Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

[suave1477]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

Joel I did read STLHammer he didn't mention Hamiltons drug addiction and alcoholism when he started in baseball. Unless I am missing something.

[joelsabi]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

Joel I did read STLHammer he didn't mention Hamiltons drug addiction and alcoholism when he started in baseball. Unless I am missing something.

first sentence. "It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers" , implying way short of the 500 HR milestone which could be applied to him since he has no connection to PED. Its not a big deal to argue about it just that you think everyone missed the big picture when it's obvious.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I think everyone missed the big picture here which Legal did touch the subject for a bit.

Even if Hamilton was to come close to sniffing the steps of the HALL.

He will not make it in.

People forget just because he didn't take PED'S. He was a drug addict and alcoholic. Which will plague any kind of desicion.

Next to that I will go with I believe it was the second or third posters response. Slim to none.

I think you are way off on this one....He did not cheat the game, he cheated himself and its that human element that people can relate to and forgive....He is very popular in every city the Rangers visit and always answers questions openly and honestly with media.

While his drug abuse will ultimately prevent him from reaching huge milestone numbers, his story has become not a sad tale of drug abuse and a waste of a life but rather a story of INSPIRATION. His story has offered HOPE to many and has touched the lives of more people than you could possibly imagine. EVERY single player, umpire, writer, voter and fan can relate to drug abuse because it has impacted family or friends in some way.

[cjclong]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

Suave, I think that unfortunately Hamilton's drug use will likely keep him out of the HOF, but not for the reason you mention. The drugs kept him out of baseball which may very well keep him from reaching the career numbers he needs. Also, there may be long term effects on his health. People are negative on PED's because the look on it as cheating. Everyone knows that cocaine and other drugs are the oppisite of cheating, they harm your perfromance. It like running a race with a weight tied to your ankle. The sad thing is, we will never know how good Hamilton could have been without the damage he did to himself. But the fact that he has frankly acknowleged it and appears to have overcome it is something that I think accounts for part of his popularity. He was voted into the All Star game by the fans last year when he acknowledged his numbers did not deserve it. If he were able to play long enough and put up good enough numbers I think the HOF voters would look at it as triumphing over adversity. Everyone loves the prodigal son story. But this whole question is way ahead of its time. You can't really talk about any players HOF possibllty when he has only played three and a half years and one of them was a poor one.

[suave1477]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

first sentence. "It doesn't look like his career will be long enough to hit the key milestone numbers" , implying way short of the 500 HR milestone which could be applied to him since he has no connection to PED. Its not a big deal to argue about it just that you think everyone missed the big picture when it's obvious.

Ok well in that case your assuming thats what he was implying. I was just bringing it to light. I am not arguing about it I was merely just saying I think people forget about that part since it was some time ago.

[suave1477]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I think you are way off on this one....He did not cheat the game, he cheated himself and its that human element that people can relate to and forgive....He is very popular in every city the Rangers visit and always answers questions openly and honestly with media.

While his drug abuse will ultimately prevent him from reaching huge milestone numbers, his story has become not a sad tale of drug abuse and a waste of a life but rather a story of INSPIRATION. His story has offered HOPE to many and has touched the lives of more people than you could possibly imagine. EVERY single player, umpire, writer, voter and fan can relate to drug abuse because it has impacted family or friends in some way.

I never said he cheated the game I agree he cheated himself. And I do agree it is an inspirational story of what he has over come I am just saying that if you want to look at is as a positive story of overcoming something you did to yourself or not in the end it will still be looked upon by the writers as "taking drugs" which I do not believe they feel would be a good thing to promote into the Hall whether he over came them or not.
That's just my opinion!!

[joelsabi]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

Ok well in that case your assuming thats what he was implying. I was just bringing it to light. I am not arguing about it I was merely just saying I think people forget about that part since it was some time ago.

jason,

i agree.

i think most people thought he was another wasted draft pick and now he is giving himself a second chance and he has been gracious in his accomplishments. even josh hamilton admits that his past problems are not behind him, that he must fight temptation on a daily basis. i think most people can relate to his struggles and are rooting for him.

to put it in perspective, hamilton and pujols are the same age. one is closing in on 100 and the other closing in on 400.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I never said he cheated the game I agree he cheated himself. And I do agree it is an inspirational story of what he has over come I am just saying that if you want to look at is as a positive story of overcoming something you did to yourself or not in the end it will still be looked upon by the writers as "taking drugs" which I do not believe they feel would be a good thing to promote into the Hall whether he over came them or not.
That's just my opinion!!

It's not the drug use you are promoting into the Hall, its the player. Personal issues and the game I believe are two distinct things. The hall should be and is about the players ability and their contribution to the game. If you are going to get into personal issues than start removing inductees now because the Hall has plenty of Non-Saints. My point is Josh's story has been a positive one so far with many people including those in the game today talking to him about their own problems or a friend's problems. He is making a positive impact that he wouldn't have been able to make without his own personal issues in the past.

To say he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues makes no sense to me.

I don't think anyone has overlooked his past, I think thats what makes it so incredible that he is doing what he is. His story has been what has made him popular to the extent he is....I'm not sure what your statement about everyone not seeing the big picture is all about?

[suave1477]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

It's not the drug use you are promoting into the Hall, its the player. Personal issues and the game I believe are two distinct things. The hall should be and is about the players ability and their contribution to the game. If you are going to get into personal issues than start removing inductees now because the Hall has plenty of Non-Saints. My point is Josh's story has been a positive one so far with many people including those in the game today talking to him about their own problems or a friend's problems. He is making a positive impact that he wouldn't have been able to make without his own personal issues in the past.

To say he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues makes no sense to me.

