriced item then it's likely several people will notice and attempt to buy it and suddenly it won't be underpriced anymore. ideally what needs to happen is that there's some poor soul going through a divorce or foreclosure or some such and he's willing to part with his item for substantially less than it's worth. you're the first one to notice and grab it. or you could strike a bulk deal in which the price on each piece is substantially less than the current market value. i imagine it'd have to be a pretty big bulk. barring arbitrage, i don't see how you can outwit all of the prognosticators out there whilst swimming upstream against the huge glut of current items, in order to realize a substantial return.

in short, big returns are only acheived by taking big risks. want a big return? find a risky player and pray he turns out to be the next ARod. at this point, there's little to no risk with ARod, Griffey, Maddux, so there's going to be little to no reward. as of today, ARod's already a HOF'er so how much more do you think prices can rise? since when has buying bluechips at their high point ever made a substantial return? for ARod's prices to increase substantially above their current level he'd have to surpass current expectations which are that he'll hit 45-50 HRs a season for the next several years. unless he takes Bonds' roid route, i don't see ARod turning 35 and suddenly belting out 60-65 HRs a year. he's already a first-ballot HOF'er. there's little upside left. buying him back in 1994 would've seen a return. buying him in '08? no risk, no reward.

I'll end off by suggesting you try this 2007 Troy Tulowitzki gamer for $3000: http://www.greyflannel.com/sales_main_Detail.php?updateID=3188
if your first reaction is "who the hell is troy tulowitzki?" then you're probably not alone. so far, tulowitzki has 1 full season under his belt. during that season he smashed an unreal 24 HR while maintaining awe-inspiring .291 average. the $3000 price tag seems to assume tulowitzki will start in the next 6 all-star games and average 40 HRs a season from here on in. the funny thing is, even if he does perform these huge feats, the price won't go up much because it already assumes he's done these things. What then would it take for this Tulowitzki to turn into a $6k jersey and really turn a profit for its buyer? Tulowitzki would quickly need to turn into the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. good luck.

rudy.

bigtruck260
01-29-2008, 05:50 PM
Rudy -

Thanks for the GREAT read. Makes perfect sense...you should send that to SCD as an editorial - Lord knows they could use some substance.

Dave

joelsabi
01-29-2008, 06:57 PM
I sincerely hope that Justin Upton's minor league jerseys will prove to be a huge investment gold mine some day, since I seem to have just about cornered the market on them. :D I'm actually not counting on it...but it would be nice.

if these are for an investment, wait for his first great season and dump it. I like what rudy says that once they are well know you will get your price and keeping it will not get you any noticable additional return

skyking26
01-29-2008, 07:09 PM
I guess there are those out there that collect for investment. In 30 years of collecting I buy what I "like." Have a huge Dave Kingman collection which spans bats, jerseys and gloves. Also have bats from the 68 and 84 Tigers and collect Jim Thome and Adam Dunn stuff. Thome would stick out as the only viable HOF or investment thing right now - but who cares. This is a hobby based on my enjoyment and escapism from the daily grind...

RK

suave1477
01-29-2008, 07:41 PM
"what current (non-vintage) MLB game used items do you think have the most potential to go up in value and why?"

for the most part, most items have little potential to significantly increase in value. it has little to do with how well a player will do. rather, the inherant problem is that the current pricing is built on predictions and hype; on a players potential to win ROY or win 20 games or reach the HOF. if the pricing already has these assumptions built into it, then how much room is there for pricing to move upwards? in other words, even if the player lives up to the predictions, all they've done is justify the current pricing. they haven't made it increase because the pricing already assumed they'd accomplish those things. do you think that current pujols pricing doesn't have the assumption that he'll hit 500 HR built into it? of course it does. so if you're already paying 500 HR prices now, then how much can you really hope to gain when pujols eventually hits 500? it's not like it'll be surprising. all sorts of prognosticators are constantly trying to predict who'll end up where and when. current pricing is based to a large extent on these predictions. given that it's more likely for a player not to live up to lofty predictions, it's more likely for prices to eventually come down than go up dramatically. todd zeile? gregg jeffries? ben mcdonald? at the very start of the careers, all of their stuff was priced as if these guys were already 10-time all-stars. prices had nowhere to go but down because even if they had lived up to the hype, the prices would've stayed relatively level because it already assumed they'd live up to it.
as for maddux, griffey, arod etc, their current prices already reflect that they're first-ballot HOF'ers because everyone knows they're as good as in. they could all stop playing today and they're in. for them, the summer induction is nothing but a formality at this point. it's not like once these guys are formally inducted, people will say "wow back in '08, i really wasn't sure if griffey and maddux would make it in!" and prices will rise. substantial profits are made only when risks are taken. how are griffey or maddux or arod a risk in '08? their current stats have already sealed their fates. everyone knows this so the prices reflect it. griffey and maddux were risks in 1988. the HOF has an effect on the prices for some players but those are the players that most people weren't sure whether they'd make it or not. borderline guys who squeaked through. if you're currently selling a griffey or maddux gamer, then you obviously know you're selling the gamer of a HOF'er and you're going to price it as such. anyone buying a griffey gamer today knows they're buying a HOF gamer and will pay accordingly.

