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rangersfan1214
08-15-2010, 03:09 PM
Hamilton is tearing everyone up this season and on his way to the AL MVP probably but he's already 30 and only had 2 good career years and probably not be able to last much longer so that kind of dampens his HOF chances. What do you all think about his chances?

geoff
08-15-2010, 03:15 PM
Way to Early to Tell Yet.He is One Heck of A Player though.

yankees506
08-15-2010, 03:17 PM
this thread only needs one reply and ill do the honors, his chances are slim and none and slim just got on the train to not-in-this-life-ville. so to your question, he has NO CHANCE

Dach0sen0ne
08-15-2010, 03:28 PM
I'd say probably no, but he is having a great season.

sportscrazy13
08-15-2010, 06:06 PM
Slim chance... I think he'll be remembered for a a few monster years.

I wouldn't give him the MVP yet. Him, AROD or Cabrera... who ever has the best finish down the stretch.

Fnazxc0114
08-15-2010, 06:24 PM
If he hadnt of lost the 4-5 years id say he would probably be on pace. Injury prone year followed by a great year, followed by injury year, followed by a great year wont be enought to reach 3000 hits, 500 hrs. I think hes coming up on 30. He would have to average 35 hr's a year through his 30's to have a shot. The last guys who did that have all used steroids, or have been suspected of using so there is very little chance. All that coming from a Hamilton collector.

STLHAMMER32
08-15-2010, 06:30 PM
It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers, however this guy is so freakishly talented that you just never know. To me there is two ways to get in the hall, either you have the longetiviy to reach the big milestones like 3000 hits etc or you just flat out dominate year in and year out where there is no question your the best player in baseball. It's possible that he could rack up a few mvps and even do something crazy like a triple crown....if he dominates for an extended period there will be a shot for him. He has a huge following and an incredible story..no PED's and make no mistake about it the guy has hall of fame abilities, those factors at least give him a shot.

As far as the MVP talk goes, if anyone says he isn't the mvp at least up until this point I suggest watching the Rangers each night. His defense this year is what separates him from the other potential candidates. This guy is batting over .360 and is the best outfielder every night he takes the field. He will steal a base in key situations and take an extra base to get in scoring postition. This year he has put it all together, every aspect of the game....you could argue Cabrera possibly but to do that you would have to be talking hitting alone because he has not put together the overall game that Hamilton has.

joelsabi
08-15-2010, 06:55 PM
It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers, however this guy is so freakishly talented that you just never know. To me there is two ways to get in the hall, either you have the longetiviy to reach the big milestones like 3000 hits etc or you just flat out dominate year in and year out where there is no question your the best player in baseball. It's possible that he could rack up a few mvps and even do something crazy like a triple crown....if he dominates for an extended period there will be a shot for him. He has a huge following and an incredible story..no PED's and make no mistake about it the guy has hall of fame abilities, those factors at least give him a shot.

As far as the MVP talk goes, if anyone says he isn't the mvp at least up until this point I suggest watching the Rangers each night. His defense this year is what separates him from the other potential candidates. This guy is batting over .360 and is the best outfielder every night he takes the field. He will steal a base in key situations and take an extra base to get in scoring postition. This year he has put it all together, every aspect of the game....you could argue Cabrera possibly but to do that you would have to be talking hitting alone because he has not put together the overall game that Hamilton has.

good point. he has not reached the 100 HR mark and almost 30. he would need to put in Sandy Koufax type dominance in his 30's to have a chance. Then at least he could get on the ballot.

I would vote for Cano for MVP. great defense and hitting this year from the second baseman.

Fnazxc0114
08-15-2010, 08:10 PM
If you want to see the best single game performance by a non pitcher from this year watch fridays game on mlbtv. Andre Dawson made the hall so there may be hope, but like stlhammer said he needs to put together about 6-8 mvp caliber seasons to be considered.

Fnazxc0114
08-15-2010, 08:15 PM
The only batting stat cano is in the top 5 in batting is avg, and hamilton has him by about 40 points. Hope hambone keeps it up, because daddy wants to go to a playoff game.

good point. he has not reached the 100 HR mark and almost 30. he would need to put in Sandy Koufax type dominance in his 30's to have a chance. Then at least he could get on the ballot.

