Game Used Market Depressed?

[allstarsplus]

it's depressed because the market is flooded and buyers aren't as uneducated as they once were. i don't see how it will rebound. the supply is just going to keep increasing. buyers are just going to keep getting smarter. in 3 more years, there will be another 600 ortiz jerseys on the market and even fewer buyers willing to fall for them. i don't see how any of it is going to improve. the older stuff is strong because, as i said, the supply is very limited. plus most of it shows far better use than today's mint, crisp "gamers". the stuff today seems like it's being pumped off an assembly line 24/7.

rudy.

Rudy - I would partially agree that segments of the market is flooded, but there are plenty of players in high demand still as I mentioned in my earlier Post about the Pujols, Ripken, Jeter, Ryan Howard to name a few are always mentioned here and their demand is high with a low supply of "real" items. Real items being the operative word. You are right that education is a problem and potentially it may be the biggest problem in the industry because for every fake purchased it potentially leaves one real one in the supply chain. I think the problem goes further as demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes.

Blanket statements about the modern market can't be true when the Bonds 715 HR ball sells for $220,100. The market is selective and unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion.

[kingjammy24]

hi andrew,

when i said that i believe the market is flooded, i meant flooded with both legit items and garbage. i believe there are more legit items and more garbage than there was 15 yrs ago. you indicate that demand is still high for certain superstars and supply of their legit items is low. while i have little doubt that demand for superstars has always and will always be high, i'd offer that terms like "low supply" are relative. i'd say that there are more legit items from a typical superstar available on the market today than there were 15 yrs ago. after the end of the 2005 season, for example, i'd say there were more legit pujols jerseys available than there were legit ripkens after the 1988 season. supply is higher today in every aspect. demand will always be there for the superstars but if supply has increased, then prices must also decrease and that's what we're talking about; a decrease in adjusted prices.

i don't believe my "blanket statement can't be true" simply because of a single sale of a highly-niche, extremely low-supply item like the bonds ball. an aberration doesn't negate a generalization. (it's safe to say smoking causes lung cancer despite the fact that there've been smokers who did not develop lung cancer.) the bonds ball is an anomaly because of the nature of the item. previously i was referring exclusively to jerseys and noted how the insane supply of modern jerseys is depressing prices. although the bonds ball is a "modern item", the similarities stop there and for the purposes of discussing prices, the ball and modern jerseys couldn't be more dissimilar. there is no huge supply of historic HR balls. how many historic balls are on the market? how many historic balls come on the market each season? every season, crates of superstar jerseys come on the market. you can't just produce a 715 HR ball each season. you realize that there are only 2 715 balls ever hit in the history of the major leagues? pointing to an insanely scarce item like a 715 HR ball and saying "see..modern items still fetch high prices" isn't really fair is it?

if anyone really wanted to prove that adjusted prices are heading downwards for modern items of superstar players, then you've got to compare similar items.

here's a start:

2003 Arod jersey auctioned off by Lelands in Dec 2005 - $1720 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=512&lot=645 )

this exact same jersey previously sold at a Dec 2004 Lelands auction for $2345 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=412&lot=1106 )

"..unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion."

i completely agree. however, you can't use one-of-a-kind items as a general barometer for modern prices because the items are, in fact, one-of-a-kind.

"..demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes."

i completely and wholeheartedly agree.

rudy.

[allstarsplus]

here's a start:

2003 Arod jersey auctioned off by Lelands in Dec 2005 - $1720 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=512&lot=645 )

this exact same jersey previously sold at a Dec 2004 Lelands auction for $2345 ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=412&lot=1106 )

"..unique and one-of-a-kind items fare much better in my opinion."

i completely agree. however, you can't use one-of-a-kind items as a general barometer for modern prices because the items are, in fact, one-of-a-kind.

"..demand is lessened by the trepidation of buyers that won't jump in because lack of confidence due to all the fakes."

i completely and wholeheartedly agree.

rudy.

Rudy - Thanks for the clarification and I believe we are on the same page.

My only thought with the modern player and their pricing is that their prices will see fluctuations as they change teams, current performance, current statistics, scandal, and public perception as they relate to supply and demand and market fluctuation.

Scandal hits Rafael Palmeiro is an example that ESM won't soon forget, but you also have ARod goes from the Rangers to the Yankees is one example of how a team change may affect the value of his Rangers items, and public perception of Barry Bonds may affect the value of his items.

There is a myriad of factors that affect the demand side.

Andrew