that said, i suppose there are still a few ways prices could rise.

you could find a sleeper. some 7th round, 253rd pick who flies completely under everyones radar and turns out to be the next ARod. good luck. it'll require you outsmarting every scout and sportswriter out there.

you could find a player who outperforms the predictions. good luck on that as well. most people are already predicting ARod will break Bonds' record and of course they're building that assumption into the current ARod pricing. i suppose in order for ARod prices to rise he'll have to rise above those lofty predictions and smash something like 900 HRs instead of a paltry 800.

the supply (ie: massive glut) of current MLB items makes it very difficult to turn a serious profit. didn't snag that 2004 pujols jersey or 2005 david wright bat? no worries, there'll be 50 more boxloads coming soon. no need to pay a premium when everyone's drowning in the stuff.

the only way i see of profiting from current MLB items is via arbitrage. the item or player doesn't really matter. the only thing that matters is that item, whatever it is, is simply underpriced and you're the first one to notice and grab it. of course, market forces are generally working against you on this one because if there's an underpriced item then it's likely several people will notice and attempt to buy it and suddenly it won't be underpriced anymore. ideally what needs to happen is that there's some poor soul going through a divorce or foreclosure or some such and he's willing to part with his item for substantially less than it's worth. you're the first one to notice and grab it. or you could strike a bulk deal in which the price on each piece is substantially less than the current market value. i imagine it'd have to be a pretty big bulk. barring arbitrage, i don't see how you can outwit all of the prognosticators out there whilst swimming upstream against the huge glut of current items, in order to realize a substantial return.

in short, big returns are only acheived by taking big risks. want a big return? find a risky player and pray he turns out to be the next ARod. at this point, there's little to no risk with ARod, Griffey, Maddux, so there's going to be little to no reward. as of today, ARod's already a HOF'er so how much more do you think prices can rise? since when has buying bluechips at their high point ever made a substantial return? for ARod's prices to increase substantially above their current level he'd have to surpass current expectations which are that he'll hit 45-50 HRs a season for the next several years. unless he takes Bonds' roid route, i don't see ARod turning 35 and suddenly belting out 60-65 HRs a year. he's already a first-ballot HOF'er. there's little upside left. buying him back in 1994 would've seen a return. buying him in '08? no risk, no reward.

I'll end off by suggesting you try this 2007 Troy Tulowitzki gamer for $3000: http://www.greyflannel.com/sales_main_Detail.php?updateID=3188
if your first reaction is "who the hell is troy tulowitzki?" then you're probably not alone. so far, tulowitzki has 1 full season under his belt. during that season he smashed an unreal 24 HR while maintaining awe-inspiring .291 average. the $3000 price tag seems to assume tulowitzki will start in the next 6 all-star games and average 40 HRs a season from here on in. the funny thing is, even if he does perform these huge feats, the price won't go up much because it already assumes he's done these things. What then would it take for this Tulowitzki to turn into a $6k jersey and really turn a profit for its buyer? Tulowitzki would quickly need to turn into the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. good luck.

rudy.


I agree a 100% with Rudy,

Just an example of what he is sayiong for a player real current.

Lastings Milledge - people were so hyped over him and predicting him to be the next Mickey Mantle well at least in New York they were. That the prices for his Game Used items in my opinion were way too high. Contoversy and during his actual game playing time showed to be a decent player not a God. Plus the fact he was traded before you can even remember what team he started with drove his prices straight down just as quick as they were up.

cohibasmoker
01-29-2008, 08:03 PM
The best formula is the oldest formula, "Supply and Demand".

With the way modern equipment is being pumped out by the players, equipment managers, agents, sports memorabilia companies and teams themselves, it's hard to find that unique item let alone a one of a kind item.

As for demand, one scandal and there goes the demand. Anyone remember a guy named Michael Vick?

If a member does manage to get a unique item of a rising Superstar, flip it right away, make your profit, buy the wife and kids dinner (if you can) and be satisfied that you did well.

Jim

gameusedbat.com
01-29-2008, 08:03 PM
Hey guys,

Since I've been doing bats, the way I see it is there are high-risk, high-reward investments and low-risk, low-reward investments that people can make. I will elaborate on the two categories a bit.

