NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

[xpress34]

As of the end of play today, there is a virtual 3 way tie for MVP and the potential that ANY of the three could win the Triple Crown!

Joey Votto:

Runs - 91 Hits - 146 TB - 270 HR - 32 RBI - 93 AVG - .325

Albert Pujols:

Runs - 92 Hits - 154 TB - 292 HR - 35 RBI - 95 AVG - .320

Carlos Gonzalez:

Runs - 86 Hits - 153 TB - 279 HR - 29 RBI - 90 AVG - .326

(TRIPLE CROWN LEADER #'s are in BOLD)

It's promising to be an exciting final month for more than just the pennant chases!!!

- Chris

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I meant to add that the Triple Crown categories are close enough between the three to make for an exciting finish!!!

AVG is only a .006 difference from Top to Bottom

RBI is only a 5 difference from Top to Bottom

HR is only a 6 difference from Top to Bottom

- Chris

[legaleagle92481]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Pujols will take it again. Gonzalez and Votto both will not be on playoff teams. Gonzalez is a great story , amazing year but he has no realistic shot at the tc because to make up six homers at this point is almost impossible unless Pujols gets hurt. Even if Pujols hits only 4 homers rest of the year, Gonzalez would have to hit 11 to top him and 11 for any player in a month is a steep task. I think Gonzalez will win the batting title and be the one person stopping Albert from a Triple Crown (I think he will win the other two categories). I can't see Votto pulling ahead of Pujols in either Hrs or RBIS as the pennant race heats up.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Omar Infante is going to win the batting title, and Albert Pujols is the one on a team that won't make the playoffs, not Joey Votto.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Gonzalez and Votto both will not be on playoff teams.

What???

The Reds are FIVE games ahead of St Louis right now... and you're saying Votto won't be on a Playoff team???

And if you think that St Louis will gain 5 games and win the Division, then it's plausible that the Rockies gain 4.5 and take the Wild Card.

Your statement makes no sense.

If it's close, the voting will go Pujols' way because of his name and Cargo will be the most overlooked because he plays for the Rockies.

Cargo has a good chance pass Pujols and Votto on the RBIs but I agree that the HR lead is the tough nut to crack.

- Chris

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

Omar Infante is going to win the batting title, and Albert Pujols is the one on a team that won't make the playoffs, not Joey Votto.

Hahaha that's funny!

The Braves have 29 games left to play and the qualifier is 502 Plate Appearances.

Infante has 357 right now (ABs + BB + IBB) so he is 145 PAs shy.

At an avg of 3.1 PAs a game (times 29) he will have 89.9 PAs the rest of the season if he plays every game all game.

Even at 4.1 PAs per game he would end up short with just 118.9 more PAs.

He would need to make 5.1 PAs EVERY Game for the REST of the season to make his 502 for the year. That would give him 147.9 more PAs. Just barely more than enough to qualify.

Sorry to shoot that down, but that is FACTUAL based reality.

- Chris

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

At that point he is penalized as going 0 for whatever plate appearences he is missing to qualify at 502. With a 14 point lead he will still proabably win the batting title. That too is FACTUAL.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

What???

The Reds are FIVE games ahead of St Louis right now... and you're saying Votto won't be on a Playoff team???

And if you think that St Louis will gain 5 games and win the Division, then it's plausible that the Rockies gain 4.5 and take the Wild Card.

Your statement makes no sense.

If it's close, the voting will go Pujols' way because of his name and Cargo will be the most overlooked because he plays for the Rockies.

Cargo has a good chance pass Pujols and Votto on the RBIs but I agree that the HR lead is the tough nut to crack.

- Chris

5 games is nothing with a month and change left to play. They have 3 head to head games left. The Cards have much, much more experience and the better overall team and superior coaching. The Mets blew a 7.5 game lead with 17 games to play once so five with over a month is not a huge deal. The Reds will fold in September/October of that I am confidant.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

At that point he is penalized as going 0 for whatever plate appearences he is missing to qualify at 502. With a 14 point lead he will still proabably win the batting title. That too is FACTUAL.

I forgot about the 'backdoor' rule, but he will still have to maintain where he is now for the rest of the season and taking an 0 for XX added to the average could drop it like a rock.

Based on his current pace, he has approximately 1.12 hits per game played (115 hits / 102 games played). That projects to 35.5 more hits so lets call it 151 hits. (I missed the Oct games earlier, so there are 32 games left, not 29)

If he comes up even 20 PAs shy, his average drops like a rock. If he gets 482 PAs with a projected 151 hits, his BA drops to .313. At 502 PAs it drops to .300.

I'm not saying he can't do it, but the numbers don't project well unless he gets a lot of PAs with BB, IBB, HBP, etc. that don't affect his Avg.

If he stays on his current pace of avg 4.9 PAs a game, he will get to 502 on his own, but even then if he stays on his avg of 1.12 hits per game, as stated above, he drops .041 points to .300.

