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View Full Version : Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?



commando
05-28-2010, 02:12 PM
It's not only an issue of supply and demand, but also a question of knowledge... In other words, who's going to remember the dozens of different uniform styles that are being worn constantly over the years? Will anyone really try to collect (or care about) this stuff years from now? I believe there will always be people to buy the common player stuff, but like cards, this stuff is probably going to be really cheap to pick up in the future.

Unless its a star player, I'd wait for the value of all the newer stuff to go down.

soxfan
05-28-2010, 05:27 PM
Love the question....

I agree as there seems to be soooo much stuff out there now in the Game used market.

I think what is going to prove to be the difference is that the pieces you can prove (photomacth, etc) as "historic" or "unique" pieces will now become the desired, and the othere "common" stuff will continue to drop in value.

I have stopped collecting "common stuff" just to have GU items and have started saving for the high end pieces.

Case in point, I have a Jose Lopez GU bat from Ichiro's 3000th hit game, and wouldnt have kept it until I was able to photomatch/video match it to his 8th HR of 2008...now that is much more appealing to have, as I wouldnt have bought a Lopez regular "gamer", and hopefully Lopez, still being young and full of talent, could have a resurgence with a new team...just like Beltre with the Sox this year.

I love GU gear, dont' get me wrong, but there is just soooooo much out there that I am worried it will eventually go the way of the baseball card...

Jeremy
macleodjeremy@hotmail.com

looking for a Beltre GU bat, the only current Sox I don't have.

Jags Fan Dan
05-28-2010, 06:29 PM
The cards were just done to death, so much so that even the little pieces of cloth in the cards were called into question. For most NFL players, you are looking at 16 game used jerseys a year. Even if a guy plays 10 years straight, thats 160 total jerseys over the span of a decade. Not exactly impossible to find, but a darn site better than the thousands of "jersey" cards churned out each year.

But I agree, some of the gamers that are bright and shiny today and commanding sick money will be worth a fraction of what they sold for recently. People are dropping 5 figures for the hot rookie QB jerseys, when for the same money, maybe less, they could be getting Marino or Elway (or name just about anybody) gamers that are always going to be valuable. For every Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, there are ten, maybe twenty (heck, maybe a 100)guys like Jeff Blake or Aaron Brooks, where they look like stars for a year or two and then fade into oblivion.

gorilla777
05-28-2010, 07:43 PM
I think that it will be much the same outcome of the card craze of 20+ years ago where it ended up the older, much more scarce (in hindsight) stuff ended up being much, much more valuable than the mass produced new card sets. It is mostly supply and demand, but the vintage bats, etc. are going to hold their value or increase possibly as I do believe the numbers of these players will look better in comparison after the recent PED inflated era. The new stuff seems like a sucker bet to me sometimes.

Ben

STLHAMMER32
05-28-2010, 07:59 PM
I think that one of the main reasons the GU cards felt such a horrible blow was because people realized that for about the same price they could go out and buy a full jersey or game bat. The card market took a hit following the strike of 1994 as well. So besides being watered down there are other factors that come into play.

Game used bats are one area i don't believe will change much. There has always been a fascination with players and their bats. Many of the players still exchange them and trade among other players. Also if you have ever seen the look of a player when they get their bat handed to them to sign....you know what I mean. Some are genuinely happy to see their old bat again and others are angry that maybe one slipped out of the clubhouse....whatever the case maybe bats are different and personal to many players. They recognize bats years and years later and could tell you if it was theirs or not.

commando
05-28-2010, 11:46 PM
Lots of people say "collect what you like," and that's exactly what I do.

It's funny, I went to high school with Andy Pettitte in Deer Park, Texas. Believe it or not, I just started collecting his cards a few months ago! I'm glad I did recently, instead of 1995 or 1996, because I consistently pay bargain prices for his cards in the year 2010. I'm not saying this a perfect analogy to GU items, but like many of you said, quality older game used items are sometimes a BARGAIN compared to the new, flashy stuff.

legaleagle92481
05-29-2010, 01:39 AM
The market for scrubs will always be on the low side because they are scrubs and they appeal to a limited number of collectors which decreases as time goes on and they leave the league. Only a die hard fan is going to base a collection on a common player who retired five years ago. The superstars the market can never be watered down. Someone will always want a Jeter or Kobe jersey. The issue is price though as only a limited number of people have the money and desire to spend 100s or 1000s on a jersey and once those willing have theirs the retail companies will be forced to drop prices to move the rest. If you notice companies like JO are already starting to do this. Which sucks for those who bought at the higher price and now will lose money.

