Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

[Chris78]

Here is an article about the early ballots for the Baseball HOF for this year:
http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/mlb-the-biggest-surprises-from-early-hall-of-fame-voting.html/?a=viewall

As you can see in the article, most guys are seeing a boost in their percentage. Griffey is at 100% for the 100 ballots mentioned and it looks very good for Mike Piazza to make it this year. Even Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines would make it on these early ballots. You can also see how certain writers have been voting.

[volunteer]

I never viewed Tim Raines as HOF. If they are going by runs scored then Dwight Evans has nearly has many runs plus a lot more RBI.

[ndevlin]

I never viewed Tim Raines as HOF. If they are going by runs scored then Dwight Evans has nearly has many runs plus a lot more RBI.

Though Raines is a borderline for me, he is the 2nd greatest leadoff hitter behind Henderson.

[Chris78]

Based on the 128 ballots that have been released, here are the percentage results thus far:


Ken Griffey Jr. 100%
Mike Piazza 89.8%
Jeff Bagwell 83.6%
Tim Raines 80.5%
Trevor Hoffman 63.3%
Curt Schilling 61.7%
Mike Mussina 56.3%
Barry Bonds 51.6%
Roger Clemens 50.8%
Edgar Martinez 49.2%
Alan Trammell 47.7%
Lee Smith 29.7%
Fred McGriff 18.8%
Mark McGwire 14.8%
Jeff Kent 14.8%
Larry Walker 11.7%
Billy Wagner 9.4%
Gary Sheffield 8.6%
Sammy Sosa 7.8%
Jim Edmonds 2.3%
Nomar Garciaparra 0.8%
Garret Anderson 0.8%

The following have received 0 votes so far that appear on the 2016 ballot: Brad Ausmus, Luis Castillo, David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Mark Grudzielanek, Mike Hampton, Jason Kendall, Mike Lowell, Mike Sweeney, and Randy Winn.

[Chris78]

Here some points I am seeing with this year's ballot:

1) My personal prediction is that both Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza will make it this year.

2) I believe both Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines may make it this year as well, with Bagwell having the better chance. If they do not make it this year, they are in the driver's seat for next year.

3) Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina are setting themselves up for a future induction.

4) Trevor Hoffman will not make it this year, but has a great chance next year.

5) Alan Trammell is having a nice send-off for the Veteran's Committee.

6) Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are gaining support for a future induction.

7) Edgar Martinez is gaining, but will it be enough.

8) Lee Smith will be a Veteran's Committee send-off next year.

9) For his last appearance on the ballot, Mark McGwire has poor support.

[ndevlin]

That's a pretty good assessment. I would say that Raines will come up just short this year, but you never know.

[gorilla777]

Here is the Excel sheet I've been tracking with public votes, updated frequently:
(they should make them all public, IMO)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

Ben

[CampWest]

Here is the Excel sheet I've been tracking with public votes, updated frequently:
(they should make them all public, IMO)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

Ben

Agreed!

Thanks for sharing.

Here's to hoping that Bagwell stays up there. I think it is going to be close, but my gut is that he's going to come up a couple percent short - 70-72% range. If so, then hopefully he can pick up a few more percent in 2016 and get in.

[Chris78]

It is looking to be very close for both Bagwell and Raines. Last year on the "% on Public Ballots" for Bagwell was 60.73% and for Raines was 60.42%, so they are trending about 20% higher. If the 20% holds true, that would put them at the 75% area since Bagwell had 55.7% and Raines had 55% last year on the final official ballot. I know both candidates did not fare as well on the private ballots, but the first-time candidates were much stronger last year than this year as well. I am also feeling very confident that Mike Piazza will make it this year and probably will be in the 80-85% range.

[Chris78]

Based on the 171 ballots that have been released, here are the percentage results thus far:


Ken Griffey Jr. 100%
Mike Piazza 86.0%
Jeff Bagwell 79.5%
Tim Raines 77.8%
Trevor Hoffman 62.6%
Curt Schilling 57.9%
Mike Mussina 52.0%
Barry Bonds 49.7%
Roger Clemens 49.1%
Edgar Martinez 46.2%
Alan Trammell 46.8%
Lee Smith 29.8%
Fred McGriff 18.7%
Jeff Kent 17.5%
Mark McGwire 14.0%
Larry Walker 14.0%
Gary Sheffield 10.5%
Billy Wagner 9.4%
Sammy Sosa 8.8%
Jim Edmonds 2.3%
Nomar Garciaparra 0.6%
Garret Anderson 0.6%

None of the 0 vote candidates from above have received a vote. Final election results will be announced tomorrow.

