The Economy and Collecting

[EurekaDave]

I'm seeing big name jerseys selling for a lot less on Ebay. I'm seeing others not selling at all. And I've gotten pennies on the dollar for a few things I've sold for space.

What have been your observations about the economy and collecting? Have you changed your collecting habits as a result?

[commando]

My oversimple view is this. I think "big" items will always fetch good money when advanced collectors with money are interested. On the other hand, items that are not scarce or overly in-demand may experience softness when average-income collectors start feeling the economic pinch.

I also believe that certain non-marquee items are exempt from the economy. Seems to me like enough collectors are interested in 1982 Gorman Thomas bats to keep the price steady, for example.

[metsbats]

Great question Dave.

I've sold most of my game used jerseys to a fellow collector who needed to complete his 86 Mets collection and almost all of my newer inventory (ie 2005-2007 Mets). Instead of using the proceeds to buy other items which is what I usually did, I paid off my home equity loan. Additionally, I changed my collecting focus to only post season bats and rare one of a kind items so that i can limit what i spend. The theory being there is not much out there within this category.

There are definitely more buys on ebay and realized prices are lower. I picked up a Moises Alou hit streak bat which Steiner originally offered for 700+ dollars for $100, a Wally Backman 88 NLCS bat for $100, and a Gil Hodges Professional model 58-61 Adirondack bat for $202.

An interesting observation is that some of the large auction houses don't see to be affected by the recession. Did you see some of the bids on the items in the latest REA auction.

David

[metsbats]

My oversimple view is this. I think "big" items will always fetch good money when advanced collectors with money are interested. On the other hand, items that are not scarce or overly in-demand may experience softness when average-income collectors start feeling the economic pinch.

I also believe that certain non-marquee items are exempt from the economy. Seems to me like enough collectors are interested in 1982 Gorman Thomas bats to keep the price steady, for example.


Commando,

Excellent points!

David

[skyking26]

I agree with the above. I have been involved in acquiring items from a large collection for a few months and all the blue chip stuff went fast and at premium dollar. I was shocked given the economy. Despite the way things are in our country, I think the passionate collector who has been involved long term still will foot the bill to fill holes in their collection. I believe the avg. ebay stuff is going to suffer.

This is a very interesting thread....

RK

[JimCaravello]

Great topic - I wrote a blog over the weekend and touched on this a little...........I believe that the vintage market is as strong as ever - all sports........I consider the vintage market to be pre-1980. Depending upon the player and sport - the 1980 - 1990 market can be good for star players and players on Dynasty teams during that period. There is just far too much supply of post 1990 GU material in the market right now and the demand is just not there to keep up with it. I think the economy has had a minor impact on this area of collecting.

I think people have become more educated too over the last few years. They are also getting more sophisticated with their GU dollar and are just not going after everything they see. They are more select and more focused than they have been in the past.

The steroid era in baseball has certainly impacted the post 1990 Bashers of Baseball - in addition, there GU equipment is everywhere........

As I wrote in my blog, I know that Willie Mays and Hank Aaron did not use steroids and their GU material is relatively scarce.........I think more and more people are realizing this and are only buying the best of the best related to post 1990 material. An Arod bat with light use is just not going to command a premium anymore. There are tons of those bats out there....but an Arod bat that has been hammered and has great provenance and was maybe used for a significant HR or hit may command a premium...........

Just some general observations.............

Jim

[kingjammy24]

i hope my thoughts don't sound too scattered or disjointed.

- re: premium pieces
it depends on what exactly is categorized as "premium", but the notion of high-end, blue-chip pieces holding value has been well-documented across almost all areas in society. i don't see why this hobby would be any different. high-end pieces are geared towards a segment of the populace that are relatively immune to dips in the economy. as is always the case, those at the bottom are hit the hardest and fastest with the effects continuing on up the ladder in decreasing increments. the
market buying a babe ruth bat is not the same market buying a jose cruz jr. bat. the lowest-end pieces will be hit the hardest and fastest because the folks who typically buy those pieces are being hit the hardest and fastest. how far up the ladder the effects will go depends entirely on the severity of the recession.

that said, i don't believe that the collecting interests of high-end collectors are focused solely on high-end pieces. many of them have niche or esoteric interests that aren't necessarily associated with expensive items. barry halper had a whole lot of inexpensive items that he clearly picked up because they fit into his personal collecting interests. it wasn't just an entire room of nothing but ruth bats and mantle jerseys.

