Quote Originally Posted by JackHE View Post
Should have hung on for another week - will be worth a couple hundred more after next Sunday.
Wow, are you 100% certain of the outcome of next Sunday's game? Thats pretty impressive, I think Vegas is only at about 7-8% on the Colts. And you are certain that this one win will lead to a 50% increase in value.

The hobby markets are a strange, fickle beast and often respond counter-intuitively.

Hobby markets are predicated on two things. Supply and Demand.
1) Demand is often directly related to the amount of hype. Hype is higher before the Super Bowl than after it, except in the cases of breakout players, like say Deion Branch a couple years back. The known superstars, aka Peyton Manning generally do not get superb extra-hype after performing to expectations or even above expectations. In fact, there may be what I like to call a "hype-hangover" even if he performs great. Rational and patient buyers may stay away in the days and weeks after the Super Bowl, based on their perception that Peyton's hype is at its peak and prices will cool in the next couple of months into the offseason, when they can buy at a relative bargain.
2) Supply... Right now, I'm one of only a couple UDA jerseys on the market. While you are predicting the future, can you tell me how many additional jerseys will flood the market in the hours and days after the Super Bowl? And if there is an influx in supply, will that supply have any downward impact on prices realized?

For a little real market experience... I held on until after the SB with a Roethlisberger UDA jersey and they sold for more during the pre-Super Bowl hype, than after the win. So I can't say that your assertion is a certainty and I dont think you can honestly claim it to be a certainty either, in fact it may be a false assumption based on my market research/experience.

Obviously, selling before the Super Bowl holds certain risks, such as the loss of potential for future appreciation. And I won't be surprised if a few sell for more in the hours and days after the Super Bowl.

Of course I was fully cognizant of the risks and rewards when I made my decision to sell and weighed them appropriately to make the decision I felt was right for me. The only thing I don't understand is if this was such a stupidly good deal, why didnt you jump on it for a quick flip and double your money?