the current state of the market and the future

[jbean023]

Dave- to comment on your current state on the entire hobby I have a few opinions. Anyone that thinks the market is declining right now is insane.

Auction houses are setting record sales all across the board on everything right now. I think 5 tool said Puig's first HR bat sold for 10K plus, when was the last time you seen that? Look at mlb auctions, nfl auctions, meigray, goldin, etc. Someone just bid 3,500 for a painted 300lb Chicago Cubs apple. During the basketball playoffs Meigray was auctioning off jerseys worn for only ONE game and folks couldn't get one they were going for so much money. Collectors on here complain about Trout, Harper, Puig game used prices so obviously the market is strong somewhere.

Now on holding I don't know why this happens but rarely will you get what you paid for an item off mlb or nfl auctions. As a collector you need to understand if you buy something on mlb/nfl auctions will you rarely see that money again. The TBTC, BCA, Mother's Day, 9/11,camo, ect all sell for a premium because they are the popular item that moment. Just watching some of these auctions confuse me, watching a Nick Markakis sell for 1K plus, you can get HOF player jerseys for cheaper so obviously the modern market is there. With the technology of authentication and video you can photomatch HR bats, unwashed jerseys, bases, helmets. I myself don't buy vintage because there is to many fakes, I would die for a Ryne Sandberg jersey but everytime I see one there is so many differences and the chance of getting burned for that much makes me cringe. Unless a vintage player was marking bats, you wont see an Ernie Banks homerun bat. I see the same items on ebay sell for thousands more at auction houses. I think the days of collectors being able to have "connections" is slowly coming to an end. You will have the here and there stories but mlb, nfl, nba, agents, ect are taking everything they can from the players. People were buying shower shoes from the Tigers last season and I remember a fellow collector talking about the Tigers authenticating urinal cakes lol.

When you buy a Willie Mays bat you could be buying a bat that he hit a homerun with or you could be paying 10s of thousands of dollars for a bat that he gave to the neighbor kid that he threw batting practice to.

Just a small sample of my opinion on how the market is, you could have this conversation for months.

[helf35]

For me everything has come in stages. As a kid like most of us it started with cards. I came into the game around the time of the elite griffey upperdeck card. I was 8 and now I'm 31 and the card decreased in value. Cards stopped being fun for me when it became a pain to hunt down an insert in a Beckett because there are so many and the fact its $5 a pack. Then when I discovered soxfest in Chicago it became autographed photos and balls. Im proud to say i have been 16 years straight and god willing i will continue the streak for many more years to come. now the only signed balls i get are personalized to my son. he has about a dozen and he hasnt hit 2 yet. Like most of you I got sick and tired of my pujols gold homerun derby balls fading and my mark teahen ball staying prestine so I have moved on to strictly bats although I have a few jerseys and batting gloves. Out of 367 autographed baseballs I have had about a dozen fade and all were my expensive balls. 4 of which were pujols and one was my personal favorite brade lidge World Series ball under the logo with podsednik on the sweet spot inscribed game 2 walkoff hr. personally I don't think it will ever recover. I feel it will be just like cards, whatever the value is expect half.