Trout prices are going through the roof......

[MikeKam]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

If you're talking about the Zinger bat that I told you was likely no good, I really don't think the prices will go much higher than what you paid. There are WAY too many issue with that set of bats with the odd font.

No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

[johnsontravis@ymail.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

No you are paying HOF price. That is what collectors are doing these days. Buying stuff at the height of a HOF players career will be top dollar. Honest Cabrera, Puid, Trout stuff can on go down at this point. It is all just so high. Something BIG would have to happen in their career other than the HOF induction.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

No, it isn't that one.

Just want a general idea of what I can expect from their items and whether they're good investments. I know some of the older stars before this market became so saturated had their items go up in price once they retired/got into the HOF.

Full disclosure: I sold all my Cabrera game used stuff after the All-Star break last season. I can't see there being much of a market for his items due to economics.

1) Supply-side economics: Cabrera (and most stars these days) have marketing agencies who specifically exist to distribute their game used equipment. The supply increases each season, since players keep playing and creating more gamers. Unless the item is tied to a specific event (300th HR, 1500th RBI, etc) or a rookie item, it's unlikely to gain significantly in value, when adjusted for inflation. Even for stars without their own marketing agency, the teams and the MLB authentication program effectively create a ceiling on what items will be worth, since it never makes sense to buy a non-MLB authenticated gamer for more than MLB is selling the same item.

2) Demand-side economics: Cabrera is Hispanic. Traditionally, Hispanic/Latino players aren't as popular among those who are willing to blow money on game used items. This is visible by looking at the value of Clemente items relative to those of his peer group. Cabrera is special, due to the Triple Crown connection, but the fact that the MLB media and analysts constantly talk about Mike Trout being "once in a generation" talent reflects this bias against Hispanic/Latino players. Similar to how collectors/HOF voters have an East Coast bias (perceived or real), there is a similar bias against Hispanic players. Couple that with his best years coming in the mid-West, and the values of his items probably won't be in great enough demand to be a viable investment.

I was shocked when I saw people asking north of $1000 for Cabrera gamer bats. Once I saw those prices, I sold my cleats, my jersey and my three bats. Why? I bought the items early in his career due to seeing him as a feisty player who could see the ball better than most. I think for all my items, I paid about $1500. I sold everything for about $5000. It simply was not worth "having a part of Miggy's career" for such a high price.

I'm really curious about what the media will do when Trout goes down with another extended injury, though. If the game used memorabilia market were somewhat rational, I'd say start buying Bryce Harper items. Unfortunately, when he started coming up short of expectations, the prices didn't follow suit. Why? Because speculators refuse to believe that they overpaid by 50% (or more) for something, and are willing to "wait it out" to simply not be at a loss.

Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

[calmanagement]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Full disclosure: I sold all my Cabrera game used stuff after the All-Star break last season. I can't see there being much of a market for his items due to economics.

1) Supply-side economics: Cabrera (and most stars these days) have marketing agencies who specifically exist to distribute their game used equipment. The supply increases each season, since players keep playing and creating more gamers. Unless the item is tied to a specific event (300th HR, 1500th RBI, etc) or a rookie item, it's unlikely to gain significantly in value, when adjusted for inflation. Even for stars without their own marketing agency, the teams and the MLB authentication program effectively create a ceiling on what items will be worth, since it never makes sense to buy a non-MLB authenticated gamer for more than MLB is selling the same item.

Cabrera does not have a marketing agency that distributes his gu items. The Tigers Authentics Department controls his hit balls, jerseys & bats. His cleats that have hit the market are from DC sports (exclusive auto agreement) or through Miggy personal connections. The only item of Miggy's that is saturating the market are game used jerseys, however, demand has been there for now so prices remain elevated.

As far as bats go he is one of the absolute toughest to obtain. He rarely is fooled on pitches and doesn't break many bats. So far through 39 games this season Miggy has broken two (2) bats!!! One hit auction this past week and sold for $2,510. The other was given to a fan in Minnesota after the game. In 2013 Miggy only broke 8 bats. That's 10 MLB authenticated bats from the last 201 games. A bat from 2012-2014 that is MLB authenticated will never sell below $1,500 again. Ever!!! If Miggy continues this legendary pace these bats will probably continue to sell for far more than the $1,500 benchmark.

2) Demand-side economics: Cabrera is Hispanic. Traditionally, Hispanic/Latino players aren't as popular among those who are willing to blow money on game used items. This is visible by looking at the value of Clemente items relative to those of his peer group. Cabrera is special, due to the Triple Crown connection, but the fact that the MLB media and analysts constantly talk about Mike Trout being "once in a generation" talent reflects this bias against Hispanic/Latino players. Similar to how collectors/HOF voters have an East Coast bias (perceived or real), there is a similar bias against Hispanic players. Couple that with his best years coming in the mid-West, and the values of his items probably won't be in great enough demand to be a viable investment.

