David Ortiz Hall of Fame Bound????

[suave1477]

I would like everyones opinion here!!!

I just picked up today a players game sued bat who is just about a sure shot hall of famer which would just about be my first closest to a hall of famers game used bat i have.

And as I mentioned in January Pick ups thread I also picked up a David Ortiz bat.


So here is my question by either his stats or being a fan favorite or just a player you respect in the game or hate.

Do you think Ortiz has possible chances of making it into the hall of fame???

Here is my thoughts:
His numbers point in that direction BUT he is not young and would just about have to keep up the same exact pace for the next 10 years for him to put up hall of fame numbers. Which would make him 42 which would be hard for him to do and he is a heavy guy imagine in 10 years from now, dont think he will have the same power and or agility.

Tell me what your thoughts are or if I missed anything?

[nate]

Being a D.H. in the American League should help his longevity and with Fenway's right field fence, the opportunity is there offensively. He should have a shot at 500 if he can stay healthy. Then it will depend on the vote.

[bscott]

This is a very good question.

Ortiz has performed well under pressure and in the postseason, and current prices for his game used items reflect this. His career statistics, however, reveal that it will be quite a challenge to reach the 500-home-run benchmark seemingly required of power hitters to get into the Hall.

Ortiz has 266 career home runs and 880 RBI right now.
He's a big guy with a history of recent physical problems. Bad knees, for instance.
He's 32 years old going into this season, and he'll turn 33 in November.

If he hits 34 home runs this year, that gives him 300.

Or, another way to look at it: if he can stay really healthy for another five seasons, hitting an average of 35 home runs, that'll give him 441 for his career.

Or, yet another hypothetical: if Ortiz hits an average of 30 home runs for the next 7 years, he ends up with 476 dingers for his career.


So there are questions:
Can a big man like Ortiz stay healthy long enough to put up the numbers?
Will voters overlook the 500 home run benchmark if he fails to reach it?
Will voters give added weight to his postseason home runs?
What will history say about his role in helping the Red Sox win the world series?

I say, if he reaches the magic number of 500, he's IN.
Anything short of that, and he may eventually get in, but he won't be a first ballot guy.


I hate to give too much weight to his career numbers, but when it comes to Hall-of-Fame voters, statistics do seem to rule the game.

I say: watch his performance the next couple of years and keep an eye on his health. At the very worst, he could collapse under his own weight a la Mo Vaughn.

-bscott.

P.S. I'm a Yankee fan, but watching Ortiz has been a pleasure. The man is clutch.

[metsbats]

Ortiz is signed up until 2010 with the Sox. Lets say for arguements sake he plays out 4 years (option year is picked up in 2011) and keeps up his pace from the last 4 years. Here's what his total HR, RBIS, and hits may look like.

277 Current home run total
177 Projected next 4 years
----
445 Home Runs

880 Current RBI total
541 Projected next 4 years
----
1421 RBIS

1219 Current hit total
677 Projected next 4 years
----
1896 Hits

If he hangs around assuming he's still healthy (a major factor) and can be signed, and can play till he's 39, he may be over 500 hrs, 1600 RBIs, and 2200+ hits.

These numbers are better in the home run (382) and RBI (1451) category than another Bosox slugger Jim Rice. Rice has the edge in hits with 2452.

However Ortiz has a better relationship with the media and a fan favorite (not just in Boston), does lots of charity work and is great ambassador of the Game which is a great set of intangibles.

Here's some Ortiz highlights as of end of the 2007 season:

• 4-time All-Star (2004-2007)
• Top 5 MVP vote-receiver five times (5th, 2003; 4th, 2004; 2nd, 2005; 3rd, 2006; 4th, 2007)
• 2005 Hank Aaron Award winner
• 4-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award (2004-2007)
• 5-time winner of the Edgar Martinez Award (2003-2007)
• Led the American League in extra base hits 3 times (2004, 2005, 2007)
• MVP of the American League Championship Series (2004)
• Led the American League in Home Runs (2006)
• Led the American League in Runs Batted In (2005, 2006)
• American League Player of the Month for September 2005 and July 2006.
• Member of the 2004 Boston Red Sox team that won the World Series.
• Red Sox single season home run leader (54; 2006)
• Tied with Babe Ruth for AL single season home run record in road games (32; 2006)
• First player ever to hit two walk-off home runs in the same postseason (against the Angels (ALDS) and Yankees (ALCS), 2004)
• First player in Red Sox history to hit 40 or more home runs in three consecutive seasons (2004-2006)
• Set new record for home runs by a DH in 2005 (47), then again in 2006 (54)
• 5 straight seasons of at least 30 HR and 100 RBI (2003-2007)
• Tied with Billy Hatcher for all-time post-season consecutive on-base streak (10)
• Member of the 2007 Boston Red Sox team that won the World Series.

I think the two time WS championship with the Red Sox (an possibly more before he retires) will certainly help as does the HR records for a DH in 2005,06 too.

Ortiz is was certainly one of the most dominate players in the AL so far though Arod is the most dominate and has the MVPs but Ortiz has two rings and Arod has none.

IMHO given his current accomplishments and if he can reach the goals at mimimum above and a few more, Ortiz would have a great shot at the HOF.

David

[JETEFAN]

Be strictly a one tool player, he would have to have out of this world offensive numbers. I don't think he is hall of fame material.

George

[David]

If you can field like Ozzie Smith, you don't need 500 home runs to get into the Hall of Fame. If you're a power hitting designated hitter you need lots of home runs.

[David]

Placing a bet that someone, anyone, will average 44+ home runs for the next four years isn't a good bet.

[byergo]

He has almost zero chance of making the HOF. I don't think any DH has ever been voted in. He's getting old and in bad physical condition. He needs OTHER WORLDLY offensive numbers to even have a slim chance, and he's hurt by putting up big numbers during the steroid era.

[jboosted92]

Placing a bet that someone, anyone, will average 44+ home runs for the next four years isn't a good bet.

Ortiz is unique. Like Terry Bradshaw in the NFL..his stats werent all that, but 4 rings and clutch performance does it.

Ortiz has been critical in both Red Sox W.S. wins in 04 and 07. He can hit to all fields, and with power. and is clutch

if he retired today, i would say no. If he gets 450+ dingers with his avg. on the 300 mark. id say he gets in

[metsbats]

He has almost zero chance of making the HOF. I don't think any DH has ever been voted in. He's getting old and in bad physical condition. He needs OTHER WORLDLY offensive numbers to even have a slim chance, and he's hurt by putting up big numbers during the steroid era.

That's true. Though Paul Molitor was a DH only the last 8 years of his career he did have 3319 hits which could not be ignored.

Some folks can make a good case for Edgar Martinez who was so respected for this work as a DH that the best DH in the AL gets the Edgar Martinez award each year.

I'm not understanding how putting up big numbers in the steriod era would hurt Ortiz unless one day we find out he tests positive or did steriods while putting up the big numbers. If Ortiz did put up the big numbers without the use of steriods it could only help him.

I think when the Ortiz becomes eligible and if he gets to some of the milestone numbers (ie 500+ hrs 1400-1600 RBIS) combined with the intangibles, the writers will look at him from the total package perspective and he will not be penalized for being a DH.

I think the reason the DH is not looked upon as a true position player is because it's been traditionally a rotating door for vets who cannot play a position any more (ex. Mike Piazza, Reggie Jackson in his later years) or rotating position for injured or platoon players.

Guys like Martinez and Ortiz who embraced the position and made the most of it and produced big time to help their teams win as DH should not be penalized for not playing a position.

David