Who's more of a risk to collect?

[KrAzY3]

I hear what you say about Hamilton and Pujols. But why not Ichiro?

I could be way off base in regard to memorabilia collecting since he's very popular in Japan, but in terms of America I don't see him as sustaining popularity. He seems to have peaked at 30 (to be expected) and last year his slugging percentage fell below .400. Even with his late start, I expect him to clear 2,000 hits but I think his average probably ends up around .320 and his totals won't put him in the same conversation as guys like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn.

This is all from the cautious collector viewpoint. If you collect a guy because you like him a lot, great! But if you are wary of losing value, I think you have to look at things like age when deciding what a player will accomplish. There are some players with shortened careers who have kept up their popularity for various reasons (Kirby Puckett, Sandy Koufax, Thurman Munson and Jackie Robinson come to mind) but the list of former superstars who are now overlooked is much longer. Albert Belle and Mo Vaughn are great examples of players that put up great numbers but had shortened careers. How memorable are they? Jose Canseco used to be one of, if not the most popular players and now he's best known for his tell all books. Daryll Strawberry, Fernando Valenzuela, Eric Davis, Doc Gooden, etc... One of the most common problems is not that they don't have excellent numbers, many of those guys do have very good career averages, they just couldn't sustain it for long enough due to various reasons.

So, when you look at a guy it isn't just how great he was for a short period of time, it is how great can he be over a long period of time? To provide a example, if Mark Prior returns this year he's about the age Josh Hamilton is and Ichiro was when he made it to the majors. He already feels pretty washed up doesn't he? Another example is Cal Ripken Jr. Bit by bit what he did in his career really isn't all that spectacular. It's the body of work that helps made him one of the most popular baseball players alive.

I could just be speaking from lack of knowledge though. For all I know Fernando's stuff fetches as much as Greg Maddux but from my knowledge of the card collecting side of things there's not much of a comparison.

[brianborsch]

But regardless of cumulative numbers, Ichiro will be considered one of the greats amongst Gwynn and definitely above Boggs. Hitting over .300 and getting at least 200 hits per season for 8 years straight is something only 1 other player did in the last 108 years! And that player was one of the best hitters considering his batting eye and bat control. What to speak of his 262 hit season! Sure, he may not get to 3,000 hits, but he will break 2,000 and will be a first ballot HOFer for sure. If you factor his japan numbers, he should finish with more hits than Rose as well. Who knows. Maybe he will play for a long time more. He certainly takes care of himself.

[Slugger33]

JUST COLLECT CANSECO!! he is the most entertaining individual from MLB not to mention the STEROID ERA!! He will always be remembered good or bad!! He is in to movies, boxing, MMA, television you name it so his name is very well known throughout the world. check out his new website!!

www.canseco33.webs.com