BS BS BS. I give no credence to your Hispanic/Latino claim whatsoever. While Detroit's payroll is up with the big boys the market is more local than national. If Miggy was a Yankee, Dodger, Red Sox than his bats would be selling for $5k each.


Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

Hahahahahahahahaha. Anybody that wants to sell me a Miggy gamer for $700 please contact me immediately. I will buy every mlb authenticated bat you have (Tigers Years).

[johnsontravis@ymail.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Full disclosure: Now, if you found a legitimate Cabrera signed gamer with true Miggy use characteristics for $400 or so, then, yes, you will likely make your money back. However, if you paid over $700 for a marginal (at best) bat, you're probably going to be holding onto it for a while unless Abreu's injury lasts more than a month. That might be long enough for Miggy to make it back to front-runner for the MVP award for a third consecutive year.

Abreu? MVP? Injury or not his chances at the MVP are very very unlikely. For starters his team needs to make the playoffs and then he needs better stats...mostly concerning average.

Abreu is a great player, but at the end of the season I can't even see him in the conversation. It is all start of the season hype, it will come back down soon enough.

[frikativ54]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

It's interesting: I talked with the Astros a few days ago, and they are having their best players wear more jerseys, "to meet demand." While, for your average collector, who just wants a shirt off Jose Altuve's back, that's okay, for me, this is an unwelcome development.

They won't have Altuve wear a jersey a game, or anything like that, but even Houston, which has historically not churned out jerseys, is seeing the value of having players wear more shirts. Per Twitter, Altuve's Sunday alternate will be on MLB.com Auctions shortly.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Abreu? MVP? Injury or not his chances at the MVP are very very unlikely. For starters his team needs to make the playoffs and then he needs better stats...mostly concerning average.

Abreu is a great player, but at the end of the season I can't even see him in the conversation. It is all start of the season hype, it will come back down soon enough.

That isn't really what I meant to imply. If Abreu wins the HR crown (which isn't exactly unlikely), it stands to reason that MVP voters will say "Oh, it's easy to put up offense in the AL Central" not realizing that the playing in Cellular Field has a lot to do with it, as well.

[MikeKam]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

That isn't really what I meant to imply. If Abreu wins the HR crown (which isn't exactly unlikely), it stands to reason that MVP voters will say "Oh, it's easy to put up offense in the AL Central" not realizing that the playing in Cellular Field has a lot to do with it, as well.

Cabrera is having a much better offensive season than Abreu. Only thing Abreu has going for him are home runs.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Cabrera is having a much better offensive season than Abreu. Only thing Abreu has going for him are home runs.

This statement is about as far from accurate as you can be. Cabrera and Abreu have approximately the same value as players this season. Cabrera's wOBA is .383, while Abreu's is .377. Given that Abreu's BABiP is about 75 points lower than Cabrera's, the two are having very similar seasons, with Abreu suffering from a lot more bad luck. Cabrera's walk rates are well off his career averages, and, so far this season, he hasn't really been Cabrera-like.

The reason this doesn't exactly bode well for Cabrera is the fact that he is normally a fast starter.

While good, and possibly All-Star good, .315/.357/.532 isn't really MVP-caliber. Remember, Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 in 2011, and he finished 5th in the MVP voting.

I'm not advocating for Abreu to win the MVP award or even suggesting he's in contention for it, but I will hold to my statement that a healthy Abreu has a negative impact on Miggy's chances of the three-peat.

That said, offense has come at such a premium this year, that it's possible Yu Darvish might be the front-runner heading into the All-Star break. He's currently on pace for a WAR in the 9+ range.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

This is a unique market full of variables to consider.....especially game used bat and fielding glove markets.

The game used card market crashed largely due to the mass exodus to full game used items instead of pieces in my opinion...

Card collecting in general was/is popular because fans want to have something tied to their favorite players. If collectors bail on game used items something must provide a better alternative to get "closer" to the game and player.....besides a scenario like Robert De Niro in the movie The Fan, I don't know how much closer you can get to being a part of the game.


Most players are extremely picky when it comes to two items in particular bats and fielding gloves.....Most players treat their playing gloves like a child and they carefully broken-in to their feel until deemed "game-ready" and from that point on they are to be only handled by a select few any within the team. Bats are usually weighed, prepped, sometimes even blessed and then separated for gamers and bp bats by most players. You will catch players talking to bats, handling bats in between at bats, kissing bats, etc....

Jerseys, cleats, batting gloves, caps, batting helmets are much less personal for most players although everyone has their quirks obviously....for these items teams can mass produce, issue new items, switch each game and flood the market. Good luck getting a player to switch fielding gloves during the year or have a player use multiple bats when they have a bat that feels right at the plate......