I would vote for Cano for MVP. great defense and hitting this year from the second baseman.

sox83cubs84
08-15-2010, 09:14 PM
I'm not optimistic...Josh is a fantastic player but, with his late start as a MLB regular, I fear that he just won't have a long enough career to make it in via the writers ballot. Maybe he can pull a Ralph Kiner...incredible dominance for a decade or so that he might be considered by the Veterans Committee of the future, as long as it isn't comprised of the narrow-minded elitists that populate it currently.

Dave Miedema

legaleagle92481
08-15-2010, 11:26 PM
No chance. He has a few factors working against him.

1. He got a late start for reasons which were solely his fault so his final numbers will not be Hall worthy. A slugging outfielder who hits under 400 career homers is getting nowhere Hall wise. When you factor in the natural decline that age has on all players and his propensity for injuries 400 homers will be hard for him to reach, 350 might even be a streach.

2. He plays in a ballpark that is an offensive hotbed where players put up huge numbers year after year which the voters will take into account.

3. The domiance argument does not work. Pujols and Arod domianted this era. Can anyone really say that Josh is more domiant than Cabera, Ryan Howard or Joe Mauer or some others? Plus he has played four big league seasons. He has had one decent season, two great ones and one poor, injury riddled one. Not quite domiance of an era. Also is he as domiant as a Steve Garvey, Dale Murphy or Don mattingly were in their eras? Those were all MVP winning guys who had some monster years but whose overall numbers fell short of the Hall and who could not get in as domianators. Unlike a Kiner or a Jim Rice he has not domianted the league leaders categories year in and year out for a signifcant time period.

As far as this year I predict he wins MVP. Cano is the fourth best player in his own infield. Cabera has last year's incident still fresh in the writers minds on a team that wont make the playoffs. So I think with the division win and his numbers he wins going away.

joelsabi
08-16-2010, 12:06 AM
No chance. He has a few factors working against him.

1. He got a late start for reasons which were solely his fault so his final numbers will not be Hall worthy. A slugging outfielder who hits under 400 career homers is getting nowhere Hall wise. When you factor in the natural decline that age has on all players and his propensity for injuries 400 homers will be hard for him to reach, 350 might even be a streach.

2. He plays in a ballpark that is an offensive hotbed where players put up huge numbers year after year which the voters will take into account.

3. The domiance argument does not work. Pujols and Arod domianted this era. Can anyone really say that Josh is more domiant than Cabera, Ryan Howard or Joe Mauer or some others? Plus he has played four big league seasons. He has had one decent season, two great ones and one poor, injury riddled one. Not quite domiance of an era. Also is he as domiant as a Steve Garvey, Dale Murphy or Don mattingly were in their eras? Those were all MVP winning guys who had some monster years but whose overall numbers fell short of the Hall and who could not get in as domianators. Unlike a Kiner or a Jim Rice he has not domianted the league leaders categories year in and year out for a signifcant time period.

As far as this year I predict he wins MVP. Cano is the fourth best player in his own infield. Cabera has last year's incident still fresh in the writers minds on a team that wont make the playoffs. So I think with the division win and his numbers he wins going away.

I go with the simpleton writers approach which is best player on the best team should be the MVP. Yankees have the best record and Cano is their best player this year. Cano and Gardner carried the Yankees in June while Tex and ARod were ineffective. Cano is a secord half player so he should keep it up.

Cabrera is good. He carried my fantasy baseball team this year.

suave1477
08-16-2010, 11:18 AM
I think everyone missed the big picture here which Legal did touch the subject for a bit.

Even if Hamilton was to come close to sniffing the steps of the HALL.

He will not make it in.

People forget just because he didn't take PED'S. He was a drug addict and alcoholic. Which will plague any kind of desicion.

Next to that I will go with I believe it was the second or third posters response. Slim to none.

joelsabi
08-16-2010, 11:25 AM
I think everyone missed the big picture here which Legal did touch the subject for a bit.



