Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

[commando]

It's not only an issue of supply and demand, but also a question of knowledge... In other words, who's going to remember the dozens of different uniform styles that are being worn constantly over the years? Will anyone really try to collect (or care about) this stuff years from now? I believe there will always be people to buy the common player stuff, but like cards, this stuff is probably going to be really cheap to pick up in the future.

Unless its a star player, I'd wait for the value of all the newer stuff to go down.

[soxfan]

Love the question....

I agree as there seems to be soooo much stuff out there now in the Game used market.

I think what is going to prove to be the difference is that the pieces you can prove (photomacth, etc) as "historic" or "unique" pieces will now become the desired, and the othere "common" stuff will continue to drop in value.

I have stopped collecting "common stuff" just to have GU items and have started saving for the high end pieces.

Case in point, I have a Jose Lopez GU bat from Ichiro's 3000th hit game, and wouldnt have kept it until I was able to photomatch/video match it to his 8th HR of 2008...now that is much more appealing to have, as I wouldnt have bought a Lopez regular "gamer", and hopefully Lopez, still being young and full of talent, could have a resurgence with a new team...just like Beltre with the Sox this year.

I love GU gear, dont' get me wrong, but there is just soooooo much out there that I am worried it will eventually go the way of the baseball card...

Jeremy
macleodjeremy@hotmail.com

looking for a Beltre GU bat, the only current Sox I don't have.

[Jags Fan Dan]

The cards were just done to death, so much so that even the little pieces of cloth in the cards were called into question. For most NFL players, you are looking at 16 game used jerseys a year. Even if a guy plays 10 years straight, thats 160 total jerseys over the span of a decade. Not exactly impossible to find, but a darn site better than the thousands of "jersey" cards churned out each year.

But I agree, some of the gamers that are bright and shiny today and commanding sick money will be worth a fraction of what they sold for recently. People are dropping 5 figures for the hot rookie QB jerseys, when for the same money, maybe less, they could be getting Marino or Elway (or name just about anybody) gamers that are always going to be valuable. For every Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, there are ten, maybe twenty (heck, maybe a 100)guys like Jeff Blake or Aaron Brooks, where they look like stars for a year or two and then fade into oblivion.

[gorilla777]

I think that it will be much the same outcome of the card craze of 20+ years ago where it ended up the older, much more scarce (in hindsight) stuff ended up being much, much more valuable than the mass produced new card sets. It is mostly supply and demand, but the vintage bats, etc. are going to hold their value or increase possibly as I do believe the numbers of these players will look better in comparison after the recent PED inflated era. The new stuff seems like a sucker bet to me sometimes.

Ben

[STLHAMMER32]

I think that one of the main reasons the GU cards felt such a horrible blow was because people realized that for about the same price they could go out and buy a full jersey or game bat. The card market took a hit following the strike of 1994 as well. So besides being watered down there are other factors that come into play.

Game used bats are one area i don't believe will change much. There has always been a fascination with players and their bats. Many of the players still exchange them and trade among other players. Also if you have ever seen the look of a player when they get their bat handed to them to sign....you know what I mean. Some are genuinely happy to see their old bat again and others are angry that maybe one slipped out of the clubhouse....whatever the case maybe bats are different and personal to many players. They recognize bats years and years later and could tell you if it was theirs or not.

[commando]

Lots of people say "collect what you like," and that's exactly what I do.

It's funny, I went to high school with Andy Pettitte in Deer Park, Texas. Believe it or not, I just started collecting his cards a few months ago! I'm glad I did recently, instead of 1995 or 1996, because I consistently pay bargain prices for his cards in the year 2010. I'm not saying this a perfect analogy to GU items, but like many of you said, quality older game used items are sometimes a BARGAIN compared to the new, flashy stuff.

[legaleagle92481]

The market for scrubs will always be on the low side because they are scrubs and they appeal to a limited number of collectors which decreases as time goes on and they leave the league. Only a die hard fan is going to base a collection on a common player who retired five years ago. The superstars the market can never be watered down. Someone will always want a Jeter or Kobe jersey. The issue is price though as only a limited number of people have the money and desire to spend 100s or 1000s on a jersey and once those willing have theirs the retail companies will be forced to drop prices to move the rest. If you notice companies like JO are already starting to do this. Which sucks for those who bought at the higher price and now will lose money.

[Mark17]

Just as card companies realized they had the ability to print money in the mid-late 1980s and started running the presses virtually non-stop, MLB is now doing the same with GU equipment.

Back in the 1960s, a player might typically have 2 road and 2 home jerseys a year, and H&B records show most HOF hitters ordering around 100 or fewer bats a season, and the lesser guys many fewer. When I got my Mudcat Grant bat signed a couple years ago, Jim told me he only ordered 6 bats a season, and he was a good hitting starting pitcher.

Also, like baseball cards, lots of those cracked bats from the 1960s found their way into the garbage.

So... I think the answer has to be "yes." When a team sees it as profitable to potentially put 50 (or more) different jerseys on Joe Mauer a season, there will have to be some market correction. Meanwhile, the older GU stuff, like vintage cards, will remain solid.

To illustrate the point I'm going to start a new thread, to see what forum members estimate Joe Mauer's annual GU bat and jersey counts are. I'm very curious...

[coxfan]

An interesting topic, as items differ in how much teams can vary the supply:

1) The supply of game-used bats and gloves should be relatively fixed.

2) However, teams can vary the number of game-used balls for sale, since the ball boys can be told to reduce the number they throw to fans and/or save for BP in order to send more to the shops.

3) There could be a nearly unlimited supply of game-used clothing items like jerseys, since teams can produce and use these as much as they like (and can sell).

4) The number of bases can be increased also, to a reasonable limit (no more than 54 per game on special occasions; probably 9 per game in normal use).

Thus, teams will continue to vary the supply to fit the demand. When sales are too slow or prices too low, they'll dispose of g-u items. But when things are rolling, they can increase the supply at little risk.

[legaleagle92481]

An interesting topic, as items differ in how much teams can vary the supply:

1) The supply of game-used bats and gloves should be relatively fixed.

2) However, teams can vary the number of game-used balls for sale, since the ball boys can be told to reduce the number they throw to fans and/or save for BP in order to send more to the shops.

3) There could be a nearly unlimited supply of game-used clothing items like jerseys, since teams can produce and use these as much as they like (and can sell).

4) The number of bases can be increased also, to a reasonable limit (no more than 54 per game on special occasions; probably 9 per game in normal use).

Thus, teams will continue to vary the supply to fit the demand. When sales are too slow or prices too low, they'll dispose of g-u items. But when things are rolling, they can increase the supply at little risk.

Your second point is actually happening I went to a Mets-Yanks game last Saturday at Citifield and I was sitting in the fourth row right near the ballboy, the entire game he gave away two baseballs. Even kids were trying to get them from him and he was refusing to give them one. Jason Bay caught the last out of a couple of innings and he ran right past us and took the ball to the dugout despite the chants from the crowd to toss it into the crowd. I noticed balls from the game were for sale for $100 plus dollars as a fixed price on MLB auctions so I assume that was why they were being so stingy.