The high-risk, high-reward moves would be for example to score a "rookie" bat of a player who is primed for big success. They may not and will not all turn out to be HOFers, but the one time you hit the nail on you most likely have tripled your investment with a 4 figure bat that you stole dirt cheap and sat on for years. For this type, I've listed 5 players that I like.

(1) Ryan Braun
(2) Troy Tulowitzki
(3) Justin Upton
(4) Matt Holliday
(5) Jacoby Ellsbury

The low-risk, low-reward moves would generally revolve around milestone breakers and future HOFers who are still under the radar but headed to the 500 HR Club, 3000 Hit Club, Hall of Fame, or all three! These guys are a step away from statistically being a lock and have a few years for collectors to swoop in before prices go up. Below are 5 players like this.

(1) Frank Thomas
(2) Jim Thome
(3) Manny Ramirez
(4) Tom Glavine
(5) Ivan Rodriguez

I hope this helps!

Ryan

kingjammy24
01-29-2008, 08:26 PM
rk, i completely agree. that said, it seems there'll always be those who want to treat this whole hobby as an investment. they're probably better off sticking their money into a MMF but that's not nearly as fun i guess.

anyway, i just wanted to add a few more points. i'm sure the flippers on this forum can add more insight than me about how to turn a decent profit on this stuff. i'd wager their M.O. though depends on arbitrage rather than investing in some rookie and waiting 20 yrs until he hits the HOF. the issue is that prices on hot players start off high, even before they've logged their first full season. if prices start off high, then the player needs to exceed expectations in order to turn a decent profit. sure it's happened in a few cases, but take a look at the entire portfolio; for every player you've scored on, how many have you lost money on?

when you look at the people successfully flipping items, it seems to me that their success is due, not to the player or their accomplishments, but rather that they managed to acquire the item for less than market value. it has more to do with trolling ebay and private sales trying to pick out under-priced items than anything else.

one variation is simply to flip the item from a low-priced source like ebay or low-end auction house like Historic to a high-priced source like GFC or Mastro. again, nothing to do with the player or their accomplishments. items purchased at steiner firesales or ebay and then recycled via mastro or GFC. i can't count the number of times i've seen an item originally on ebay sell for twice the amount at an auction house. here's an interesting sale:

http://www.gameuseduniverse.com/vb_forum/showthread.php?t=12335

the same jersey at 2 different auction houses. the auctions were running at the same time. from the info on the thread, the lelands jersey was better. lelands '94 arod alt sold for $9k. GFC's '94 arod alt sold for almost $30k! $21k extra for what exactly? a market inefficiency. if you had bought the jersey for $9k from lelands and dumped into GFC and made $30k, that's a nice profit for doing nothing more than exploiting price inequalities. nothing to do with spotting a great player early on or placing a bet that some guy would squeak through to the HOF. i'd wager there's far more money to be made from this sort of flipping than any "investing".

you'll make more money buying a vladimir guerrero gamer from ASI on a monday and dumping it into Mastro on a tuesday than buying a guerrero gamer and waiting 10 yrs until he's in the HOF and then dumping it on ebay. with constant flipping, you're regularly making money. by "investing" your cash is all tied up while you wait for god knows how long as you pray that the players accomplishments exceed their hype/potential.

rudy.

suave1477
01-29-2008, 08:43 PM
Hey guys,

Since I've been doing bats, the way I see it is there are high-risk, high-reward investments and low-risk, low-reward investments that people can make. I will elaborate on the two categories a bit.

The high-risk, high-reward moves would be for example to score a "rookie" bat of a player who is primed for big success. They may not and will not all turn out to be HOFers, but the one time you hit the nail on you most likely have tripled your investment with a 4 figure bat that you stole dirt cheap and sat on for years. For this type, I've listed 5 players that I like.

(1) Ryan Braun
(2) Troy Tulowitzki
(3) Justin Upton
(4) Matt Holliday
(5) Jacoby Ellsbury

The low-risk, low-reward moves would generally revolve around milestone breakers and future HOFers who are still under the radar but headed to the 500 HR Club, 3000 Hit Club, Hall of Fame, or all three! These guys are a step away from statistically being a lock and have a few years for collectors to swoop in before prices go up. Below are 5 players like this.

(1) Frank Thomas
(2) Jim Thome
(3) Manny Ramirez
(4) Tom Glavine
(5) Ivan Rodriguez

I hope this helps!

Ryan

I think a player that everybody is forgetting and I notice people dont speak of him as in terms of hall of fame potential is Gary Sheffield.

