Will economy affect hobby?

[trsent]

While there will always be the hobby, I think if you peruse the GUU auction and where the numbers are, it is way off from where it could be. Friend emailed me last night about a Catfish Hunter jersey that went for $8K a few years ago and a like example just went for $2500. I think that reflects alot. I've been trying to sell some stuff and contacted a guy who usually buys and he said "times are tuff, maybe at Christmas I'll buy something." He may answer 1 out of 10 emails.

I myself have curtailed expenditures big time. If it is a unique GU item sure I'll pop for it like usual. However, the oddball stuff and autographs I will not indulge in at this time...

RK

I think a lot of items that sold for $8000 that now go for $2500 have to do with the card companies not paying top, top, top dollar for memorabilia as they were years ago.

Maybe, and just speculation here, shill bidding had something to do with it also?

[kingjammy24]

in answer to the thread title, yes. it'll affect both supply and demand. my predictions are that supply will increase, as collectors sell items to meet more important financial obligations, and buying will pull back.

look, there's more to it than simply having a decent income or feeling your job is secure which in itself is a big if. the layoffs are only starting to mount now. even if one has a secure job, raises, bonuses, and promotions may be frozen. they're frozen at my workplace. no raise or bonus this year for 'ol rudy. there goes some discretionary income for one collector. what would i have done had i gotten my usual raise and bonus? probably gone out and bought a certain jays jersey i've had my eye on for awhile. but now that jersey won't be purchased by me, regardless of the fact that i've got a "secure job".

inflation is up, wages are stagnating. inevitably there's going to be less discretionary income going around simply from the fact that paying for the essentials is taking up more of the pie than it used to. retail's already feeling it. home prices are down and credit has frozen up making many unable to refinance and access the free-flowing funds they'd gotten used to for years. assume that those who become unemployment statistics are naturally going to curtail their buying and may be selling some of their collection to pay for more important things. foreclosures are up as personal bankruptcies and credit card defaults. it's foolish to think the game-used community is somehow immune to all of it.

there seems to be the impression among some that game-used collectors as a whole are a well-heeled bunch simply by virtue of them being able to engage in this hobby. that may be true for those buying $90k babe ruth bats but after reading the "what do you do for a living?" thread on here, i'm willing to bet most collectors are average, middle-class, working joes. they've simply had the discretionary income in the past to spend a few thousand a year on their hobby. after all, most all of the middle-class has hobbies of some sort or another and all hobbies cost money. how many average joes golf? golfing costs money and i wouldn't say that simply because someone can afford to golf, then that means they're unlikely to feel the effects of a severe recession.

in the past, americans, as a whole, had a negative savings rate. recent reports indicate that the savings rate is going up as many are becoming fearful of the future and are finally starting to save for the rainy days ahead. these savings are obviously coming from the discretionary income that many chose to freely spend previously.

jeff scott raised an idea that some may be funnelling their investment dollars into the game-used market as opposed to more traditional investments. that may be true but i wonder how much of the game-used market those types of folks really account for.

there's always a time lag with these things. it's not like someone loses their job on a monday and liquidates their collection on a tuesday. i say we'll start seeing the effects starting in 'Q1 2009.

rudy.

[joelsabi]

home prices are down and credit has frozen up making many unable to refinance and access the free-flowing funds they'd gotten used to for years.

Did you hear greenspan recommending the stabilizing of the real estate market. wouldnt that be nice. you gotta think many collected were created from the credit line from this type of equity.

[Chris78]

I just wanted to add to my past response that this was thinking in terms of a long term perspective more than a short term. In the short term, yes you will see prices decline if you are selling, and better prices if you are buying. But in the long run, I do not see the game used hobby going away anytime soon, and when thinking about the economy you need to keep this in mind (long-term) as well.

Chris

[panthrotc]

it all depends on what it is. I think the economy has effected 1 person. The seller. I say this because many people have become sellers that never were because in order to get that money in this diar time, they must part with items they never would if they had not lost their job. I collect McGwire. most people will not sell him now for the fact that his prices have dropped a large sum. But, now since money is even tighter people will not sell his stuff no matter what because they do not want to sell his stuff for rock bottom prices. But what angers me is the fact that people have alot of his stuff who are not as big of a fan like i am or others such as Robby or skyking. They do not sell his stuff now because they are waiting for him to make the hall. The fact is he is never making the hall, so instead of sitting on the merchandise, take the eventuall hit and throw it on the bay. But like others said, if you want something bad enought you will buy it no matter what. My big purchases has dropped though not because of the economy, but the stuff i want popps up maybe 1 time every 2 years if that.

[skyking26]

In a quick review this morning it is VERY APPARENT that the economy is making a huge impact on selling prices of GU stuff anyway. Just as an example, I was torn last night to bid or not on a Kingman Oakland A's jacket. The fact I have one was the deciding point in not bidding on another - even though it was a different color and style. At $165 final on a player-provenance jacket, somebody got one hell of a deal and I could hazard a guess who that would be. I'll second guess that non-bidding participation by me til the cows come home. Fact is, stuff just is not moving, and it is very evident.

Like Panth stated, Mac stuff isn't moving because those that bought purchased when he was on top and paid high so they have to sell high. I still collect his stuff but have narrowed the collection. I'm not doing cleats anymore so I just sold a pair of Mac double signed cleats, heavy use with MAC in huge black marker under each tongue. I sold them and had trouble getting my $500 asking fee, but I was a Mac fan long before stardom, back when he was hitting 9 HRS a year in injury plagued seasons, so no, I did not take a hit, but could have done much better if I'd sold in the late 90's.

[skyking26]

It's been months since this thread was revived...

I can say without I doubt, I see the economy NOT EFFECTING the hobby from dollars spent at all!!!

Just since the holidays, I've seen scrub Tigers DH mid 80's Barbaro Garbey bats fetch $242 and $366 respectively. Nobody outside Detroit knows or cares. I bid on a Dunn jersey today, his jerseys never supercede $400-450. $550 was the price today.

I also see people reluctant to absorb much loss, which tells me they are not desperate to start unloading the closets just yet. So, don't listen to all the nay-sayers out there trumpeting stories of non-prosperity in desperate times because from my vantage point......I'm not seeing it!!

[cohibasmoker]

Do any of you see the current economic situation starting to affect either your decision to make purchases or the price realized from sales?

Absolutely NOT. Obama is on the job and all will be repaired. He will be unveiling his new Trillion dollar spending plan and as he has said, "we are going to spend our way out of this economic mess".

Jim

[sylbry]

For what it's worth, two jerseys I sold this summer on ebay re-appeared on ebay in the past month. The first one sold for half of what I sold it for while the second one sold for two-thirds.

[Chris78]

I have "hope" and "confidence" that the economy will be fixed in 6 months. President Obama promised with spending hundreds of millions of dollars that "change" is going to happen. Circuit City will realize that they can make it, as will KB Toys, and we will see the return of some of my favorite stores when I was a child such as Kiddie City and Clover.