the current state of the market and the future

[salukidave]

I wanted to see what everybody thought about the current state of the game-used memorabilia market and its future. Obviously the hobby, like everything else, took a big hit during the recession, but are prices starting to rise a bit like home prices?

I heard a non-collector host on sports radio say the market is not like it used to be in part because the younger generation isn't into sports as much as previous ones were. That, combined with the public's general knowledge about the extent of the forgery problem, has lessened interest in memorabilia. If true, that doesn't bode well for the long-term value of our collections.

What do you think?

[ChiBosox05]

That's partially true about kids not being into sports as much. Ipad, internet, and video games are some of the ones to thank. It's tough for me to try and convince my nephew to a ball game.

What I see nowadays is that the memorabilia market has become so lucrative that lots of pros sign contracts with certain companies and sign less and less at the stadium. The problem with that is that those companies get so greedy that only people with deep pockets can afford their products. Can the average working man really afford to pay $350 plus for a Jeter baseball of $1000 for a Jordan basketball?

I've been collecting autographs for years now. It seems like less and less players sign. Also, it seems like most believe their sig will end up on ebay. Thankfully, their are still those that do take the time for us fans.

Imho, the market isn't going back up....just that prices are ridiculously going up. I never buy autographs, except for the ones that have passed away or legends like Aaron and Mays, who command insane prices.

Just my .03 cents.:D

[toddhead]

I am as far from an expert in this field as you can get, but even my novice eye can see that the future of game used memorabilia is in the officially authenticated items (MLB, NFL, NBA, etc...). The prices these go for compared to non-authenticated items clearly show that trend.

[ChiBosox05]

I am as far from an expert in this field as you can get, but even my novice eye can see that the future of game used memorabilia is in the officially authenticated items (MLB, NFL, NBA, etc...). The prices these go for compared to non-authenticated items clearly show that trend.


I second that. Everything you see now is "authenticated". Go to mlb.com and you'll see everything with and authenticated sticker....bottles, corks, wristbands, jockstraps, sunflower seeds, etc.

Again, certain players sign with certain companies, who then charge outrageous prices for sigs and game used / issued memorabilia.

[commando]

As a general rule, you don't want to be the first person to buy a newly-released item, because you're going to be the person that pays full retail. Of course, if you love the item and think the price is fair, then by all means go right ahead. But since you're specifically asking about "the market," I will say that most game used/issued items sell for less when they appear the second and third time around on eBay, Game Used Universe and other sites. The authenticated pieces are no exception.

[rufusandherschel]

I've often thought about that question(s) and in my opinion, I see the memorabilia market, especially jerseys, going the way of baseball cards. The vintage items, e.g., jerseys, bats, will hold, or increase over time in value because of the nature/type of the collectors of those items. The newer, more recent material, on the other hand, will drop/fall in value because of the sheer abundance of those products. Collectors of the latter items/products will 'come and go' just like the card collectors, Just my opinions.

[aallanson]

It is a very interesting topic.

I am new to game used collecting. I am a recovering sportscard collecting addict (with the occasional relapse :) ) who wanted something more out of collecting. The goals of my collection are several, none of which are how much are these things going to be worth in the future. I got burned many, many times in the card collecting world when I either bought to flip or bought as speculation (aka "I am going to get rich on Kevin Seitzer rookie cards"). I don't want to do that anymore. I am getting a little older and my wife and I just bought our first place. It is our home. I want to decorate my basement with game used items from the first sport I ever loved: baseball. I also want to preserve a little of the history of the game. Like many have said, the modern game used jersey market seems saturated. They seem to create collectibles just to sell them. Players changing jerseys every quarter just so the nfl can sell 4 jerseys per game as game worn is nonsense. I didn't sign up for that. It took me a long time to figure out what I was going to collect as far as game worn collectibles go. I decided to collect game worn college baseball jerseys from players who were named to one of the post-season all-american teams. So far, I have purchased a few. I know the whereabouts of a few more (know where to get them if I can save up the money). But, overall, it is pretty hard to find game worn college jerseys or specific players, and I am alright with that. Part of the thrill for me is the hunt. I like the fact that, for the most part, my collection will be hard to put together. I am trying to put together something special that can't just be bought by someone with deep pockets. Most of all, I want to have fun and build something I can take pride in. Future value doesn't come into the equation for me.

[toddhead]

I've often thought about that question(s) and in my opinion, I see the memorabilia market, especially jerseys, going the way of baseball cards. The vintage items, e.g., jerseys, bats, will hold, or increase over time in value because of the nature/type of the collectors of those items. The newer, more recent material, on the other hand, will drop/fall in value because of the sheer abundance of those products. Collectors of the latter items/products will 'come and go' just like the card collectors, Just my opinions.

+1

However, I do believe one exception may be for items of significance (HR bat or ball, throwback jerseys, etc...).

[xpress34]

Like anything, the TRUE value of anything you collect or own is what someone is WILLING to pay for it.