Look at his numbers - only 20 home runs away from 500

9 time All Star
1992 Major League Player of the Year
5 time Silver Slugger
7 times voted for MVP

Stat wise compared to 5 hall of famers
Mickey Mantle
Eddie Matthews
Mike Schmidt
Willie Stargell
Billy Williams

By age compared to 6 hall of famers
Reggie Jackson
Mike Schmidt
Ernie Banks
Dave Winfield
Billy Williams
Al Kaline

You go to admit he has a great shot and all the others stats he is comapred are guys who should be going in also.

Like Frank Thomas / Ken Griffey

joelsabi
01-29-2008, 11:22 PM
I think a player that everybody is forgetting and I notice people dont speak of him as in terms of hall of fame potential is Gary Sheffield.

Look at his numbers - only 20 home runs away from 500

9 time All Star
1992 Major League Player of the Year
5 time Silver Slugger
7 times voted for MVP

Stat wise compared to 5 hall of famers
Mickey Mantle
Eddie Matthews
Mike Schmidt
Willie Stargell
Billy Williams

By age compared to 6 hall of famers
Reggie Jackson
Mike Schmidt
Ernie Banks
Dave Winfield
Billy Williams
Al Kaline

You go to admit he has a great shot and all the others stats he is comapred are guys who should be going in also.

Like Frank Thomas / Ken Griffey



why is his stuff so cheap?

http://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?sofocus=bs&sbrftog=1&dfsp=2&catref=C6&from=R10&satitle=sheffied&sacat=-1%26catref%3DC6&sadis=200&fpos=90805&sabfmts=1&ftrt=1&ftrv=1&saprclo=&saprchi=&seller=1&sass=iconsportsmarketing&fsop=2&fsoo=2

eGameUsed
01-30-2008, 01:38 AM
Dealing in a lot of his items, I would say Craig Biggio items seam to increase in value a lot more than his 3000 Hit Club counterparts.

Thanks,

BergerKing22784
01-30-2008, 02:11 AM
The sad thing is you need something bad to happen to someone to get a profit out of an item. It makes me sick when someone dies at a young age via being killed in an accident or murdered or whatever how their stuff increases very very high.

It honestly sickened me to see Mike Coolbaugh bats trying to be sold for what it is trying to be sold of or did sell for because he died coaching first base and not jsut because of natural causes. He did nothing on the field to constitue that price as I wouldnt haven even bid 10 bucks on it on ebay if would have seen it before his death as he did nothing in the majors.

It happens all the time.... Sean Taylor great great player probably would make the hall of fame if he kept up the way he was projected to do. He was murdered and his stuff was selling for 100 times what you could have bought it for pre murder.

zookerman182
01-30-2008, 03:51 AM
i do not think many items have a chance to increase in value but i think as far as bats are concerned, the better use on the bat the better the bat will hold its value and maybe even go up. Alot of "weakly used' game used bats have started to surface over the past few years and its really hard to find bats that show they have actually been taken to the plate for more than a games use. I think collectors will start to go after bats that have been to battle over bats of good players that show little to no use. I personally would rather have a ray durham game used bat thats covered in use and looks too battered to even use again over a manny ramirez bat that shows none of mannys characteristics and happens to have maybe a few barrel scratches. My opinion is that as far as bats go i think collectors will start to lean towards a collection of trashed bats over a collection of big name basically game issued bats. Of course there is the double whammy which is finding a big name player whos bat is hammered. Then i think you have an item that has no limits on how high it can go.

Yankwood
01-30-2008, 04:44 AM
Sheffield's stuff was cheap to begin with because there was so much of it available coupled with being unpopular. Now throw in the steroid factor and you have what you have.

godwulf
01-30-2008, 09:54 AM
Do you happen to have his South Bend one?

Nope...got one to sell? I guess that's the next quest for me. I've got four from Visalia and three from Mobile.

godwulf
01-30-2008, 10:00 AM
if these are for an investment, wait for his first great season and dump it. I like what rudy says that once they are well know you will get your price and keeping it will not get you any noticable additional return

Nah, my finances would have to take a very serious downturn before I'd part with any of my collection. I guess that, cumulatively, it will all be worth something some day - and since none of my kids seem at all interested in Baseball, I'll probably have to make some kind of arrangements for it to be sold after I croak - but barring unforseen circumstances, those jerseys will still be with me when J-Up is collecting his MLB pension.

bigtruck260
01-30-2008, 10:50 AM
Guys -

I have posted about Edgar Renteria being a probable future HOF numerous times, and I can't believe that not one person has seconded that. I mean, you can get a GU bat for under $100.

He is 31 and is a hair away from 2000 hits. He has plenty of SB, runs, RBI - .291 average - and is a great SS. He was a WS hero, and has a few rings. Slightly less than Jeter, but Jeter is a year older - and plays in NY.