True gamers for bats and fielding gloves in my opinion have much less of a chance to "crash" because there will always only be a limited quantity of legitimate actual game used items specifically for these two categories. Game issued would be a different story since bat companies produce more bats and gloves than ever hoping to have the marketing of a MLB player using their equipment.

[MikeKam]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

This statement is about as far from accurate as you can be. Cabrera and Abreu have approximately the same value as players this season. Cabrera's wOBA is .383, while Abreu's is .377. Given that Abreu's BABiP is about 75 points lower than Cabrera's, the two are having very similar seasons, with Abreu suffering from a lot more bad luck. Cabrera's walk rates are well off his career averages, and, so far this season, he hasn't really been Cabrera-like.

The reason this doesn't exactly bode well for Cabrera is the fact that he is normally a fast starter.

While good, and possibly All-Star good, .315/.357/.532 isn't really MVP-caliber. Remember, Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 in 2011, and he finished 5th in the MVP voting.

I'm not advocating for Abreu to win the MVP award or even suggesting he's in contention for it, but I will hold to my statement that a healthy Abreu has a negative impact on Miggy's chances of the three-peat.

That said, offense has come at such a premium this year, that it's possible Yu Darvish might be the front-runner heading into the All-Star break. He's currently on pace for a WAR in the 9+ range.

Well if you want to talk WAR, Cabrera already has a higher WAR with 5 less games played. He started the season (first 20ish games) terribly, but since then he has looked like his usual MVP-self.

[xpress34]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

This is a unique market full of variables to consider.....especially game used bat and fielding glove markets.

The game used card market crashed largely due to the mass exodus to full game used items instead of pieces in my opinion...

Card collecting in general was/is popular because fans want to have something tied to their favorite players. If collectors bail on game used items something must provide a better alternative to get "closer" to the game and player.....besides a scenario like Robert De Niro in the movie The Fan, I don't know how much closer you can get to being a part of the game.


Most players are extremely picky when it comes to two items in particular bats and fielding gloves.....Most players treat their playing gloves like a child and they carefully broken-in to their feel until deemed "game-ready" and from that point on they are to be only handled by a select few any within the team. Bats are usually weighed, prepped, sometimes even blessed and then separated for gamers and bp bats by most players. You will catch players talking to bats, handling bats in between at bats, kissing bats, etc....

Jerseys, cleats, batting gloves, caps, batting helmets are much less personal for most players although everyone has their quirks obviously....for these items teams can mass produce, issue new items, switch each game and flood the market. Good luck getting a player to switch fielding gloves during the year or have a player use multiple bats when they have a bat that feels right at the plate......

True gamers for bats and fielding gloves in my opinion have much less of a chance to "crash" because there will always only be a limited quantity of legitimate actual game used items specifically for these two categories. Game issued would be a different story since bat companies produce more bats and gloves than ever hoping to have the marketing of a MLB player using their equipment.

STL -

I highlighted BATTING HELMETS, because with the introduction SPC100 last year, unless a player breaks his helmet, he will more than likely use the same helmet from Spring Training until the end of the season. At $600.00 each (team cost with custom paint and decals), they won't be 'mass producing' batting helmets.

The Old 'Cool Flo' and the helmets before that cost the teams about $125 or so each - less than the cost of a jersey.

Just wanted to put that out there.

- Smitty

[emann]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

STL -

I highlighted BATTING HELMETS, because with the introduction SPC100 last year, unless a player breaks his helmet, he will more than likely use the same helmet from Spring Training until the end of the season. At $600.00 each (team cost with custom paint and decals), they won't be 'mass producing' batting helmets.

The Old 'Cool Flo' and the helmets before that cost the teams about $125 or so each - less than the cost of a jersey.

Just wanted to put that out there.

Most teams in the '13 postseason switched star player's helmets out from the regular season ones, I don't think this is an issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if certain teams start pulling helmets for each postseason series or game...

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Well if you want to talk WAR, Cabrera already has a higher WAR with 5 less games played. He started the season (first 20ish games) terribly, but since then he has looked like his usual MVP-self.

I only mentioned WAR, since I don't know how to compare wOBA for hitters to xFIP for pitchers. I don't think the voters look at WAR, but they do seem to trend toward awarding good wOBA numbers.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Trout prices are going through the roof......

Hahahahahahahahaha. Anybody that wants to sell me a Miggy gamer for $700 please contact me immediately. I will buy every mlb authenticated bat you have (Tigers Years).

That's the point. MLB authenticated bats aren't what are selling for the $700 range. Maybe Mike can offer some insight here. I know the original bat that I said was no good had no MLB authentication and even had somewhat questionable origin (looked like a sample bat). Is the new bat that you bought MLB authenticated, Mike?