That said, I agree that the older vintage items will increase in value and as teams saturate the market with newer items, the perceived values cannot hold.

To that end, when it comes to 'newer' items, I collect more 'unique' pieces that are and will remain rarer and sometimes 'one of a kind' items - stuff like ASG BP jerseys, WBC items and for the regular season, Batting Helmets.

With the new batting helmets costing $500 (or more) each, teams will not be turning over helmets like they have in the past. therefore, they will quickly become one of the rarest GU items in years to come. I have been fortunate to grab two of the four the Rockies have had come available so far this year (in season's past, they have had 20+ helmets before the All Star break).

Also, unlike seasons past where they have used a helmet for Spring Training and a new helmet for the Season, these helmets are issued at Spring Training and used right into the season due to the cost factors.

I have bought helmets from the Rockies before at around $50 - $150 (depending on the player). MLB is pressuring them to raise their prices and the helmets will be starting at $300 now (again due to the high cost).

I predict that shortly, MLB Batting Helmets will start becoming like NFL Helmets, Players will use 1 or 2 a season and that's it. I obtained Nolan Arenado's 1st MLB helmet because he broke it (cracked the crown) when he threw it down in the bottom of the 9th inning on May 31st.

Here's a link to the new helmet:
S100PCSO (http://www.shoprawlings.com/baseball/baseball-helmets/s100pcso.html)

And info about it's development and construction:
Rawlings S100 Pro Comp (http://www.rawlings.com/s100-pro-comp.aspx)

I will make a post later showing the differences in the helmets for those who would care to see.

- Smitty

[GameUsedGR61]

Maybe I am out of the norm, but I collect jerseys because I like the player or the team (fandom)

I am really not buying them for investment or anything like that. With me, its more of a conversation piece with friends than anything. Sadly when I do have to sell them, it is usually out of necessity or an emergency

I really hope that this hobby promotes itself better to attract new collectors. When I stumbled upon it two years ago, I never knew it existed

[jbean023]

Dave- to comment on your current state on the entire hobby I have a few opinions. Anyone that thinks the market is declining right now is insane.

Auction houses are setting record sales all across the board on everything right now. I think 5 tool said Puig's first HR bat sold for 10K plus, when was the last time you seen that? Look at mlb auctions, nfl auctions, meigray, goldin, etc. Someone just bid 3,500 for a painted 300lb Chicago Cubs apple. During the basketball playoffs Meigray was auctioning off jerseys worn for only ONE game and folks couldn't get one they were going for so much money. Collectors on here complain about Trout, Harper, Puig game used prices so obviously the market is strong somewhere.

Now on holding I don't know why this happens but rarely will you get what you paid for an item off mlb or nfl auctions. As a collector you need to understand if you buy something on mlb/nfl auctions will you rarely see that money again. The TBTC, BCA, Mother's Day, 9/11,camo, ect all sell for a premium because they are the popular item that moment. Just watching some of these auctions confuse me, watching a Nick Markakis sell for 1K plus, you can get HOF player jerseys for cheaper so obviously the modern market is there. With the technology of authentication and video you can photomatch HR bats, unwashed jerseys, bases, helmets. I myself don't buy vintage because there is to many fakes, I would die for a Ryne Sandberg jersey but everytime I see one there is so many differences and the chance of getting burned for that much makes me cringe. Unless a vintage player was marking bats, you wont see an Ernie Banks homerun bat. I see the same items on ebay sell for thousands more at auction houses. I think the days of collectors being able to have "connections" is slowly coming to an end. You will have the here and there stories but mlb, nfl, nba, agents, ect are taking everything they can from the players. People were buying shower shoes from the Tigers last season and I remember a fellow collector talking about the Tigers authenticating urinal cakes lol.

When you buy a Willie Mays bat you could be buying a bat that he hit a homerun with or you could be paying 10s of thousands of dollars for a bat that he gave to the neighbor kid that he threw batting practice to.

Just a small sample of my opinion on how the market is, you could have this conversation for months.

[helf35]

For me everything has come in stages. As a kid like most of us it started with cards. I came into the game around the time of the elite griffey upperdeck card. I was 8 and now I'm 31 and the card decreased in value. Cards stopped being fun for me when it became a pain to hunt down an insert in a Beckett because there are so many and the fact its $5 a pack. Then when I discovered soxfest in Chicago it became autographed photos and balls. Im proud to say i have been 16 years straight and god willing i will continue the streak for many more years to come. now the only signed balls i get are personalized to my son. he has about a dozen and he hasnt hit 2 yet. Like most of you I got sick and tired of my pujols gold homerun derby balls fading and my mark teahen ball staying prestine so I have moved on to strictly bats although I have a few jerseys and batting gloves. Out of 367 autographed baseballs I have had about a dozen fade and all were my expensive balls. 4 of which were pujols and one was my personal favorite brade lidge World Series ball under the logo with podsednik on the sweet spot inscribed game 2 walkoff hr. personally I don't think it will ever recover. I feel it will be just like cards, whatever the value is expect half.