Resale Values of Certified GU Items Have Officially Collapsed

[commando]

Just an observation. It seems to me that the high point-of-sale prices paid to teams and their resellers for game-used items cannot be recouped on the secondary market. To make matters worse, many teams now think their GU merchandise is much more valuable than it really is, which makes it more difficult for resellers to do bulk buys at a reasonable price.

There are several reasons for this. One is market saturation. The Mets, Cowboys, Royals, Vikings and even the Yankees have made available literally tons of GU items over the past few years, meaning if the item is not from a star player, it's virtually a guarantee that the early buyer is paying too much. Unpurchased equipment continues to have lower and lower asking prices on Ebay, and can be solid acquisitions for those who are patient enough to wait (and are not afraid of losing the item).

I think speculation also plays a huge role. Similar to the card market, where you paid $5 for a rookie card a couple of years ago and it now books for $1.50. More often than not, players either fade from the spotlight or perhaps become a solid player at best. The Colin Kaepernick stories are rare. I think we all understand this, but it is nonetheless a huge reason why buying a newer jersey carries extra risk. I have seen a couple of beautiful Bernard Berrian Vikings jerseys sell on Ebay in the $150 range, complete with the Anniversary patch and J.O. paperwork. A couple of years ago, someone paid upwards of $600 or more for these same jerseys.

The slow economy has impacted all areas of collectables, including game used. A collector might impulse-buy a bat for $20, but probably not a jersey for $250 (unless it is a steal). An argument can be made that there are more sellers than buyers at the moment -- and we know how that impacts the whole supply versus demand thing. The people with money can pick and choose the items they want, while paying much less than they would have a few years ago when more buyers were on the scene.

Nothing too earth-shattering here, but just an obvious, general observation. Any comments?

[hairyangryfella]

I also wonder where some of the bidders/buyers go...

I paid over $950 plus shipping plus import fees for a jersey from NBA Auctions. I cannot even sell it for $700 shipped now.

I'm new to the game, but I'm learning that unless you buy a star or someone who becomes hot, you're unlikely to do anything but lose if or when you try to sell.

[ctguy212003]

Stars or up coming stars is the only way to go. Geting caught buying "cheaper" middle class players will leave you broke. There must be a demand.

[Samets]

I hope the economy impacts the GUU Chicago Bears market even harder... I have some money that I want to spend and farther I can stretch it, better for me!

[COWBOYS4EVR]

Great point you have brought up. I've been thinking this reminds me of
when the trading card business got big in the early 90's. I read an article on
how card company's just pushed out more and more which dropped prices on value. Example Emmitt Smith's rookie card Score 101T. One of the best running backs of all time, book value in 92 was over 400. Today less than 100 bucks and going lower, reason......over saturation of the market.

I only collect football, but my concern is not just only GU items but also issued.
NFL Auctions is playing a big part in this, even though it for a good cause.
Every week there's jerseys of the same player every auction every other week.
Even on eBay there's more than one posted, and just like the card game this will
happen to the jersey market. I believe that for the low dollar on some, collectors are just going with the issued and that's enough for them. Unless its a major milestone jersey with some sort of patch attached or huge hit marks, your gonna maybe break even or lose.

[commando]

You guys are making great points... many thanks for the comments.

Samets, how are Bears prices today versus three or five years ago? Maybe that's not a fair question, because once again, five years ago some of the players would have been highly-regarded prospects.

I know people will say "If you're a collector, value shouldn't matter." And that's true... I have overpaid more than a few times to obtain rare Houston Gamblers items. But the point here is, that across the board most prices are really soft except for the premier items. All the bulk sellers continue to heavily discount their asking prices as their inventory is not moving.

[paul457]

IMHO, buying the new and hot items of the day, whatever they may be, will rarely result in more dollars down the road. You have to collect what you like, vs. being concerned about future value. GU stuff is getting a lot of attention lately, so this stuff is only going to become more plentiful.

Interest (in everything) just fades over the years - look at Joe Montana goods 20 years ago vs today, and compare against values 10 years from now. Sure there are some exeptional items of his that may command more than they did 20 years ago, but that's the exception, not the rule. Now it's Tom Brady - that GU Brady jersey that sold for $40k a couple of years ago? Good luck selling that jersey and getting 1/4 of that in 20 years.