I think we understood the big picture way before Legal spoke extensively. Read STLHAMMER32.

suave1477
08-16-2010, 11:39 AM
Joel I did read STLHammer he didn't mention Hamiltons drug addiction and alcoholism when he started in baseball. Unless I am missing something.

joelsabi
08-16-2010, 11:42 AM
Joel I did read STLHammer he didn't mention Hamiltons drug addiction and alcoholism when he started in baseball. Unless I am missing something.

first sentence. "It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers" , implying way short of the 500 HR milestone which could be applied to him since he has no connection to PED. Its not a big deal to argue about it just that you think everyone missed the big picture when it's obvious.

STLHAMMER32
08-16-2010, 11:51 AM
I think everyone missed the big picture here which Legal did touch the subject for a bit.

Even if Hamilton was to come close to sniffing the steps of the HALL.

He will not make it in.

People forget just because he didn't take PED'S. He was a drug addict and alcoholic. Which will plague any kind of desicion.

Next to that I will go with I believe it was the second or third posters response. Slim to none.

I think you are way off on this one....He did not cheat the game, he cheated himself and its that human element that people can relate to and forgive....He is very popular in every city the Rangers visit and always answers questions openly and honestly with media.

While his drug abuse will ultimately prevent him from reaching huge milestone numbers, his story has become not a sad tale of drug abuse and a waste of a life but rather a story of INSPIRATION. His story has offered HOPE to many and has touched the lives of more people than you could possibly imagine. EVERY single player, umpire, writer, voter and fan can relate to drug abuse because it has impacted family or friends in some way.

cjclong
08-16-2010, 01:58 PM
Suave, I think that unfortunately Hamilton's drug use will likely keep him out of the HOF, but not for the reason you mention. The drugs kept him out of baseball which may very well keep him from reaching the career numbers he needs. Also, there may be long term effects on his health. People are negative on PED's because the look on it as cheating. Everyone knows that cocaine and other drugs are the oppisite of cheating, they harm your perfromance. It like running a race with a weight tied to your ankle. The sad thing is, we will never know how good Hamilton could have been without the damage he did to himself. But the fact that he has frankly acknowleged it and appears to have overcome it is something that I think accounts for part of his popularity. He was voted into the All Star game by the fans last year when he acknowledged his numbers did not deserve it. If he were able to play long enough and put up good enough numbers I think the HOF voters would look at it as triumphing over adversity. Everyone loves the prodigal son story. But this whole question is way ahead of its time. You can't really talk about any players HOF possibllty when he has only played three and a half years and one of them was a poor one.

suave1477
08-16-2010, 02:02 PM
first sentence. "It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers" , implying way short of the 500 HR milestone which could be applied to him since he has no connection to PED. Its not a big deal to argue about it just that you think everyone missed the big picture when it's obvious.


Ok well in that case your assuming thats what he was implying. I was just bringing it to light. I am not arguing about it I was merely just saying I think people forget about that part since it was some time ago.

suave1477
08-16-2010, 02:05 PM
I think you are way off on this one....He did not cheat the game, he cheated himself and its that human element that people can relate to and forgive....He is very popular in every city the Rangers visit and always answers questions openly and honestly with media.

While his drug abuse will ultimately prevent him from reaching huge milestone numbers, his story has become not a sad tale of drug abuse and a waste of a life but rather a story of INSPIRATION. His story has offered HOPE to many and has touched the lives of more people than you could possibly imagine. EVERY single player, umpire, writer, voter and fan can relate to drug abuse because it has impacted family or friends in some way.


I never said he cheated the game I agree he cheated himself. And I do agree it is an inspirational story of what he has over come I am just saying that if you want to look at is as a positive story of overcoming something you did to yourself or not in the end it will still be looked upon by the writers as "taking drugs" which I do not believe they feel would be a good thing to promote into the Hall whether he over came them or not.
That's just my opinion!!

joelsabi
08-16-2010, 02:14 PM
Ok well in that case your assuming thats what he was implying. I was just bringing it to light. I am not arguing about it I was merely just saying I think people forget about that part since it was some time ago.

jason,

i agree.

i think most people thought he was another wasted draft pick and now he is giving himself a second chance and he has been gracious in his accomplishments. even josh hamilton admits that his past problems are not behind him, that he must fight temptation on a daily basis. i think most people can relate to his struggles and are rooting for him.

to put it in perspective, hamilton and pujols are the same age. one is closing in on 100 and the other closing in on 400.