Mark17
05-29-2010, 08:37 AM
Just as card companies realized they had the ability to print money in the mid-late 1980s and started running the presses virtually non-stop, MLB is now doing the same with GU equipment.

Back in the 1960s, a player might typically have 2 road and 2 home jerseys a year, and H&B records show most HOF hitters ordering around 100 or fewer bats a season, and the lesser guys many fewer. When I got my Mudcat Grant bat signed a couple years ago, Jim told me he only ordered 6 bats a season, and he was a good hitting starting pitcher.

Also, like baseball cards, lots of those cracked bats from the 1960s found their way into the garbage.

So... I think the answer has to be "yes." When a team sees it as profitable to potentially put 50 (or more) different jerseys on Joe Mauer a season, there will have to be some market correction. Meanwhile, the older GU stuff, like vintage cards, will remain solid.

To illustrate the point I'm going to start a new thread, to see what forum members estimate Joe Mauer's annual GU bat and jersey counts are. I'm very curious...

coxfan
05-29-2010, 10:17 AM
An interesting topic, as items differ in how much teams can vary the supply:

1) The supply of game-used bats and gloves should be relatively fixed.

2) However, teams can vary the number of game-used balls for sale, since the ball boys can be told to reduce the number they throw to fans and/or save for BP in order to send more to the shops.

3) There could be a nearly unlimited supply of game-used clothing items like jerseys, since teams can produce and use these as much as they like (and can sell).

4) The number of bases can be increased also, to a reasonable limit (no more than 54 per game on special occasions; probably 9 per game in normal use).

Thus, teams will continue to vary the supply to fit the demand. When sales are too slow or prices too low, they'll dispose of g-u items. But when things are rolling, they can increase the supply at little risk.

legaleagle92481
05-29-2010, 10:54 AM
An interesting topic, as items differ in how much teams can vary the supply:

1) The supply of game-used bats and gloves should be relatively fixed.

2) However, teams can vary the number of game-used balls for sale, since the ball boys can be told to reduce the number they throw to fans and/or save for BP in order to send more to the shops.

3) There could be a nearly unlimited supply of game-used clothing items like jerseys, since teams can produce and use these as much as they like (and can sell).

4) The number of bases can be increased also, to a reasonable limit (no more than 54 per game on special occasions; probably 9 per game in normal use).

Thus, teams will continue to vary the supply to fit the demand. When sales are too slow or prices too low, they'll dispose of g-u items. But when things are rolling, they can increase the supply at little risk.

Your second point is actually happening I went to a Mets-Yanks game last Saturday at Citifield and I was sitting in the fourth row right near the ballboy, the entire game he gave away two baseballs. Even kids were trying to get them from him and he was refusing to give them one. Jason Bay caught the last out of a couple of innings and he ran right past us and took the ball to the dugout despite the chants from the crowd to toss it into the crowd. I noticed balls from the game were for sale for $100 plus dollars as a fixed price on MLB auctions so I assume that was why they were being so stingy.

legaleagle92481
05-29-2010, 10:59 AM
Just as card companies realized they had the ability to print money in the mid-late 1980s and started running the presses virtually non-stop, MLB is now doing the same with GU equipment.

Back in the 1960s, a player might typically have 2 road and 2 home jerseys a year, and H&B records show most HOF hitters ordering around 100 or fewer bats a season, and the lesser guys many fewer. When I got my Mudcat Grant bat signed a couple years ago, Jim told me he only ordered 6 bats a season, and he was a good hitting starting pitcher.

Also, like baseball cards, lots of those cracked bats from the 1960s found their way into the garbage.

So... I think the answer has to be "yes." When a team sees it as profitable to potentially put 50 (or more) different jerseys on Joe Mauer a season, there will have to be some market correction. Meanwhile, the older GU stuff, like vintage cards, will remain solid.

To illustrate the point I'm going to start a new thread, to see what forum members estimate Joe Mauer's annual GU bat and jersey counts are. I'm very curious...