[gorilla777]

At 194 public ballots, which is 43% of the total - Junior is still 100%, Piazza 86%, then Raines and Bagwell at 76.3% and 76.8%.
They might end up just short, because the non-public ballots are all the light voters, agenda pushing, grudge holding guys, so they don't want to get publicly shamed and flogged.

[Chris78]

Bagwell and Raines need about 75% for the remaining 250 voters and I do not believe it will happen, but we will see. Prior to the votes being released, I felt both needed at least 65% to have a chance in 2017 and I feel that will happen.

It does appear very likely that Piazza will make it and both Trammell and McGwire will fall off the ballot so that creates 3 more spaces that have been on past ballots. Trevor Hoffman will be on the ballot next year and Billy Wagner should receive 5%. I believe Jim Edmonds will not make 5% and Garciaparra will be off as well. I think Sammy Sosa will get 5%, but it will be close.

[CampWest]

Bagwell and Raines need about 75% for the remaining 250 voters and I do not believe it will happen, but we will see. Prior to the votes being released, I felt both needed at least 65% to have a chance in 2017 and I feel that will happen.

It does appear very likely that Piazza will make it and both Trammell and McGwire will fall off the ballot so that creates 3 more spaces that have been on past ballots. Trevor Hoffman will be on the ballot next year and Billy Wagner should receive 5%. I believe Jim Edmonds will not make 5% and Garciaparra will be off as well. I think Sammy Sosa will get 5%, but it will be close.

Yep... I'm preparing to be disappointed in the Bagwell vote again this year...

[KGoldin]

WHY ARE THEY DRAGGING THIS OUT SO LONG!!!
been watching the HOF show on MLB network for 2 hours now and no results
I think its just Jr. and Piazza.
maybe Raines but Bagwell slipped too much
next year could be a crowd because statistically Raines, Bagwell, Hoffman should get in in 2017 due to % this year, and who knows is Pudge or anyone else new will get in.

[Chris78]

Based on the 207 ballots that have been released, here are the percentage results thus far:


Ken Griffey Jr. 100%
Mike Piazza 86.0%
Jeff Bagwell 76.8%
Tim Raines 75.8%
Trevor Hoffman 62.3%
Curt Schilling 60.4%
Mike Mussina 51.7%
Barry Bonds 51.7%
Roger Clemens 51.2%
Edgar Martinez 47.3%
Alan Trammell 44.0%
Lee Smith 28.0%
Fred McGriff 18.8%
Jeff Kent 17.9%
Larry Walker 13.5%
Mark McGwire 12.6%
Gary Sheffield 11.1%
Billy Wagner 9.2%
Sammy Sosa 7.7%
Jim Edmonds 2.9%
Nomar Garciaparra 0.5%
Garret Anderson 0.5%

Last time I will post this with the final results in just about an hour (6:00pm EST). I wanted to have this as a reference for next year's election.

[CampWest]

WHY ARE THEY DRAGGING THIS OUT SO LONG!!!
been watching the HOF show on MLB network for 2 hours now and no results

I don't think they actually plan to release vote results until 6 ET.

[gorilla777]

I don't think they actually plan to release vote results until 6 ET.

Yep, I had 3pm PST marked, but I know in last few years it was announced at 11am West Coast time...

[Chris78]

Ballots Cast: 440 Needed for Election: 330 Votes Percentage 437 Ken Griffey Jr. 99.3% 365 Mike Piazza 83.0% 315 Jeff Bagwell 71.6% 307 Tim Raines 69.8% 296 Trevor Hoffman 67.3% 230 Curt Schilling 52.3% 199 Roger Clemens 45.2% 195 Barry Bonds 44.3% 191 Edgar Martinez 43.4% 189 Mike Mussina 43.0% 180 Alan Trammell 40.9% 150 Lee Smith 34.1% 92 Fred McGriff 20.9% 73 Jeff Kent 16.6% 68 Larry Walker 15.5% 54 Mark McGwire 12.3% 51 Gary Sheffield 11.6% 46 Billy Wagner 10.5% 31 Sammy Sosa 7.0% 11 Jim Edmonds 2.5% 8 Nomar Garciaparra 1.8% 3 Mike Sweeney 0.7% 2 David Eckstein 0.5% 2 Jason Kendall 0.5% 1 Garret Anderson 0.2% 0 Brad Ausmus 0.0% 0 Luis Castillo 0.0% 0 Troy Glaus 0.0% 0 Mark Grudzielanek 0.0% 0 Mike Hampton 0.0% 0 Mike Lowell 0.0% 0 Randy Winn 0.0% *All candidates in italics received less than 5% of the vote on ballots cast and will be removed from future BBWAA consideration

[CampWest]

3 voters forgot to vote for Griffey. Sadly my Bagwell at 70-72% was pretty spot on, but bodes well for next year.

