NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

[Manram]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Update:

Carlos Gonzalez: 32 HR (T3rd NL), .341 AVG (1st NL), 100 RBI (1st NL)

Joey Votto: 32 HR (T3rd NL), .321 AVG (2nd NL), 98 RBI (2nd NL)

Albert Pujols: 35 HR (1st NL), .310 AVG (5th NL), 97 RBI (3rd NL)

Cargo will win mvp if he keeps tearing it up and possibly the triple crown??? This kid is a lot of fun to watch

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Doesn't that mean he is gaining ground not losing ground? Last week he needed 4.9 plate appearances per game, now he only needs 4.3. He has been leading off every game and averaging nearly 5 a game. I no longer think his plate appearances are going to be the issue as much as Cargo's torrid pace.

Russell -

Maybe I should have worded that better. Last week, he was averaging 4.9 PAs a game. Now he is only averaging 4.3 PAs a game - meaning his number of PAs is going down.

I wasn't talking about what he needs to average - I was talking about how many PAs he was and is actually getting.

- Chris

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

That isn't the case though, he has 402 so he is 100 short with 23 games left. That is 4.3 needed per game. If he needed 4.9 per game last week that would mean he is exceeding the pace and should exceed 502 plate appearances. Now that the Braves are falling like a rock in the standings this is all I have to look forward to.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

That isn't the case though, he has 402 so he is 100 short with 23 games left. That is 4.3 needed per game. If he needed 4.9 per game last week that would mean he is exceeding the pace and should exceed 502 plate appearances. Now that the Braves are falling like a rock in the standings this is all I have to look forward to.

Russell -

That IS (or was before tonight) the case. He had 398 PAs (per MLB's TPA number) before tonight and his PAs per game are 4.3 PAs per game. NOT what he needed, that is how many PAs he IS getting per game.

Last week he was averaging 4.9 PAs per game. Again, NOT what he needed, that is how many PAs he WAS getting per game.

That is a NET LOSS or .6 PAs per game. That means he is slowing down in how many PAs he is making.

If he continues to LOSE .6 PAs per game (x the 23 games that are NOW remaining - my earlier post was BEFORE tonights game was played), that means he will LOSE 13.8 Total Plate Appearances.

If he stays at 4.3 PAs a game, with 23 games remaining, he will gain 98.9 PA's + the 402 you say he has is 500.9. an 0 for 1 shouldn't hurt, but , as I said earlier he has LOST .6 PAs per game avg. If he loses .3 more and drops to 4 PAs he will be 8 PAs short of 502. If he drops .6 again to 3.7, he will be around 15 PAs short and an 0 for 15 tacked on would sink him.

Does that make sense now?

I am NOT talking about how many PAs he NEEDS to avg, I am talking about how many PAs he IS averaging.

All the best -

Chris

P.S. - If Cargo stays on the tear he is on, it will all be a moot point anyway.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I understand what you are saying, but what I am trying to say is that over the last 10 games he has averaged 4.7 PA a game. over the last 7 games 4.71 PA. I don't know where your 4.3 average is coming into play. 4.7 is what he is averaging right now. 4.3 a game is all he needs to get to 502. Currently at 402 he needs 100 more 4.34 x 23= 99.82 so even if you say 4.4 he is still going to hit 502 with roughly 2 games to spare.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I understand what you are saying, but what I am trying to say is that over the last 10 games he has averaged 4.7 PA a game. over the last 7 games 4.71 PA. I don't know where your 4.3 average is coming into play. 4.7 is what he is averaging right now. 4.3 a game is all he needs to get to 502. Currently at 402 he needs 100 more 4.34 x 23= 99.82 so even if you say 4.4 he is still going to hit 502 with roughly 2 games to spare.

Each time I have figured his AVG # of PAs, I have used the same formula -

# Games / # TPA = #PA per game

That number overall is steadily DECREASING as the season goes on. You're using a short term - last 7 or last 10 games calculation. If I use that, Cargo smokes everyone with a .500+ BA, etc.

When I 1st discussed Infante with you, his SEASON avg was 4.9 PAs per game. The other day, his SEASON PA's per game had dropped to 4.3 PAs per game. As of this morning, he has played in 111 Games and has 402 PAs. That averages out to only 3.62 PAs per game.

His AVG # of PAs per game is FALLING as the season goes on. Just like his BA is a SEASON stat, I figure his AVG PAs for the SEASON, not the past 7 or 10 games.

All the best -

Chris

P.S. - As I said before, if Cargo stays on the pace he's on, it will all be a moot point as he has already passed Infante for BA anyway.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

You can't just take plate appearances for an off the bench utility infielder that has become a full time starter and use that as a season calculation because it will always be inaccurate. Like discussed before games counted earlier in the season he might have only got one pinch hit at bat. Those games distort the information as to average number of plate appearances now that he is an everyday player. Calculating his numbers as an everyday player the only choice you have is to use a more recent sampling of his time as a starter. Besides with all of those appearances that were one or two at bats a game earlier in the season it is mathmatically impossible that his numbers went from 4.9 a game to 4.3 a game in when his plate appearances over that week were 4.7 a game.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Russ -

We'll just see how the season ends up. As I have said in my P.S. the past two posts, if Cargo doesn't let up, it won't matter anyway.

He already passed Infante for the BA lead. He passed Votto for the RBI lead. A few more bombs while Pujols is slumping and it could get VERY interesting...

