Game Used Market Depressed?

[MVP]

I am curious to know if people think the game used market is "depressed"? If so, what are the reasons? Will it rebound?

I seems that both the all star player game used stuff and lower level players stuff has dropped quite a bit over the last few years. You would see modern star jerseys going for $1500+ a few years ago and now only around $800+. Mediocre players used to go for $150+ and now are around $100.

The older stuff seems to still be strong.

What are the reasons? more supply than demand?

-Henry

[allstarsplus]

Great question. The law of economics of supply and demand will determine overall what happens to the game used market. There is certainly more game used items on the market today (supply) then there were 5 years ago so the bigger question is if there are more buyers today (demand).

Then you have to look at each player and their supply/demand. Pujols, Ripken, Jeter, Ryan Howard are names always mentioned here and their demand is high with a low supply of "real" items. Now if Pujols dumped 100 game used bats on the market today I would think his prices would drop.

Here is a great example from Kylehess with Jose Guillen batting gloves---70 pairs of gloves and they keep getting bids but prices have certainly dropped over time because of supply and demand:

kylehess10 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 345
Jose Guillen 2005 Batting Gloves.....
ESM has listed on eBay atleast 70 pairs of Jose Guillen 2005 game worn batting gloves since I think January and they are currently still listing more every week!!


My favorite observation of supply/demand and market equilibrium was when Steiner 1st starting selling the Mark McGwire signed baseballs. There was a major shortage of "real" McGwire sigs and when the signed baseballs hit eBay they were initially selling for over $800. Now they are hitting $300+ on eBay. There was a time on eBay I had seen them at the upper $200's.

[RobSteinmetz]

Good points, Andrew. We're definitely experiencing a correction in the modern market, especially in major auctions. Does anyone attribute lower prices realized on modern jerseys and equipment to trust issues with specific auction houses, the authenticators they use, and the fact that (in most cases) all sales are final? What about the fact that there are now fewer card companies buying game used memorabilia in major auctions? Personally, I think there are many factors at play, but I'm interested in other people's opinions.

[ahuff]

I know I have vowed to never purchase from an auction house that uses Lou Lampson, just due to my past dealings with his authentications, so I am sure that has influenced some of the market correction.

Also, were there use to be just two or three jersey sets, for each style, we have seen upwards of 20 in the Blue Jays orginization, and who knows about the likes of Manny, Bonds, Tejada, and others that sell their items to ESM or on their own. Definately an increase in supply.

But how about this. . .the tagging indicators on many game used items has decreased. Take, for instance, the Rockies. I have purchased many Rockies items over the years. There use to be a paper year tag on each of the jerseys I purchased. Not only was this a great indicator to look for to determine the season it was worn and a clue to its authenticity, but it also showed the extent of the wear. Now, there seems to only be the 0062 tag and sometimes there is the MLB hologram on them. The hologram has been proven to be inaccurate, at times, and now fraudulent people have begun flooding the market with bogus jerseys that they have simply sewn a 0062 tag on. To me, it is harder to determine the season many of the jerseys were worn, unless there is a commemorative patch, and even harder to tell the amount of wear the jersey has seen.

[Utopian2630]

Hey Everyone,

I happen to agree with AllStarsPlus in that supply and demand affect the way the game-used market has been. Though I've only been seriously collecting game used merchandise for 12 years, I am sure many of our more experienced forum members can remember a time when dealers who specialized in game-used memorabilia were few and far between. I can remember card shows where you'd find ONE...maybe TWO dealers selling game-used memorabilia, now I'm sure most card shows have dozens. Also things like the internet (eBay other auction sites) come into play. If you went back to those times when you'd find a handful of game-used dealers on the market, you might be willing to pay their price since they were the only dealers. Now, consumers have more options to find game-used memorabilia. Unfortunately, the internet also opens the doors for fraud, because more information about the specifics of game-used items become available. Thank about it, would the average collector 12 years ago have instant access to finding out a certain player's jersey size, length and any other individual characteristics?

Basically, I guess that’s my long-winded way of saying supply and demand...not much going on at work today so I guess I have time to ramble on!

[allstarsplus]

I know I have vowed to never purchase from an auction house that uses Lou Lampson, just due to my past dealings with his authentications, so I am sure that has influenced some of the market correction.

This Forum has so many passionate buyers that probably feel the same as you do.

It seems every Cal Ripken jersey on the market has a Lampson COA which in my opinion has unfairly put a lower market value on those items.

As a seller that consigns to auction houses, I won't consign to an auction house if Lou is authenticating for the reason I think I would lose bidders which would affect my final price.

