NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

[lakeerie92]

I forgot about the 'backdoor' rule, but he will still have to maintain where he is now for the rest of the season and taking an 0 for XX added to the average could drop it like a rock.

Based on his current pace, he has approximately 1.12 hits per game played (115 hits / 102 games played). That projects to 35.5 more hits so lets call it 151 hits. (I missed the Oct games earlier, so there are 32 games left, not 29)

If he comes up even 20 PAs shy, his average drops like a rock. If he gets 482 PAs with a projected 151 hits, his BA drops to .313. At 502 PAs it drops to .300.

I'm not saying he can't do it, but the numbers don't project well unless he gets a lot of PAs with BB, IBB, HBP, etc. that don't affect his Avg.

If he stays on his current pace of avg 4.9 PAs a game, he will get to 502 on his own, but even then if he stays on his avg of 1.12 hits per game, as stated above, he drops .041 points to .300.

Like Cargo, Infante will have to hit a hot streak to keep his hopes alive. Staying on the pace he is on, his avg will steadily drop.

- Chris

The math doesn't add up. You are saying 1.12 hits per game, but you are not factoring in that he spent the early part of the season coming in in pinch hit roles. That would be one at bat. You can't average games played with hits to tabulate that. That is why based on the math alone of him continuing at 1.12 hits a game his average still dropped 30 points on the math. Did this make sense?

He does have to maintain a good bit to stay there and I will be surprised if he wins it, but as a Braves fan it would be nice for him to win the batting title and get some vindication for all the nay sayers who complained about his all star selection.

[xpress34]

The math doesn't add up. You are saying 1.12 hits per game, but you are not factoring in that he spent the early part of the season coming in in pinch hit roles. That would be one at bat. You can't average games played with hits to tabulate that. That is why based on the math alone of him continuing at 1.12 hits a game his average still dropped 30 points on the math. Did this make sense?

He does have to maintain a good bit to stay there and I will be surprised if he wins it, but as a Braves fan it would be nice for him to win the batting title and get some vindication for all the nay sayers who complained about his all star selection.

I agree with where you're coming from, but the exact thing you are saying is also why you can really only use the Avg formula to get an idea of where he might end up. If he doesn't play every day, every game for the entire game (i.e. he pinch hits, pinch runs, etc) his avg hits per game will balance out. Unfortunately, there is no stat for Innings played by a player - just games -and unlike pitchers I can't find a games started stat either to get a better picture.

I wish them all the best and hope to see a very good race to the end...

- Chris

[lakeerie92]

That is a valid point too.

[legaleagle92481]

So 5 games is nothing but the 4.5 for the Rockies for the Wild card is insurmountable??? Therefore keeping Cargo out of the playoffs???

Counselor -you should know that you can't make an a argument for one side of the court without giving equal time to the other which is exactly what you are stating.

The Rockies have a history of getting hot in September and the Giants and Phillies aren't untouchable either.

I didn't mention them because they have to jump three teams and imo the Phils don't choke. The Phils have gotten this far with most of their key guys being on the DL for one streach or another but now they are all back. They have won the NL two years in a row, have a loaded team of stars with pressure experience, so I just cannot see them coughing it up. Which is why I didn't mention the WC for the Reds or Cards earlier as well. The Rocks may very well get hot but it won't be enough.

[xpress34]

I didn't mention them because they have to jump three teams and imo the Phils don't choke. The Phils have gotten this far with most of their key guys being on the DL for one streach or another but now they are all back. They have won the NL two years in a row, have a loaded team of stars with pressure experience, so I just cannot see them coughing it up. Which is why I didn't mention the WC for the Reds or Cards earlier as well. The Rocks may very well get hot but it won't be enough.

The Rockies too have had major parts out on the DL all season long including 3/5s of their Starting Rotation (Tulo, Cargo, Fowler, Helton, Francis, Cook, Dela Rosa)- it's not like the Phils are the only team to deal with that - plus losing their Team President Keli McGregor the 1st week of the season.

I guess we'll just have to see how it all plays out... Phils did choke again tonight with their ACE (Halladay) on the hill in LA. They got 1 hit.

I'm just saying...

[xpress34]

5 games is nothing with a month and change left to play. They have 3 head to head games left. The Cards have much, much more experience and the better overall team and superior coaching. The Mets blew a 7.5 game lead with 17 games to play once so five with over a month is not a huge deal. The Reds will fold in September/October of that I am confidant.

I forgot to mention (using your argument as a spring board) that in 2007, the Rockies were 10 games out when September started and they won 21 of 22 to force a Tie Breaker on their way to sweeping through the PHILS and the D-Backs on their way to the WS. So a 3.5 game deficit isn't a huge deal.

[xpress34]

They have won the NL two years in a row, have a loaded team of stars with pressure experience, so I just cannot see them coughing it up. Which is why I didn't mention the WC for the Reds or Cards earlier as well. The Rocks may very well get hot but it won't be enough.

I didn't know the Phils were the only team with stars who have pressure experience. Thanks for educating me...

They can cough it up just like the Rox did last year. Colorado had Phillies number in the Division Series but Huston Street gave up the winning run in Game 3 and gave up 3 runs to lose Game 4.

I love reading revisionist history that makes it sound like the Phils rolled the Rockies last year (not saying that you said that).

Again, I guess we'll see how it plays out.

- Chris

[legaleagle92481]

Check the remaining scheds. except for two series with Atlanta the Phils have more cupcakes then a bakery. The Rox except for two series vs. Arizona play the Reds, Pods, Cards, Dodgers and Giants, all over .500 and most in the playoff chase in some cases for multiple series. They have zero head to head games. By pressure experience I meant the Phils have played more postseason games over the last three years than ANY other team. Oswalt is new but he has been to the Series with Houston and the NLCS. Halladay is no experience but he is one of top three pitchers in the game. Rest of the team has pretty much been there each year.

[BostonSportsFan]

While I am not going to say that the Cardinals cannot come back from what is now a 6 game defecit, they have hardly been playing inspired baseball. In fact since they swept the Reds what 3 weeks ago, they have absolutely played horrible baseball against many celler dwellers in the NL.

People have been saying all year that the Reds are going to falter, when is this going to happen. They have one month left and have given us 5 months worth of quality baseball. In fact, the Reds and Cards are going in opposite directions. While I would agree, on paper, the Cardinals have the better team, I am beginning to wonder if they are just going to completely underachieve this year and the Reds end up pulling it out.

[LastingsMilledge85]

Wow, no one wants to give anyone or even the team (Padres) any credit?