STLHAMMER32
08-16-2010, 02:42 PM
I never said he cheated the game I agree he cheated himself. And I do agree it is an inspirational story of what he has over come I am just saying that if you want to look at is as a positive story of overcoming something you did to yourself or not in the end it will still be looked upon by the writers as "taking drugs" which I do not believe they feel would be a good thing to promote into the Hall whether he over came them or not.
That's just my opinion!!

It's not the drug use you are promoting into the Hall, its the player. Personal issues and the game I believe are two distinct things. The hall should be and is about the players ability and their contribution to the game. If you are going to get into personal issues than start removing inductees now because the Hall has plenty of Non-Saints. My point is Josh's story has been a positive one so far with many people including those in the game today talking to him about their own problems or a friend's problems. He is making a positive impact that he wouldn't have been able to make without his own personal issues in the past.

To say he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues makes no sense to me.

I don't think anyone has overlooked his past, I think thats what makes it so incredible that he is doing what he is. His story has been what has made him popular to the extent he is....I'm not sure what your statement about everyone not seeing the big picture is all about?

suave1477
08-16-2010, 03:25 PM
It's not the drug use you are promoting into the Hall, its the player. Personal issues and the game I believe are two distinct things. The hall should be and is about the players ability and their contribution to the game. If you are going to get into personal issues than start removing inductees now because the Hall has plenty of Non-Saints. My point is Josh's story has been a positive one so far with many people including those in the game today talking to him about their own problems or a friend's problems. He is making a positive impact that he wouldn't have been able to make without his own personal issues in the past.

To say he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues makes no sense to me.

I don't think anyone has overlooked his past, I think thats what makes it so incredible that he is doing what he is. His story has been what has made him popular to the extent he is....I'm not sure what your statement about everyone not seeing the big picture is all about?

As far as we should look at players promoting the game. Well no one stands out more than McGwire Bonds Sosa because that's what they did. Although they did it cheating, they still promoted the game when it was at an all time low.

I never said he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues. I said in general that Even if he did come close to sniff the Hall that he wouldnt make it in. I was referring more to his stats , longevity and where he is now with his stats. He would have to have back to back to back super star years for along time to come close.
Example as the other member mentioned Pujols at the same age is closing in on 400hr's while Hamilton is closing in on a 100. Huge difference.

STLHAMMER32
08-16-2010, 03:35 PM
As far as we should look at players promoting the game. Well no one stands out more than McGwire Bonds Sosa because that's what they did. Although they did it cheating, they still promoted the game when it was at an all time low.

I never said he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues. I said in general that Even if he did come close to sniff the Hall that he wouldnt make it in. I was referring more to his stats , longevity and where he is now with his stats. He would have to have back to back to back super star years for along time to come close.
Example as the other member mentioned Pujols at the same age is closing in on 400hr's while Hamilton is closing in on a 100. Huge difference.

Those players you mentioned did promote the game, although Bonds was pretty much a villain while Sosa and Mac were being rooted for during their chase of history. The huge, obvious problem is that they did it while cheating. If players cheat and enhance artificially their abilities or violate rules like betting than it definitely affects outcomes, statistics and records....much tougher to debate their hall worthiness...

From the way you worded things it came across that even if he put up the numbers and was close to being a hall of famer, his past would make the voters deny him...if I misread that I apologize.

legaleagle92481
08-16-2010, 04:38 PM
I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.

joelsabi
08-16-2010, 04:49 PM
I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.


25-29 are considered peak years according to Bill James. Players on PED's had their peaks outside this range.

STLHAMMER32
08-16-2010, 06:43 PM
I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.

The debate is what is his chances.....you have it at 0 and so does Suave it looks like. I am saying there is at least a very small 1-2% chance he has a stretch that allows him a chance to be considered. I'm not looking at 400 as the key number, yes it's a nice number but a player could dominate and win back-to-back triple crowns, win mvps, numberous gold gloves and have 300 hrs while batting .330 lifetime in a non-steroid era and that would be enough for me.