Bats have a superstious factor. If a guy is on a hot streak with a bat he won't stop using it because the team wants him to use another.

commando
05-29-2010, 11:14 AM
I was watching one of those video "box breaks" on YouTube, and a guy pulled a one-of-one Richard Nixon signature. He would up selling it on eBay, and it only sold for $600 (which seemed to be surprise to those commenting on the video). Of course the guy said he should have planned the auction better, because it ended on a weekend, etc.... I disagree somewhat, because only serious collectors would be interested in this kind of card in the first place, and it doesn't really matter when an auction ends if serious collectors want to bid. I believe the reality here is that more Nixon one-of-one cards will be printed, even if part of a different set. Serious collectors know this.

Maybe the winning bidder had a maximum bid of $2.000 on the card, but if there was no one else to bid against him, he walks away with the card for $600.

Mark17
05-29-2010, 11:15 AM
Bats have a superstious factor. If a guy is on a hot streak with a bat he won't stop using it because the team wants him to use another.

Right, I agree. The Twins aren't going to pull Joe's favorite stick from him just to make a few hundred dollars. They make a great deal more money by letting him hit, and keeping him happy.

Here's a question: If a player has a favorite bat, does he risk cracking it in pre-game batting practice? It seems to me a team could create a lot of gamers simply by asking players to use different bats during practice. They wouldn't have tons of use, or good thick coats of tar, but the player could put his number on the knob and they could be sold as "gamers."

Also, again using Mauer as my example, he has an indoor batting cage that he uses year-round. He likely uses his pro model bats, and they could eventually find their way onto the market as well. They would be his pro bats, and used by him (just not in games.)

When a new piece of wood, with a little tar and some ball marks, and a little number written on the knob, can be sold for hundreds of dollars, and there is nothing illegal about it, my guess is, it's happening. The question is, to what extent?

TwinLakesPark
01-21-2015, 08:49 PM
So are we peaking yet or cam the market absorb more?

flota89
01-21-2015, 09:39 PM
So much of this depends on the team and the player. While the Twins may sell 50 jerseys from a star player, the Cardinals (the team I collect) doesn't offer hardly anything. I see less than three Yadi gamers offered most years. Around the same for other stars such as Holliday or Wainwright. This leads to some really heavily used jerseys. For these types of players and teams, I see good value. But when St. Louis starts auctioning 10+ Holliday gamers a year, the prices will fall.

Vikings_Collector
01-21-2015, 10:31 PM
The cards were just done to death, so much so that even the little pieces of cloth in the cards were called into question. For most NFL players, you are looking at 16 game used jerseys a year. Even if a guy plays 10 years straight, thats 160 total jerseys over the span of a decade. Not exactly impossible to find, but a darn site better than the thousands of "jersey" cards churned out each year.

But I agree, some of the gamers that are bright and shiny today and commanding sick money will be worth a fraction of what they sold for recently. People are dropping 5 figures for the hot rookie QB jerseys, when for the same money, maybe less, they could be getting Marino or Elway (or name just about anybody) gamers that are always going to be valuable. For every Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, there are ten, maybe twenty (heck, maybe a 100)guys like Jeff Blake or Aaron Brooks, where they look like stars for a year or two and then fade into oblivion.

However, if you're referring to football, there are far less than 16 gamers per season. Of course this depends on the player, but I have seen that jerseys are definitely recycled for games, and used more than once.

solarlottry
01-22-2015, 01:26 AM
49ers items are still selling for good money. A 1994 Merton Hanks throwback sold for 3000$ and Steve Young sold for over 6000$ in the last big Heritage auction. Prior to that a 1994 Watters sold for almost 4000$ in a recent MEARS auction. I don't consider Watters a scrub but nor do I consider him a HOFer. 4000$ for his jersey is a great price is you are the seller!

Vintage 49er items always command big dollars. Even the backups routinely run 300-500$ per shirt if they ever surface. There are players I would pay big bucks for who most people would consider a scrub but I need that player for the collection.

Even the most recent 49er team did not sell many shirts this season. They only sold a handful on NFL Auctions. I have multiple shirts from the last few seasons that were worn for multiple games.

I think that as long as the NFL is so popular the interest in GU will be there as some leave but others join the hobby.

Always buying 49er game worn items.

Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

3arod13
01-22-2015, 07:09 AM
I think what is going to prove to be the difference is that the pieces you can prove (photomacth, etc) as "historic" or "unique" pieces will now become the desired, and the other "common" stuff will continue to drop in value.

+1

jeffaary
01-22-2015, 12:31 PM
I think the prices for common players will drop as the generation who buy their stuff lose interest or die and no one cares about those players any more. Especially now that players have multiple jerseys per season instead of 2 like they did in the past. Babe Ruth jerseys will bring $$$ forever, however.