Seriously, Edgar is someone you should think about in the short term for long term benefits.

Dave

suave1477
01-30-2008, 11:18 AM
BigTruck I will second your motion on his possibilties but remember the Hall of Fame is a popularity contest.

And to be honest Edgar is not completley a in the spotlight type of guy. When I say this I speak from a New Yorkers point of view. In New York we barely hear too much about him and something that makes players stand out is these days is power hitting which he doesn't even come close too.

If you want to compare Jeter and I am not saying Jeter is a first ballot into the hall either but just comparing numbers.

Jeter is not even a power hitter and has double the home runs Edgar has, Edgar barely scrapes 10 HR'S a year.

Stolen bases - Edgar only has about 10 over Jeter and thats because he had 3 really good years but Jeter is consistant every year with an average of 20 - Edgar is not consitant and hasn't stolen 20 in 4 years.

In 10 years he has been on 4 teams so I think that hurts him a bit.


So I ll say it's possible but no where near a definite hall of fame bound player. I would say if at most he will be a Jim Rice and be lingering around the hall of fame votes but probably wont make it, unless he goes in with the veterans vote.

joelsabi
01-30-2008, 11:37 AM
Nah, my finances would have to take a very serious downturn before I'd part with any of my collection. I guess that, cumulatively, it will all be worth something some day - and since none of my kids seem at all interested in Baseball, I'll probably have to make some kind of arrangements for it to be sold after I croak - but barring unforseen circumstances, those jerseys will still be with me when J-Up is collecting his MLB pension.

Then you are definitely a collector. Justin is better than his brother and BJ just turned the corner in the major. Did you buy all those jersey that were going for $500-700 a couple of month ago on ebay?

kellsox
01-30-2008, 11:43 AM
Rentaria was a bust in Boston and I believe they are currently paying part of his salary to NOT play from them. Due to longevity he will rack up #s but at no time has he been close to a "dominant" player. There's probably a reason why he is traded almost every year(the last few).
kelly

bigtruck260
01-30-2008, 12:29 PM
Rentaria was a bust in Boston and I believe they are currently paying part of his salary to NOT play from them. Due to longevity he will rack up #s but at no time has he been close to a "dominant" player. There's probably a reason why he is traded almost every year(the last few).
kelly

You and Suave make good points - but he DID hit .332 last season - and played through injury. Longevity can also be a good thing. Many players broke records simply because they hung around for 25 years.

Hank Aaron is a great example.

He is probably borderline...but still affordable and a guy that people will problably look back on as a guy who "slipped through the cracks".

If he plays 8 more seasons and averages 150 hits every year, he will be well over 3,000 (3200) hits and will be 39 - which is younger than some guys who did it. I guess we'll see...

Dave

suave1477
01-30-2008, 12:44 PM
You and Suave make good points - but he DID hit .332 last season - and played through injury. Longevity can also be a good thing. Many players broke records simply because they hung around for 25 years.

Hank Aaron is a great example.

He is probably borderline...but still affordable and a guy that people will problably look back on as a guy who "slipped through the cracks".

If he plays 8 more seasons and averages 150 hits every year, he will be well over 3,000 (3200) hits and will be 39 - which is younger than some guys who did it. I guess we'll see...

Dave

Big Truck ok now your comparing Apples and Oranges, yeah look at Hank Aaron and what he accomplished because he stuck around, but he did it with making high numbers not just sticking around. If Edgar Renteria stuck around it would take him nearly 60 years to do what Hank did and nearly 40 years to hit the 500 mark. As far as him making it to the 3000 mark another unlikely - like you said he will need 8 more seasons thats going to depend on how many more teams want to pick him up and chances are towards the latter of his career he may end up as a pinch hitter or a utility player.

So with every point you bring up im starting to think less and less of his chances of making it to the hall lol lol:rolleyes:

bigtruck260
01-30-2008, 01:05 PM
Big Truck ok now your comparing Apples and Oranges, yeah look at Hank Aaron and what he accomplished because he stuck around, but he did it with making high numbers not just sticking around. If Edgar Renteria stuck around it would take him nearly 60 years to do what Hank did and nearly 40 years to hit the 500 mark. As far as him making it to the 3000 mark another unlikely - like you said he will need 8 more seasons thats going to depend on how many more teams want to pick him up and chances are towards the latter of his career he may end up as a pinch hitter or a utility player.

So with every point you bring up im starting to think less and less of his chances of making it to the hall lol lol:rolleyes:

Was not comparing Renteria to Hank - that IS funny.

No - just saying that Hank's numbers were consistent with a guy who played a long time.