- Chris

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I agree, if he keeps up this pace he might hit .400 and get 200 RBIs

[AWA85]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Not to take anything away from Cargo, but man those home splits are still there. The Coors effect lives on.

Consider: 25 of Gonzalez’s 32 home runs have come at Coors. His on-base plus slugging at Coors is 1.241. On the road, it’s .760.

Pujols and Votto have been much better away from home. Votto has hit 16 homers at home and 16 on the road. His OPS is .972 at home and 1.052 on the road.



Pujols has hit 17 homers at home and 18 on the road. His OPS is 1.058 at Busch and .914 on the road.



Should be an interesting MVP vote.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Not to take anything away from Cargo, but man those home splits are still there. The Coors effect lives on.

Consider: 25 of Gonzalez’s 32 home runs have come at Coors. His on-base plus slugging at Coors is 1.241. On the road, it’s .760.

Pujols and Votto have been much better away from home. Votto has hit 16 homers at home and 16 on the road. His OPS is .972 at home and 1.052 on the road.



Pujols has hit 17 homers at home and 18 on the road. His OPS is 1.058 at Busch and .914 on the road.



Should be an interesting MVP vote.

Not to sound nasty, but I am so tired of the 'Coors Field' effect, the 'Rarified Air', the 'Altitude Adjustment'... I know those are there for him this year... they were here for Holliday too who went on to prove he could do it elsewhere as well as Walker (who was the ONLY Cardinal who had a good 2004 WS).

It is a slam and a 'take away' on Cargo just like it has been on every player that has ever done anything noteworthy at Coors Field:

Bichette - THE Clutch Hitter of the 90's (the numbers don't lie) - should have been 1995 MVP

Walker was slammed for years until 1997 when he crushed everyone else

Holliday - should have been 2007 MVP for carrying the Rockies that last month - instead it went East Coast to J-Roll and the writer's reasoning? J-Rolls defense. But then those hypocrites turned around and gave him the Gold Glove over Tulo because of J-Rolls OFFENSE??? Really a Defensive Award for your offense? Tulo SMOKED Rollins defensively in 2007... the writers also added in that they had never and would never give the Gold Glove to a Rookie no matter how good a season he had.

And Tulo also got screwed on ROY that year because the writer's were enamored with Braun's HRs - never mind he made over 3x as many errors as Tulo playing a 1/3 to half as many games.

Helton - screwed on ROY because a guy named Kerry Wood had one good game his Rookie Year and struck out 20. What has Woods done since? Ride the pine alot on the DL.

And I'm sure even if he has the most wins and good era and all, the writers will find a way to screw Ubaldo as well and claim that the 'humidor' helped his numbers so those hypocrites can have it both ways again - Coors Field helped Cargo offensively and helped Baldo defensively.

If anyone thinks I'm a bit peeved over the Coors Field comments, you'd be right.

How about slamming Bonds for the Giants building a stadium that played to his power stroke with McCovey Cove so he could hit more HRs as he got older or the 'band box' the Phillies play in.

When the Coors Field comments come up, it's always negative and I guess no good players should ever come here because theri numbers will always be questioned.

In closing, I know Cargo's numbers are skewed, but in fairness to him and any player - I've siad it before and I'll say it again - your numbers SHOULD be skewed to your HOME PARK. You play HALF your season in it and you should know the power alleys and hot spots. Maybe not to the extreme Cargo's numbers show this year, but they should be skewed.

The comments about the Coors Field effect just sound like we should just quit talking about Cargo because what he is doing isn't real since he plays at Coors Field.

What a crock...

So, come on - let's here all the BS I'm sure will come raining down from my diatribe...

[Instanton]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Could not have said it better, Chris. Fantastic post on denouncing the now-fallacious "Coors effect".


You might enjoy this, Chris: http://cardcop.org/sean_collection/C...ez_Collection/



Not mine, but a sick collection of CarGo.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

The Gold Glove thing with Tulo is a voters thing, not really a Coors Field thing. The same thing happened to Chipper in 2007 he had 9 errors and Wright won the Gold Glove with 21 partially because he hit 30 HRs and 100+ RBIs. Granted he played about 25 more game than Chipper, but 25 in the scheme of 162 isn't a big enough difference to warrant giving it to someone with over double the amount of errors. The humidor improved things, but it wasn't a fix. Cargo's splits are pretty big, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he still hit the homers and drove in the runs. If he keeps it up he should be MVP. As for Ubaldo, he was hot in the beginning and fizzled out He had 16 wins at the All Star break and just got 18. If he doesn't reach 20 he has not shot.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

excuse me, 15 wins for Ubaldo at the break

[legaleagle92481]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

The Coors Field effect is BS. If it helps so much how come Cargo is the ONLY Rockie have an offensive season where he will ecilpse 30/100 with a .300 BA? If you want to talk parks how about the Rangers park. Last year Guerrero looked done this year he is at close to .300 30/100. And Hamilton the guy got to Texas and lit it up after the Rays and Reds both gave up on him. Or Philly J Weryth went from a JAG to an all star. Or Ibanez's first half last year. Or the left field porch at the New Yankee Stadium 25 hrs for Damon last year! Cargo is a young player the split is probably better explained by him being more comfortable playing in friendly, familar terroitory. As far as MVP if he gets close to the TC it is robbery if he does not win it. His team will finish no worse then second with the Pads implosion not looking like it will let up and without him they would finish last. And I agree Holliday was screwed royally in 2007. Though I think Hallday not Jimenez has earned NL Cy Young.