You keep comparing him to guys, this age or that age too me that doesn't matter. Josh spent 4 years completely out of baseballl, nothing...and was a crack addict who came close to killing himself on several occasions..how can you compare the two is beyond me..yes that is a late start I would say.

Last thing I will say about this is, if you think there is a 0% Chance Josh Hamilton could put together a string of years that could possibly get him recognized as a Hall of Famer ......then I bet you also thought there was a 0% chance a crack addict that hadn't swung a bat in several years could play 15 games of minor league ball, never playing a game above AA in his life..become the MVP of the American League 4 years into his baseball comeback. Its a very slim chance that Hamilton can put together a stretch good enough to make him hall worthy, but after seeing what he has done I will not say it's impossible.

legaleagle92481
08-16-2010, 09:37 PM
The debate is what is his chances.....you have it at 0 and so does Suave it looks like. I am saying there is at least a very small 1-2% chance he has a stretch that allows him a chance to be considered. I'm not looking at 400 as the key number, yes it's a nice number but a player could dominate and win back-to-back triple crowns, win mvps, numberous gold gloves and have 300 hrs while batting .330 lifetime in a non-steroid era and that would be enough for me.

You keep comparing him to guys, this age or that age too me that doesn't matter. Josh spent 4 years completely out of baseballl, nothing...and was a crack addict who came close to killing himself on several occasions..how can you compare the two is beyond me..yes that is a late start I would say.

Last thing I will say about this is, if you think there is a 0% Chance Josh Hamilton could put together a string of years that could possibly get him recognized as a Hall of Famer ......then I bet you also thought there was a 0% chance a crack addict that hadn't swung a bat in several years could play 15 games of minor league ball, never playing a game above AA in his life..become the MVP of the American League 4 years into his baseball comeback. Its a very slim chance that Hamilton can put together a stretch good enough to make him hall worthy, but after seeing what he has done I will not say it's impossible.

Wow that is quite the scenario. His current career BA is .310, so far he has zero mvps, triple crowns or gold gloves. And 300 homers is 213 homers away which is about a solid seven years away based on his current pace. What you say could be said about almost any player. Warren Spahn won 363 games after his 28th birthday for example. Jose Bautista could slug 40 homers a year for the next decade and make the hall on the first ballot. I would never say someone has a zero percent chance until he hangs it up I just think too many things have to break a certain way for it to happen. Alot of players have had some amazing years and never sniffed the Hall. Roger Maris, Denny Mcclain, Dale Murphy, Don mattingly, dwight gooden are a few that come to mind. Now years later does any of those players look like a HOFER? To me the discussion should not be seriously had until someone has had seven or eight HOF caliber seasons until then it is just pure speculation.

cjclong
08-17-2010, 08:17 AM
You are right it is pure speculation, but I think that was what the writer of this thread was inviting us to do.

Fnazxc0114
08-17-2010, 08:19 AM
Something to think about if he never makes the hall. Ive spent thousands on hamilton stuff. Not for the hope that he will make the hall, but because of his story. Also, ive never seen a player on my team who has his ability. Whether he has a shot or not, will not affect what i buy in the future. Hopefully he will be with my team for years to come and i can keep buying his stuff, and hopefully he can stay healthy over the next ten years and lead my team to the playoffs several times. I view him as being the center piece of the rangers future. Ive never been to a playoff game, and as long as he delivers he will be a HOF'er in my eyes. Maybe not mlb hof'er but a rangers hof'er which isnt realy saying much, but it means a lot for a fan that has never realy gotten to watch meaningful baseball in sept, and oct. I know the rangers made the playoffs in the 90's but i was worried about chasing tail so i missed it. lol

Fnazxc0114
08-17-2010, 03:04 PM
heres a great article about the year josh is having.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/08/17/josh.hamilton/

STLHAMMER32
08-17-2010, 03:15 PM
heres a great article about the year josh is having.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/08/17/josh.hamilton/

Great article. Friday's game was the most well-rounded, jaw dropping show put on by a single player in quite some time. That game exemplified why he is not only the Ranger's mvp but the leagues mvp as well.

Fnazxc0114
08-17-2010, 04:57 PM
One thing the article didnt mention was the 100 or so autos he probably signed that day as well.