He broke the HR record with 4000 more at bats than Ruth had. Bonds broke his record with 2800 less at bats. Hank is in the top 5 of all time. Renteria would be lucky to crack the top 200-250 when his career is finished.

My argument is that IF Renteria plays 19 seasons, he could amass 3,000 hits - which is a HOF standard (currently, that might change).

That's all...he is a longshot for the HOF, but there is a possibility there.

The point of the thread was Best Modern GU investments - Edgar is not over-priced right now. IF he is fruitful in the last half of his career, the prices on his GU items will probably increase significantly. They certainly will not decrease unless he pulls an OJ or gets hurt and is forced to retire.

Suave - these are all IF's.

kingjammy24
01-30-2008, 04:26 PM
"The high-risk, high-reward moves would be for example to score a "rookie" bat of a player who is primed for big success. They may not and will not all turn out to be HOFers, but the one time you hit the nail on you most likely have tripled your investment with a 4 figure bat that you stole dirt cheap and sat on for years."

ryan, what sorts of bat prices are you seeing for the "high risk" players you mentioned?

if a player is "primed for big success" then it's almost impossible for them not to be hyped. as the hype increases, predictions start flowing and prices naturally escalate. given this, i'm not sure how it's possible to get the game-used item of a hyped rookie for "dirt cheap".

before matsuzaka even set foot in boston, all the reports had fans believing the sox had found a japanese walter johnson. GFC is currently selling his '07 rookie jersey (with steiner certs) for $16k. $16k for the jersey of a guy who's played a total of 1 year. if he ends up being the next cy young, then you might break even! if he ends up as anything less, you'll be out around $10k. how can you not like those odds? i realize that GFC's ludicrous price isn't true market value but even at $12k, there's almost no upside.

GFC currently has an '07 ryan braun jersey rated A10 by MEARS. it's $4000. to put these prices in a relative comparison, GFC is selling an '02 andy pettitte gamer with steiner certs for $1250. braun has played a career total of 35 games and has an awe-inspiring 2-1 record with an era of 6.xx. pettitte has won over 200, is a 2x all-star and world champion yet his steiner-certed jersey is less than half of brauns'. braun may never win 200 games in his entire career or star in a single all-star game. so what exactly is the basis behind braun's $4k jersey or daisuke's $16k jersey? hype. GFC is pricing the braun jersey as if he's already won 250 games. whatever the predictions were when pettitte was a rookie, we now know what he's actually accomplished and apparently those accomplishments are worth $1250. if a 200 game winner is worth $1250, then how many games must braun win to justify $4000? if braun beats the odds, fulfills all predictions and wins 250 games, what will his jersey be worth then? what will be the payoff for those lucky souls who accurately predicted braun's future and hung in there for years? around $4000 probably. if braun ends up being only as good as pettitte, then his jersey will be worth $1250 and you've lost $2750. basically, if you buy that braun jersey for $4000, braun MUST one day become the next 250 game winner simply for you to re-coup your costs. where's the profit? at a $4k starting price, the profit would only come if he ends up being the next nolan ryan.

mikitasports, the "exclusive source for ryan braun items", sold a braun bat for $500: http://www.mikitasports.com/braun_batsigned_large.html

what's the $500 based on, if clearly not performance? the "potential" of braun. potential to do what? to possibly be as good as curt schilling one day? well why take the risk and wait to find out? you can grab a schilling game-used bat right now with team LOA for about $500 from steinmetz: http://www.authenticgamers.com/Schilling.02.bat.html

whatever you're paying $500 for braun to hopefully one day become, schilling has already done that and his bats are apparently worth no more than brauns' so where's the profit to realize if braun made it big? there's almost no profit because the current pricing on braun seems to already assume he's accomplished what schilling has. in reality, it's unlikely he will. the only person profiting is the one who manages to sell braun for $500 now with big, glorious proclamations of upside. "he'll be huge! big one day, i tell ya!". he may be but when he is, that bat isn't gonna be worth much more than it is now because all he did was live up to the predictions that were the basis of his current pricing. that $500 bat has a lot more room to go down than up.

not sure where his dirt cheap items are. i don't know who justin upton is but his brother's got a nice autographed gamer at LMR for $2000: http://www.lrmemo.com/product_p/bj-gu-bat-h238-crack.htm
last year was bj's first full year in the majors. he hit a walloping 24 HRs. i haven't seen power like that since a lean 'n mean candy maldonado smashed 22 for the indians in 1990. you know whose bats i see going for $2k?
https://www.digitalfm.com/gameusedbats/itemDetail.cfm?sku=3575

how about that. you can "invest" in bj upton for $2k or just grab yourself a first-ballot HOF'er and 600 HR club member right now. upton is being priced as if he's already ken griffey jr, despite the fact that griffey's already accomplished these things and upton likely never will. $2k so i can take a huge risk of upton one day being as good as griffey whereupon i'll be able to recoup my costs or i can just eliminate all risk and grab the griffey now for the same price. hooray for hype.

rudy.