[allstarsplus]

A friend just called me about this thread to say the market strength is stronger than ever in unique items and referred to the $50,000 to $100,000 estimate on that Bonds 715 HR ball that sold for $220,100!!!!!

http://cgi.ebay.com/Barry-Bonds-No-7...QQcmdZViewItem

That is a great point and probably pertains to a lot of the one-of-a-kind items and vintage pieces. Again it is supply vs. demand. If there is only 1 item, and 4 or 5 passionate bidders like there was on that Bonds ball, the final price should go up.

The same with the special Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, and Shoeless Joe Jackson pieces that have sold for huge money.

[JimCaravello]

My personal opinion is that the post 80 bat and jersey game used market is taking a bath right now.......too much product out there.....a great example is that Steiner has flooded the market with Yankees jerseys. The Vintage market is still strong - although the annual increase on call it game used bat and jersey items from the 60's - 80's has been nominal. The pre-1960 - High Grade - Star bat and Jersey market is very strong..........Jim

[kingjammy24]

given a free market, prices are always indicative of supply vs. demand. unfortunately, that doesn't really say much to explain either the current supply or the current demand. some thoughts:

- the older stuff is more attractive on many levels and is going hold value better. for one, it hails from a time when players seem to have been issued and used fewer jerseys. not only does this restrict the supply, but it also means the older jerseys tend to show far more use. secondly, the supply back then wasn't being artificially pumped up by people with access to pro-spec jerseys looking to make money.

- the supply of jerseys has obviously increased dramatically. mlb, teams, players, etc seem to be getting in on the market by increasing the supply. unfortunately, they're too short-sighted to realize that by doing this is killing the long term potential. it's no different than the baseball card scenario of the 90s. cards were in demand and card companies responded by pumping out cards by the bushel. you could tell they had some brilliant folks at the controls. "let's make lots of dough in the short term even if it means completely killing the entire business in the long term". i can't see how modern gamers aren't going to eventually go down a similar path. everybody's ordering pro-spec jerseys to cash in, selling them as gamers, and the next thing you know you've got 300 2005 david ortiz jerseys out there and nobody wants any of them. (big round of applause for ortiz's buddies). i think the supply of current jerseys is insane.

- aside from the supply, i think the demand is as great as it ever was if not more. game-used memorabilia is more readily available and advertised than it ever was. i think more people are interested in gamers now than 20 yrs ago. however, even though the demand is there, i think actual purchasing levels are down buyers are also being more selective. they're more selective because they're becoming more educated (thanks in part to this Forum) and they're realizing that many authenticators and auction houses aren't as trustworthy as their PR releases and marketing schlock state. previously, i think purchasing levels were based far more on uneducated buyers. you'd get a scoreboard bo jackson at auction and the thing would go for over $1800 ( http://www.americanmemorabilia.com/A...ction_ID=19198 ). now the same jersey barely gets over $200 on ebay ( http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...m=290054018919 ). again, in 2002, a 1990 scoreboard canseco went for over $1200 at lelands ( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=205&lot=1979 ). now the same jersey at the same auction house is looking to sell for far less( http://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?auctionid=611&lot=672 ). (i don't believe canseco's steroid admissions have much to do that particular jersey as gamers that sold directly from canseco, showing amazing wear, typically sold for $700+ AFTER his steroid admissions.) buyers have obviously become of the scoreboard jerseys. (too bad leland's hasn't).
here's a 2002 arod "gamer" (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...m=290054814819 ) that's ending in a few hours and is currently at less than $510, offered by Elite Sports Marketing: "..only the best!". is an arod gamer really worth only $510? how much would it be with a meigray tag and paperwork? i'd have to think at least $1100. so why is it going for so little? apparently other buyers feel the same way about ESM that i do and they're being more discerning and letting their wallets speak.
the demand is at the levels it always was but buyers aren't so willing to toss their money away as they once were.

anyway, to answer your original questions henry:

it's depressed because the market is flooded and buyers aren't as uneducated as they once were. i don't see how it will rebound. the supply is just going to keep increasing. buyers are just going to keep getting smarter. in 3 more years, there will be another 600 ortiz jerseys on the market and even fewer buyers willing to fall for them. i don't see how any of it is going to improve. the older stuff is strong because, as i said, the supply is very limited. plus most of it shows far better use than today's mint, crisp "gamers". the stuff today seems like it's being pumped off an assembly line 24/7.

rudy.

[MVP]

Thanks for all the great responses. I had a feeling there would be some well thought out observations on the state of the hobby.

-Henry