Like Cargo, Infante will have to hit a hot streak to keep his hopes alive. Staying on the pace he is on, his avg will steadily drop.

- Chris

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

5 games is nothing with a month and change left to play. They have 3 head to head games left. The Cards have much, much more experience and the better overall team and superior coaching. The Mets blew a 7.5 game lead with 17 games to play once so five with over a month is not a huge deal. The Reds will fold in September/October of that I am confidant.

So 5 games is nothing but the 4.5 for the Rockies for the Wild card is insurmountable??? Therefore keeping Cargo out of the playoffs???

Counselor -you should know that you can't make an a argument for one side of the court without giving equal time to the other which is exactly what you are stating.

The Rockies have a history of getting hot in September and the Giants and Phillies aren't untouchable either.

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I forgot about the 'backdoor' rule, but he will still have to maintain where he is now for the rest of the season and taking an 0 for XX added to the average could drop it like a rock.

Based on his current pace, he has approximately 1.12 hits per game played (115 hits / 102 games played). That projects to 35.5 more hits so lets call it 151 hits. (I missed the Oct games earlier, so there are 32 games left, not 29)

If he comes up even 20 PAs shy, his average drops like a rock. If he gets 482 PAs with a projected 151 hits, his BA drops to .313. At 502 PAs it drops to .300.

I'm not saying he can't do it, but the numbers don't project well unless he gets a lot of PAs with BB, IBB, HBP, etc. that don't affect his Avg.

If he stays on his current pace of avg 4.9 PAs a game, he will get to 502 on his own, but even then if he stays on his avg of 1.12 hits per game, as stated above, he drops .041 points to .300.

Like Cargo, Infante will have to hit a hot streak to keep his hopes alive. Staying on the pace he is on, his avg will steadily drop.

- Chris

The math doesn't add up. You are saying 1.12 hits per game, but you are not factoring in that he spent the early part of the season coming in in pinch hit roles. That would be one at bat. You can't average games played with hits to tabulate that. That is why based on the math alone of him continuing at 1.12 hits a game his average still dropped 30 points on the math. Did this make sense?

He does have to maintain a good bit to stay there and I will be surprised if he wins it, but as a Braves fan it would be nice for him to win the batting title and get some vindication for all the nay sayers who complained about his all star selection.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

The math doesn't add up. You are saying 1.12 hits per game, but you are not factoring in that he spent the early part of the season coming in in pinch hit roles. That would be one at bat. You can't average games played with hits to tabulate that. That is why based on the math alone of him continuing at 1.12 hits a game his average still dropped 30 points on the math. Did this make sense?

He does have to maintain a good bit to stay there and I will be surprised if he wins it, but as a Braves fan it would be nice for him to win the batting title and get some vindication for all the nay sayers who complained about his all star selection.

I agree with where you're coming from, but the exact thing you are saying is also why you can really only use the Avg formula to get an idea of where he might end up. If he doesn't play every day, every game for the entire game (i.e. he pinch hits, pinch runs, etc) his avg hits per game will balance out. Unfortunately, there is no stat for Innings played by a player - just games -and unlike pitchers I can't find a games started stat either to get a better picture.

I wish them all the best and hope to see a very good race to the end...

- Chris

[lakeerie92]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

That is a valid point too.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

So 5 games is nothing but the 4.5 for the Rockies for the Wild card is insurmountable??? Therefore keeping Cargo out of the playoffs???

Counselor -you should know that you can't make an a argument for one side of the court without giving equal time to the other which is exactly what you are stating.

The Rockies have a history of getting hot in September and the Giants and Phillies aren't untouchable either.

I didn't mention them because they have to jump three teams and imo the Phils don't choke. The Phils have gotten this far with most of their key guys being on the DL for one streach or another but now they are all back. They have won the NL two years in a row, have a loaded team of stars with pressure experience, so I just cannot see them coughing it up. Which is why I didn't mention the WC for the Reds or Cards earlier as well. The Rocks may very well get hot but it won't be enough.

[xpress34]

Re: NL MVP Race should go to the wire!!!!

I didn't mention them because they have to jump three teams and imo the Phils don't choke. The Phils have gotten this far with most of their key guys being on the DL for one streach or another but now they are all back. They have won the NL two years in a row, have a loaded team of stars with pressure experience, so I just cannot see them coughing it up. Which is why I didn't mention the WC for the Reds or Cards earlier as well. The Rocks may very well get hot but it won't be enough.

The Rockies too have had major parts out on the DL all season long including 3/5s of their Starting Rotation (Tulo, Cargo, Fowler, Helton, Francis, Cook, Dela Rosa)- it's not like the Phils are the only team to deal with that - plus losing their Team President Keli McGregor the 1st week of the season.

I guess we'll just have to see how it all plays out... Phils did choke again tonight with their ACE (Halladay) on the hill in LA. They got 1 hit.

I'm just saying...