GameBats
01-30-2008, 04:53 PM
Isn't Ryan Braun a third baseman?

XPFO
01-30-2008, 05:00 PM
Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

kingjammy24
01-30-2008, 05:11 PM
i imagine there are people thinking that if there's little upside to most of this modern stuff, then how is that there are entities out there making money at it.

i suppose there are a few ways you could go about it. if you go about it the honest way ala kim stigall or jim yackel and you're paying retail prices to acquire it and don't have any exclusive deals, i just don't see where the bucketloads of money is. maybe i'm missing something and someone else can enlighten me.

how are places like ESM and ASI making money? i'll leave that up to peoples imaginations.

the auction houses make money because regardless of whether an item increases or drops in value, they get a cut. for the most part, they're insulated from the fluctuations in value.

while i haven't seen their balance sheets, i imagine steiner and meigray are making money. they're exclusive purveyors of some very desireable items though. as well, they aren't paying retail prices. (i imagine though that for every jeter or lebron jersey sold and profited on, they probably lose money on the miguel cairos and daniel gibsons).

then you've got the "exclusive" perveyors who focus on rookies or third-stringers. i've already described how i believe they manage to turn a profit. "we've just signed an exclusive deal with shelby terwilliger! shelby hit .415 in appaloosa last year and was just called up to the indians! the second coming of eddie murray! get him while you can! we are the only official distributor of shelby terwilliger game-used items!". it seems they depend on rabid wily mo pena fans who must have his jersey at all costs or the armchair bill james' who have no doubt that curtis granderson is the next ken griffey jr and are willing to plunk down $5k for his glove believing that it will easily fetch $15k in 10 yrs and they'll be seen as financial geniuses.

one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up. to be honest, i don't think it's all that bad an m.o. i know i'd certainly overpay for some common jerseys. someone could've bought a 1991 devon white jersey directly from the jays for about $400 and here i'd be waving my $700 to buy it. i guess the skill in that game is ensuring that the item is rare enough that it can't be purchased elsewhere and then hoping you manage to attract some rabid fan.

maybe i'm wrong about all of this though. i'd certainly appreciate hearing from some of the more advanced flippers and "investors" on this forum.

rudy.

bigtruck260
01-30-2008, 05:11 PM
Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

Right. THE Ryan Braun put up Pujols like numbers in 133 games:

34/97/.324

Still not worth it IMO. Many Pujols items are overpriced - probably based on percieved scarcity (and the numerous fakes). Getting a bona fide legit bat might actually set you back a minimum of a grand - and Rudy is right...how much of that will really be recouped???

If I had one, it would be for display - not investment purposes...unless I somehow managed to get one for free. Not Likely.

Dave

kingjammy24
01-30-2008, 05:17 PM
Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

good god, you're right! holy smokes. two ryan brauns.

what a mess! god what i've give for an edit button right about now.


rudy.

bigtruck260
01-30-2008, 05:20 PM
one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up.

rudy.

That is the case for MANY items in the memorablia business. There are those dealers that think they have gold in the form of a bat - and will wait for someone to buy the item. For instance, several years ago, Albert Pujols was selling his game model bats signed via his website. Originally, they were listed at $799 (I should have bought 5) - they sold out quickly and the next time the stock was replenished, the price went to $999.

Here is an example of a seller who is trying to make a major return:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ALBERT-PUJOLS-AUTO-BAT-COA-PUJOLS-FAMILY-FOUNDATION_W0QQitemZ160095659250QQihZ006QQcategory Z27261QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Is the bat worth that much? Well, considering another company is selling an inferior item (not game model, but MLB auth.) for this:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ALBERT-PUJOLS-ST-LOUIS-CARDINALS-SIGNED-BLACK-LS-BAT_W0QQitemZ110108244422QQihZ001QQcategoryZ27261Q QssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

It's not such a stretch after all.
I know of a few folks that would buy the Family Foundation bat for that price...they just can't pay the $$. The bat is not even USED.

We live in strange times.