I don't think anyone has overlooked his past, I think thats what makes it so incredible that he is doing what he is. His story has been what has made him popular to the extent he is....I'm not sure what your statement about everyone not seeing the big picture is all about?

As far as we should look at players promoting the game. Well no one stands out more than McGwire Bonds Sosa because that's what they did. Although they did it cheating, they still promoted the game when it was at an all time low.

I never said he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues. I said in general that Even if he did come close to sniff the Hall that he wouldnt make it in. I was referring more to his stats , longevity and where he is now with his stats. He would have to have back to back to back super star years for along time to come close.
Example as the other member mentioned Pujols at the same age is closing in on 400hr's while Hamilton is closing in on a 100. Huge difference.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

As far as we should look at players promoting the game. Well no one stands out more than McGwire Bonds Sosa because that's what they did. Although they did it cheating, they still promoted the game when it was at an all time low.

I never said he won't sniff the hall because of his own personal issues. I said in general that Even if he did come close to sniff the Hall that he wouldnt make it in. I was referring more to his stats , longevity and where he is now with his stats. He would have to have back to back to back super star years for along time to come close.
Example as the other member mentioned Pujols at the same age is closing in on 400hr's while Hamilton is closing in on a 100. Huge difference.

Those players you mentioned did promote the game, although Bonds was pretty much a villain while Sosa and Mac were being rooted for during their chase of history. The huge, obvious problem is that they did it while cheating. If players cheat and enhance artificially their abilities or violate rules like betting than it definitely affects outcomes, statistics and records....much tougher to debate their hall worthiness...

From the way you worded things it came across that even if he put up the numbers and was close to being a hall of famer, his past would make the voters deny him...if I misread that I apologize.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.

[joelsabi]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.

25-29 are considered peak years according to Bill James. Players on PED's had their peaks outside this range.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

I think this is a debate about nothing. To get to 400 homers by age 40 he would have to average over 30 homers a year until age 40. Josh's current career high is 32 and this year he is only on pace for 35. The years 28-32 are statistically the best years of a player's career after which a decline begins. So in the heart of his prime he is barely keeping that pace up. The argument that he started late does not hold any water. Ryan Howard made the majors at only one year younger and at age 30 he has almost 250 homers and over 750 rbis. Which are more than 2.5 times Josh's totals in each category. And he has several homer and RBI titles, a ring, an mvp, an nlcs mvp and a roy. Historically he reminds me of Daryl Strawberry, an outfielder drafted number one overall out of highschool with out of this world talent whose personal demons prevented him from being the player he should have been. Daryl won a ring, played in 8 all star games, won a homer title and finished with 335 homers and got not even 2% of the hall vote in his only year on the ballot.

The debate is what is his chances.....you have it at 0 and so does Suave it looks like. I am saying there is at least a very small 1-2% chance he has a stretch that allows him a chance to be considered. I'm not looking at 400 as the key number, yes it's a nice number but a player could dominate and win back-to-back triple crowns, win mvps, numberous gold gloves and have 300 hrs while batting .330 lifetime in a non-steroid era and that would be enough for me.

You keep comparing him to guys, this age or that age too me that doesn't matter. Josh spent 4 years completely out of baseballl, nothing...and was a crack addict who came close to killing himself on several occasions..how can you compare the two is beyond me..yes that is a late start I would say.

Last thing I will say about this is, if you think there is a 0% Chance Josh Hamilton could put together a string of years that could possibly get him recognized as a Hall of Famer ......then I bet you also thought there was a 0% chance a crack addict that hadn't swung a bat in several years could play 15 games of minor league ball, never playing a game above AA in his life..become the MVP of the American League 4 years into his baseball comeback. Its a very slim chance that Hamilton can put together a stretch good enough to make him hall worthy, but after seeing what he has done I will not say it's impossible.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

The debate is what is his chances.....you have it at 0 and so does Suave it looks like. I am saying there is at least a very small 1-2% chance he has a stretch that allows him a chance to be considered. I'm not looking at 400 as the key number, yes it's a nice number but a player could dominate and win back-to-back triple crowns, win mvps, numberous gold gloves and have 300 hrs while batting .330 lifetime in a non-steroid era and that would be enough for me.

You keep comparing him to guys, this age or that age too me that doesn't matter. Josh spent 4 years completely out of baseballl, nothing...and was a crack addict who came close to killing himself on several occasions..how can you compare the two is beyond me..yes that is a late start I would say.

Last thing I will say about this is, if you think there is a 0% Chance Josh Hamilton could put together a string of years that could possibly get him recognized as a Hall of Famer ......then I bet you also thought there was a 0% chance a crack addict that hadn't swung a bat in several years could play 15 games of minor league ball, never playing a game above AA in his life..become the MVP of the American League 4 years into his baseball comeback. Its a very slim chance that Hamilton can put together a stretch good enough to make him hall worthy, but after seeing what he has done I will not say it's impossible.

Wow that is quite the scenario. His current career BA is .310, so far he has zero mvps, triple crowns or gold gloves. And 300 homers is 213 homers away which is about a solid seven years away based on his current pace. What you say could be said about almost any player. Warren Spahn won 363 games after his 28th birthday for example. Jose Bautista could slug 40 homers a year for the next decade and make the hall on the first ballot. I would never say someone has a zero percent chance until he hangs it up I just think too many things have to break a certain way for it to happen. Alot of players have had some amazing years and never sniffed the Hall. Roger Maris, Denny Mcclain, Dale Murphy, Don mattingly, dwight gooden are a few that come to mind. Now years later does any of those players look like a HOFER? To me the discussion should not be seriously had until someone has had seven or eight HOF caliber seasons until then it is just pure speculation.

[cjclong]

Re: Josh Hamilton HOF chances?

You are right it is pure speculation, but I think that was what the writer of this thread was inviting us to do.