Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

[legaleagle92481]

Just as card companies realized they had the ability to print money in the mid-late 1980s and started running the presses virtually non-stop, MLB is now doing the same with GU equipment.

Back in the 1960s, a player might typically have 2 road and 2 home jerseys a year, and H&B records show most HOF hitters ordering around 100 or fewer bats a season, and the lesser guys many fewer. When I got my Mudcat Grant bat signed a couple years ago, Jim told me he only ordered 6 bats a season, and he was a good hitting starting pitcher.

Also, like baseball cards, lots of those cracked bats from the 1960s found their way into the garbage.

So... I think the answer has to be "yes." When a team sees it as profitable to potentially put 50 (or more) different jerseys on Joe Mauer a season, there will have to be some market correction. Meanwhile, the older GU stuff, like vintage cards, will remain solid.

To illustrate the point I'm going to start a new thread, to see what forum members estimate Joe Mauer's annual GU bat and jersey counts are. I'm very curious...

Bats have a superstious factor. If a guy is on a hot streak with a bat he won't stop using it because the team wants him to use another.

[commando]

I was watching one of those video "box breaks" on YouTube, and a guy pulled a one-of-one Richard Nixon signature. He would up selling it on eBay, and it only sold for $600 (which seemed to be surprise to those commenting on the video). Of course the guy said he should have planned the auction better, because it ended on a weekend, etc.... I disagree somewhat, because only serious collectors would be interested in this kind of card in the first place, and it doesn't really matter when an auction ends if serious collectors want to bid. I believe the reality here is that more Nixon one-of-one cards will be printed, even if part of a different set. Serious collectors know this.

Maybe the winning bidder had a maximum bid of $2.000 on the card, but if there was no one else to bid against him, he walks away with the card for $600.

[Mark17]

Bats have a superstious factor. If a guy is on a hot streak with a bat he won't stop using it because the team wants him to use another.

Right, I agree. The Twins aren't going to pull Joe's favorite stick from him just to make a few hundred dollars. They make a great deal more money by letting him hit, and keeping him happy.

Here's a question: If a player has a favorite bat, does he risk cracking it in pre-game batting practice? It seems to me a team could create a lot of gamers simply by asking players to use different bats during practice. They wouldn't have tons of use, or good thick coats of tar, but the player could put his number on the knob and they could be sold as "gamers."

Also, again using Mauer as my example, he has an indoor batting cage that he uses year-round. He likely uses his pro model bats, and they could eventually find their way onto the market as well. They would be his pro bats, and used by him (just not in games.)

When a new piece of wood, with a little tar and some ball marks, and a little number written on the knob, can be sold for hundreds of dollars, and there is nothing illegal about it, my guess is, it's happening. The question is, to what extent?

[TwinLakesPark]

So are we peaking yet or cam the market absorb more?

[flota89]

So much of this depends on the team and the player. While the Twins may sell 50 jerseys from a star player, the Cardinals (the team I collect) doesn't offer hardly anything. I see less than three Yadi gamers offered most years. Around the same for other stars such as Holliday or Wainwright. This leads to some really heavily used jerseys. For these types of players and teams, I see good value. But when St. Louis starts auctioning 10+ Holliday gamers a year, the prices will fall.

[Vikings_Collector]

The cards were just done to death, so much so that even the little pieces of cloth in the cards were called into question. For most NFL players, you are looking at 16 game used jerseys a year. Even if a guy plays 10 years straight, thats 160 total jerseys over the span of a decade. Not exactly impossible to find, but a darn site better than the thousands of "jersey" cards churned out each year.

But I agree, some of the gamers that are bright and shiny today and commanding sick money will be worth a fraction of what they sold for recently. People are dropping 5 figures for the hot rookie QB jerseys, when for the same money, maybe less, they could be getting Marino or Elway (or name just about anybody) gamers that are always going to be valuable. For every Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, there are ten, maybe twenty (heck, maybe a 100)guys like Jeff Blake or Aaron Brooks, where they look like stars for a year or two and then fade into oblivion.

However, if you're referring to football, there are far less than 16 gamers per season. Of course this depends on the player, but I have seen that jerseys are definitely recycled for games, and used more than once.

[solarlottry]

49ers items are still selling for good money. A 1994 Merton Hanks throwback sold for 3000$ and Steve Young sold for over 6000$ in the last big Heritage auction. Prior to that a 1994 Watters sold for almost 4000$ in a recent MEARS auction. I don't consider Watters a scrub but nor do I consider him a HOFer. 4000$ for his jersey is a great price is you are the seller!

Vintage 49er items always command big dollars. Even the backups routinely run 300-500$ per shirt if they ever surface. There are players I would pay big bucks for who most people would consider a scrub but I need that player for the collection.

Even the most recent 49er team did not sell many shirts this season. They only sold a handful on NFL Auctions. I have multiple shirts from the last few seasons that were worn for multiple games.

I think that as long as the NFL is so popular the interest in GU will be there as some leave but others join the hobby.

Always buying 49er game worn items.

Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

[3arod13]

I think what is going to prove to be the difference is that the pieces you can prove (photomacth, etc) as "historic" or "unique" pieces will now become the desired, and the other "common" stuff will continue to drop in value.

+1

[jeffaary]

I think the prices for common players will drop as the generation who buy their stuff lose interest or die and no one cares about those players any more. Especially now that players have multiple jerseys per season instead of 2 like they did in the past. Babe Ruth jerseys will bring $$$ forever, however.

Here's the thing, though. If you collect what you love, who cares? I collect a special niche that probably no one else cares about; Boston pro jerseys of players who went to Ohio State (my family moved from Ohio to Boston when I was 4). There's some very good players in my collection, but no hall of famers. Since I care about those jerseys more than someone who sees it as just a Patriots jersey of a good player I probably overpay for the items I buy, but I don't care. I didn't buy them to make money. 40 years from now my kids may or may not recoup the money I spent on these items, but I enjoy the hell out of them.

[GoTigers]

Jeter was one of, if not the most, marketed stars in the modern era in terms of GU. He also had a long and mostly healthy career. Over 20yrs he had 12,602 PA's. If he broke/switched bats every 20 AB's that means there are 630 legit Jeter Gamers out there. That may be over saturation for a common player.. But to me that is still a very limited supply for a star.

Even if he switched lumber every 15 PA's... That's 840 bats. A drop in the bucket compared to cards. Just imagine if Topps was the only card company and said they were only going to produce 840 cards of Jeter.. Ever. How much would those be worth?