re: supply
- i think the overall supply of items should increase simply because of people trying to cash out to pay bills. i think there are similar mass divestments every december with folks trying to pay christmas bills. i imagine other major events like births, marriages, divorces, college enrollment also result in divestments but those things don't really occur in any sort of predictable or singular time. i suppose if the economy really sinks, then divorces will increase and that should result in more divestments. again, i don't think this would apply to the high-end items because those folks don't need to sell in order to cover bills. the lower-middle end pieces would be hit. given the increasing oversupply of modern pieces, it could be a perfect storm of plummeting values. not only do you have modern pieces being pumped out at a prodigious rate but that issue then becomes compounded with folks dumping these pieces at a faster-than-normal rate. you could have a massive oversupply which would lead to some heavy price drops.

as jim mentioned, i think very unique modern pieces could still fetch a premium.

all of that said, i still can't find home jerseys from any solid starters from the 1989-1992 blue jays. i wish there was an oversupply of those items. apparently, jays fans are immune to economic dips as well. :)

rudy.

[Fnazxc0114]

the problem with today's society is credit cards. people will continue to spend as long as they have the ole plastic.

[skyking26]

the problem with today's society is credit cards. people will continue to spend as long as they have the ole plastic.
Apparently the majority of collector are unmarried. I get by with cash purchases now and then. Credit card stuff is out in the open for the whole world to see including wife and sometimes it just is not the smartest move on my part. Credit cards just do not help - and if one can't pay their statement each month, what good are they??

[metsbats]

Apparently the majority of collector are unmarried. I get by with cash purchases now and then. Credit card stuff is out in the open for the whole world to see including wife and sometimes it just is not the smartest move on my part. Credit cards just do not help - and if one can't pay their statement each month, what good are they??


The large auction houses DO NOT take credit cards. Therefore the folks with tons of disposable cash (or worse yet digging into their home equity lines of credit) are buying the big ticket items at these auctions.

David

[kingjammy24]

"the problem with today's society is credit cards. people will continue to spend as long as they have the ole plastic."

sure but previously the ole plastic was being paid off from other sources of credit, which i believe are now finally drying up. eventually, the piper has to be paid and i believe that time is now.

much of the financial exuberance of the past 10 yrs was fueled by people exploiting loose credit standards and increasing home prices. those factors have pretty much come to an end.

lenders have tightened credit standards. interest rates are rising. home equity is dropping due to falling home prices. for many, the days of home equity lines of credit are over. the tap has run dry. foreclosures are soaring and FICO scores are taking the hit. the unemployment rate is increasing while the personal savings rate is negative and at the lowest point since 1933. many who bought homes in the past few years using ARMs (which may have been the majority in many areas) are finding their home payments increasing to unsustainable levels. it's a perfect storm. if the ole plastic were such a readily available option then i think that it'd be helping to save homes but it's not. the plastic is tapped out as well or will be very soon.

"Credit cards just do not help - and if one can't pay their statement each month, what good are they??"

they're good in the sense that they allow people to live how they want; ie: without any sense of delayed rewards. you can only maintain the delusion for so long before it starts crumbling and it seems that time is rapidly approaching.

rudy.

[earlywynnfan]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Rudy was the kid who spoiled Santa for everyone, too.

Ken

[kingjammy24]

"I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Rudy was the kid who spoiled Santa for everyone, too."

:D

it all came about when i photomatched the wrapping paper on the presents to the wrapping paper in my parent's closet.

rudy.

[ChrisCavalier]

"I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Rudy was the kid who spoiled Santa for everyone, too."

:D

it all came about when i photomatched the wrapping paper on the presents to the wrapping paper in my parent's closet.

rudy.
Actually, I would wager that you did more analysis than that because the photomatch wouldn't have accounted for the fact that Santa could have used the same wrapping paper that your parents used. I'm guessing you also checked local store sales records as well as scotch tape levels on the rolls in your house before and after the Christmas season.

Again, I'm just guessing. :)

[kingjammy24]

here's a relevant article:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/personal/05/01/cashing.out.attic.ap/index.html

maybe we'll soon see people cashing out their collections.

rudy.