Here's the thing, though. If you collect what you love, who cares? I collect a special niche that probably no one else cares about; Boston pro jerseys of players who went to Ohio State (my family moved from Ohio to Boston when I was 4). There's some very good players in my collection, but no hall of famers. Since I care about those jerseys more than someone who sees it as just a Patriots jersey of a good player I probably overpay for the items I buy, but I don't care. I didn't buy them to make money. 40 years from now my kids may or may not recoup the money I spent on these items, but I enjoy the hell out of them.

GoTigers
01-22-2015, 03:56 PM
Jeter was one of, if not the most, marketed stars in the modern era in terms of GU. He also had a long and mostly healthy career. Over 20yrs he had 12,602 PA's. If he broke/switched bats every 20 AB's that means there are 630 legit Jeter Gamers out there. That may be over saturation for a common player.. But to me that is still a very limited supply for a star.

Even if he switched lumber every 15 PA's... That's 840 bats. A drop in the bucket compared to cards. Just imagine if Topps was the only card company and said they were only going to produce 840 cards of Jeter.. Ever. How much would those be worth?

teddy406
01-22-2015, 04:04 PM
I think that it will be much the same outcome of the card craze of 20+ years ago where it ended up the older, much more scarce (in hindsight) stuff ended up being much, much more valuable than the mass produced new card sets. It is mostly supply and demand, but the vintage bats, etc. are going to hold their value or increase possibly as I do believe the numbers of these players will look better in comparison after the recent PED inflated era. The new stuff seems like a sucker bet to me sometimes.

I agree with Ben. Vintage is better for investment and for fun (for me). The old saying Supply and Demand. Maybe there are 20 game used Doerr bats out there total. But there will be thousands of Arod, Pujols, and Trout items. Just my opinion.

bravesfanjd
01-22-2015, 06:30 PM
It's an interesting theory and one that may happen. That's why I collect players I want to have in my collection because I know I'll never be able to recoup my money. Although I assume if you collect stars of sports and probably focus on football and basketball you may be able to make money as the kids who grow up idolizing the players now become adults in the future with disposable income. I myself am collecting 90s era players form when I was younger I am focusing on the Braves because they are my favorite team but I am also buying Dodger players like Karros and Mondesi because I went to Dodger stadium my whole life and I remeber seeing those guys play live every baseball game I went to as much as I collect the current guys and I do whenever I buy a player from the 90s I always get a little more excited.

I have always felt the biggest issue with sports items as investments is that people have to have disposable income to buy it and when things go bad the market gets flooded because everybody sells what they have and you can't sell your stuff because the people who regularly buy it aren't because things are so bad. I really feel even though as a collector and finding out how affordable sports collectables can be depending on your goals the average person only sees the mainstream articles about the 300k jersey or bat selling at auction and so they don't think they can be part of the hobby so with more of the same items like 50 player bats in a year being released yes I think it will cause some form of over saturation because the people who collect these items is a smaller group then most realize

jpipes
02-01-2015, 01:18 AM
Certainly can't speak for baseball but in the NFL (and the Packer specifically) they issue two road and two home jerseys a season. Not a game but season. That means there are far fewer Packer game used jerseys floating around. And those offered direct from the team are even more rare.

commando
02-01-2015, 02:24 AM
The area of collecting I pay the most attention to is NFL jerseys from the 1980s. I have noticed that game used shirts from this era 1) aren't available in large quantities whatsoever, and 2) generally sell for low prices when they do come on the market, when you consider how scarce these jerseys really are.

I believe the game used hobby may be smaller than some of us realize. Fans seem happy to pay $200 for a retail authentic jersey, while they could pay that same $200 or less for one that was actually worn by a player. Of course, the retail jersey will feature a current team star or team legend, while the game used jersey will have been worn by a common player or semi-star for that price.

I know that certain teams are exceptions, but in general I believe that GU football items from the 80s are undervalued. I have also noticed the same lack of demand for baseball bats from the 1980s. You can find tons of '80s GU bats from starting players that can't sell for $40 on eBay. Any given player probably has very few bats floating around these days, but the collector demand for them is even less.

Perhaps the average fan is wired differently than the game used collector. It may not make sense to buy a bat that is covered in pine tar and has a 12-inch crack down the handle!