Ballots Cast: 440 Needed for Election: 330


Votes Percentage
437 Ken Griffey Jr. 99.3%
365 Mike Piazza 83.0%
315 Jeff Bagwell 71.6%
307 Tim Raines 69.8%
296 Trevor Hoffman 67.3%
230 Curt Schilling 52.3%
199 Roger Clemens 45.2%
195 Barry Bonds 44.3%
191 Edgar Martinez 43.4%
189 Mike Mussina 43.0%
180 Alan Trammell 40.9%
150 Lee Smith 34.1%
92 Fred McGriff 20.9%
73 Jeff Kent 16.6%
68 Larry Walker 15.5%
54 Mark McGwire 12.3%
51 Gary Sheffield 11.6%
46 Billy Wagner 10.5%
31 Sammy Sosa 7.0%
11 Jim Edmonds 2.5%
8 Nomar Garciaparra 1.8%
3 Mike Sweeney 0.7%
2 David Eckstein 0.5%
2 Jason Kendall 0.5%
1 Garret Anderson 0.2%
0 Brad Ausmus 0.0%
0 Luis Castillo 0.0%
0 Troy Glaus 0.0%
0 Mark Grudzielanek 0.0%
0 Mike Hampton 0.0%
0 Mike Lowell 0.0%
0 Randy Winn 0.0%

[Chris78]

Congratulations to Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza for making the Baseball Hall of Fame. Both candidates were selections on my personal ballot.

To look towards next year, I believe Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Trevor Hoffman have a great chance of being elected. As far as the first time candidates, Ivan Rodriguez is a clear HOFer, but does carry the steroid cloud, so I am not sure what will happen with him. I feel Vladimir Guerrero is the "dark horse" candidate for next year and he reminds me a lot like Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas. He should get pretty strong support, but I never thought of him as a first ballot guy, although I never viewed Frank Thomas as a clear cut guy either. Manny Ramirez reminds me of Sammy Sosa, and Magglio Ordonez and Jorge Posada are the next best candidates and both may struggle to get 5%. After that you have Jason Varitek, Edgar Renteria, etc., so it gets much weaker.

Any early thoughts about next year's class? I know some of you are Bagwell fans.

[helf35]

How does Edmonds come off the ballot after 1 year? 393 HR's and 8 gold gloves should at least get you a few years on the ballot.

[gingi79]

Three voters out of 440 didn't pick Junior. I'm sorry, that kind of hipster peacocking should be grounds for revoking voting privileges.

There is nothing more petty and obnoxious in my opinion than usurping someone else's special moment simply because you can. These writers have been given the chance to celebrate a once in a lifetime talent with the prestige of a unanimous vote and then three idiots dissented.

Why?

Small, broken and narcissistic people will always attempt to gleam greatness from enormously successful people. It's a vapid and vain attempt to diminish someone else's special moment, pretending they themselves are somehow a part of it.

I pity these obviously damaged and empty "writers".

[KGoldin]

Three voters out of 440 didn't pick Junior. I'm sorry, that kind of hipster peacocking should be grounds for revoking voting privileges.

There is nothing more petty and obnoxious in my opinion than usurping someone else's special moment simply because you can. These writers have been given the chance to celebrate a once in a lifetime talent with the prestige of a unanimous vote and then three idiots dissented.

Why?

Small, broken and narcissistic people will always attempt to gleam greatness from enormously successful people. It's a vapid and vain attempt to diminish someone else's special moment, pretending they themselves are somehow a part of it.

I pity these obviously damaged and empty "writers".

Yep!
They will say they simply can't vote for ANYONE in steroid era, and HOf should revoke their right to vote
Next year I believe it's no new names, but bag well Raines and Hoffman.
And Hoffman getting , in his second year is a very strong showing for a relief pitcher not names Rivera

[ndevlin]

Vlad and Pudge should get in next yr. Should...

[Chess2899]

Bagwell will get in in 2017. Raines should also be in because it is his last year on the ballot and last year guys always get a vote boost.

Hoffman may get in but relievers are always tricky. The newcomers will probably have to wait.

[Chris78]

Vlad and Pudge should get in next yr. Should...

Based on my research for Pudge, it appears Jose Canseco is the PED cloud so I would say his chances are much better to get in than what I originally thought. Vlad's case is stronger than I realized as well.

[cjclong]

I agree with Bob Costas that unless the 3 who didn't vote for Griffey did so for strategic reasons, voting for someone down ballot to keep them eligible, and with 10 votes do you really need to do that and not give Griffey one, they ought to be removed from the voting. There is always going to be debate about some of the people who are voted in. But there are some, like Griffey and Maddox last year, who clearly absolutely belong. And if voters can't see that then they aren't qualified to vote on anybody.