Dave

kingjammy24
01-30-2008, 05:53 PM
edit:

ok so, ryan "the hebrew hammer" braun played his first full season in '07 and did some serious damage with 34HR/97RBI/.324. nice! much better than his namesake on the royals. so, his jersey is $4k and his bat is $500.

okey dokey, now we're cooking. i still believe that my original point stands that predictions are built into the price. the $500 bat price doesn't seem as out of wack as the jersey price but there's still room for it to go down. if you wanted to turn a profit on the $500 bat and sell it for $800, then again isn't $800 a price for a borderline HOF'er or at least a bonafide superstar? for $500 (or less) taube is selling game-used bats from manny ramirez, dave winfield, chipper jones. $599 for the game-used bat of a proven commodity of vladimir guerrero. 1 year does not a superstar make. we've all seen tons of players have a couple good years. so what's the price based on? on the "promise" that braun will continue the numbers he had in '07 for the next 5 or 6 yrs. why take the risk? pick up a guerrero or a ramirez for the same price!

the $4k is really out of wack. in order to justify a $4k jersey who does braun have to become? $4k's a hefty price..a HOF'er price. now,if you're actually going to make a profit on this thing and expect to sell it at $6-7k, then who does braun need to be? examine the jerseys you could buy at $4k and at $6-7k and you'll likely find they're of players that braun has a slim chance of living up to.

again, all the money is made by GFC in the upfront speculation. the likelihood is that braun will not become the sort of superstar HOF'er that he'll need to be in order for there to be a lot more room for his jersey to exceed $4k.

rudy.

godwulf
01-30-2008, 06:46 PM
Then you are definitely a collector. Justin is better than his brother and BJ just turned the corner in the major. Did you buy all those jersey that were going for $500-700 a couple of month ago on ebay?

The seller of those two jerseys came down considerably - I think I paid $400 each, plus shipping. I paid $561 for his pink Mother's Day jersey from Visalia, and about the same each for the other four jerseys I have.

nate
01-30-2008, 08:39 PM
There are plenty of great deals out there for modern day players. Just use your knowledge of the player, do some research about his game used equipment and start looking. If you find a great deal then you are ahead of the market.

suave1477
01-30-2008, 09:30 PM
i imagine there are people thinking that if there's little upside to most of this modern stuff, then how is that there are entities out there making money at it.

i suppose there are a few ways you could go about it. if you go about it the honest way ala kim stigall or jim yackel and you're paying retail prices to acquire it and don't have any exclusive deals, i just don't see where the bucketloads of money is. maybe i'm missing something and someone else can enlighten me.

how are places like ESM and ASI making money? i'll leave that up to peoples imaginations.

the auction houses make money because regardless of whether an item increases or drops in value, they get a cut. for the most part, they're insulated from the fluctuations in value.

while i haven't seen their balance sheets, i imagine steiner and meigray are making money. they're exclusive purveyors of some very desireable items though. as well, they aren't paying retail prices. (i imagine though that for every jeter or lebron jersey sold and profited on, they probably lose money on the miguel cairos and daniel gibsons).

then you've got the "exclusive" perveyors who focus on rookies or third-stringers. i've already described how i believe they manage to turn a profit. "we've just signed an exclusive deal with shelby terwilliger! shelby hit .415 in appaloosa last year and was just called up to the indians! the second coming of eddie murray! get him while you can! we are the only official distributor of shelby terwilliger game-used items!". it seems they depend on rabid wily mo pena fans who must have his jersey at all costs or the armchair bill james' who have no doubt that curtis granderson is the next ken griffey jr and are willing to plunk down $5k for his glove believing that it will easily fetch $15k in 10 yrs and they'll be seen as financial geniuses.

one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up. to be honest, i don't think it's all that bad an m.o. i know i'd certainly overpay for some common jerseys. someone could've bought a 1991 devon white jersey directly from the jays for about $400 and here i'd be waving my $700 to buy it. i guess the skill in that game is ensuring that the item is rare enough that it can't be purchased elsewhere and then hoping you manage to attract some rabid fan.

maybe i'm wrong about all of this though. i'd certainly appreciate hearing from some of the more advanced flippers and "investors" on this forum.

rudy.

KimgJammy I agree with everything you just said, may I also add reading your posts are a pleasure. I think you are one of the most intellectual members on this board me and you think exactly a like but it always seems your able to put it into better words then me.

With that being i would also like to say the buyers sets the market value in a matter of speaking. Just as you said for a Devon White Jersey thats selling for $400 but your so hot to have you your wiling to go $700. Now you just set the value for that Jersey (in a matter of speaking) for what its going to sell for next. You might find someone who is a big Devon White fan and you show him how much you paid and your selling point is how rare the Jersey might be and he might pay $900 for a Jersey that origianlly started off at $400 and meanwhile to someone like me who could care less might offer you $2 dollars for it, but if you can find a buyer to pay the $900 and you originally up it from $400 to $700 theres your market value.

Do you agree?

sportscentury
01-31-2008, 09:15 AM
With Rickey Henderson about to become a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in 2009, I have found that many of his top items can be found at very reasonable prices. Even a beautiful pair of his early A's cleats went for a very good price on eBay recently.