I buy stuff I enjoy, with the assumption that I'm going to take a bath if I ever sell any of it.

[solarlottry]

IMHO, buying the new and hot items of the day, whatever they may be, will rarely result in more dollars down the road. You have to collect what you like, vs. being concerned about future value. GU stuff is getting a lot of attention lately, so this stuff is only going to become more plentiful.

Interest (in everything) just fades over the years - look at Joe Montana goods 20 years ago vs today, and compare against values 10 years from now. Sure there are some exeptional items of his that may command more than they did 20 years ago, but that's the exception, not the rule. Now it's Tom Brady - that GU Brady jersey that sold for $40k a couple of years ago? Good luck selling that jersey and getting 1/4 of that in 20 years.

I buy stuff I enjoy, with the assumption that I'm going to take a bath if I ever sell any of it.

Paul457-I have to disagree on your assessment of Montana prices. What are basing your assessment on? The last authentic Montana shirt to sell with legitimate documentation was his KC Chiefs shirt worn vs Steve Young in 1994. It sold for over 15K without the buyers premium.

Prior to that sale I cannot remember that last time a legit Montana 49er or KC game worn jersey was sold publicly. Sure many have sold via the various auctions houses but I have not been comfortable with purchasing a single one.

I am sure that there has been a handful of private sales of perfectly legit Montana shirts with team letters but when was the last time you saw on for sale anywhere?

I currently own 4 Joe Montana 49er game worn jerseys, all with team letters and photo matches. I paid around 15K for each of them except for one which was considerably cheaper. The cheaper jersey was the exception not the rule though.

I have been collecting 49er game worn jerseys since the early 90s and think that Montana items are harder to find now than 20 years ago. In 1988-1993 the team sold Montana shirts on a regular basis and now 99% are locked up in collections and rarely change hands. Prices were much lower in the early 90s but rose to almost 20K per jersey some years after that. Prices may have come down some over the last few years but not all that much.

Montana shirts will always command a premium as there are so few of his early jerseys available (1979-1984), a handful of his mid 80s shirts around and maybe 30 of his 1988-1990 gamers out there.

Compared to Brady it is a no-brainer as to which jersey is more valuable-MONTANA. He won 4 SBs and had an 18-1 season in 1984 and won the game that counted by demolishing a Dolphins team led by Marino. The 49ers lost one game vs the Steelers by three points, on a bad call and a missed field goal otherwise would have had a perfect season.

Brady is obviously a HOF player and his jerseys will always command a premium. Both players shirts should maintain their value although as the Patriots release more and more Brady gamers, prices may go down.

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

[commando]

Paul457-I have to disagree on your assessment of Montana prices. What are basing your assessment on? The last authentic Montana shirt to sell with legitimate documentation was his KC Chiefs shirt worn vs Steve Young in 1994. It sold for over 15K without the buyers premium.

I'll tell ya though, what really surprised me about the last Goldin Auction was how little the one-of-a-kind Montana items sold for -- and they came directly from Joe himself. His flak jackets selling for only $619 and $550? His knee brace for only $552? Maybe most collectors don't care about the oddball stuff, and maybe these things don't display well... Personally, I think these items are unique and the flak jackets in particular were way undervalued.

[solarlottry]

I'll tell ya though, what really surprised me about the last Goldin Auction was how little the one-of-a-kind Montana items sold for -- and they came directly from Joe himself. His flak jackets selling for only $619 and $550? His knee brace for only $552? Maybe most collectors don't care about the oddball stuff, and maybe these things don't display well... Personally, I think these items are unique and the flak jackets in particular were way undervalued.

I thought that the prices for the Montana items were quite good. I won the KC Montana practice shirt which was over 1300$, which I consider a great price for a practice shirt (a Chiefs one at that!). The flak jackets and knee brace all selling for around 600$ seems about right to me as they are really eclectic items for a focused collector.

I agree that the items are unique but the old law of supply and demand rears it head once again. The items may have brought higher prices if they had been sold in separate auctions. Overall I think all the prices were good and am really looking forward to the next Goldin Auction!!!

Always buying 49er game worn items and paying a finders fee.
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com