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Thread: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
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12-23-2014, 11:36 PM #11
Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
Thanks—that Jeter game was a pretty unique event to be able to attend. There was definitely more Yankees blue in the crowd than normal Red Sox/Yankees games (certainly in the section I was in, about 7 rows from 3rd base side of the field). And as a diehard Sox fan, it was a little surreal openly cheering for Jeter AT FENWAY.
But, worth the price of admission for sure!
. . . and a happy holiday to you too Sal!
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12-24-2014, 07:08 AM #12
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Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
Assuming he wasn't absurdly held back in high-A for a completely unorthodox approach to hitting, he would have made his MLB debut at 19 or 20. Remember, Suzuki would have been coming up in the 90s, when players would regularly move up a full level (none of this weird, six levels of MiLB) per season, sometimes two levels. If he were remotely as successful in MLB as he was in NPB (meaning .280 as opposed to .350), he would have had 1200 hits over his age 20-26 seasons. 170 hits a season is all it would take. I highly doubt he wouldn't be able to post those numbers, given he absolutely destroyed that standard during his time with Seattle. Even accounting for some sort of bias against style holding him back until age 22, he would have five full seasons to add to his total. Let's assume Suzuki pre-27 was somehow only capable of averaging 190 hits per season, that puts him at 3800 for his career. 4000 hits would definitely be within reach. Now, let's be somewhat more realistic and actually track his year by year probables:
1994 - 90 hits (I think this is a safe assumption, given Eric Anthony had 79 games in LF, while batting an abysmal .237)
1995 - 160 hits (with Griffey hurt and an aging Vince Coleman taking actual reps, I could see Suzuki batting leadoff at least 100 games and playing some role in 120 games)
1996 - 185 hits in his first truly full time season
1997 - 210 hits
1998 - 220 hits
1999 - 215 hits
2000 - 210 hits
1994-2000: 1290 hits
2001-pres: 2844 hits
Hypothetical all US career for Suzuki: 4134 hits through age-40 season
123 hits shy of being the "all time hit king" at that point, I could see Suzuki not only breaking Rose's record, but possibly holding on through age-45 in pursuit of 4500 hits for his career. If he managed to beat that pace and get to 4680 by age 46, he might even stick around to get to 5000 hits.
If this were the 70s (or maybe even the 80s), I could see an argument against Suzuki getting much playing time, due to racism in the league among other reasons, but given he started with the Mariners and a progressive league that we have today, I doubt any manager would hold him back just to ensure the record remained in the name of a US born player.
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12-24-2014, 08:27 AM #13
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Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
Name all of the players who played their first MLB games at age 19 during the 90's.
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12-24-2014, 09:35 AM #14admin_oldGuest
Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
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12-24-2014, 09:41 AM #15admin_oldGuest
Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
That being said, I think Ichiro's debut season made it clear he was more than ready to hit in mlb. How he would have been at 20, 21, 22 is anyone's guess. I personally think he'd be flirting with 4000. Truly an awesome career, I hope he hangs it up sooner than later. Watching a .230 Ichiro would be sad.
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12-24-2014, 10:03 PM #16
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12-24-2014, 10:47 PM #17
Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
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12-25-2014, 12:18 AM #18
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Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
The modeling I used showed Suzuki's first season as 1994. He would have been 20 in that year. I didn't even have him playing a full season at age 20 in MLB. I had him playing half the season that year. If he starts at age 19 instead of age 20, that would likely add 140+ hits to the pre-2001 total. In fact, Suzuki turned 21 shortly after the end of the 1994 season, so I really think he would have been called up by mid-1994, assuming there was no bias against his style of hitting nor ethnicity.
For what it's worth, there were 50 players called up at age 20 or younger in the 90s, or five per season. I don't think it would be a stretch for a team that somehow had Suzuki in their minor league system batting .320 to at least get a look.
But since you asked (1990-1999 debut season, grouped by age):
18 (1):
Alex Rodriguez
19 (7):
Adrian Beltre
Rich Garces
Karim Garcia
Andruw Jones
Aramis Ramirez
Ivan Rodriguez
Todd van Poppel
20 (42):
Rick Ankiel
Steve Avery
Dee Brown
Mike Caruso
Luis Castillo
Roger Cedeno
Eric Chavez
Wilfredo Cordero
Gookie Dawkins
Jeff D'Amico
Lance Dickson
Hector Fajardo
Alex Fernandez
Cliff Floyd
Benji Gil
Alex Gonzalez
Shawn Green
Willie Greene
Jose Guillen
Johnny Guzman
Mike Hampton
Todd Hundley
Derek Jeter
Jeff Juden
Byung-Hyun Kim
Gene Kingsale
Brent Knackert
Pedro Martinez
Gil Meche
Ramon Morel
Marc Newfield
Melvin Nieves
Chan Ho Park
Edgar Renteria
Dennys Reyes
Matt Riley
Jeff Suppan
Julian Tavarez
Ismael Valdez
Vernon Wells
Kerry Wood
Esteban Yan
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12-25-2014, 02:36 AM #19
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Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
So 8 in the 90's. Less than one per year.
Bottom line is like so much in baseball there is much conjecture and no way of knowing.
I think he is one of the best contact hitters I have ever seen not to mention his fielding and base running. I have said many times he was a much better player than Jeter.
I have nothing but respect for his game and how he played it.
But he didn't start his career in mlb so what he would have done or when he would have been called up is nothing but guesses.
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12-25-2014, 02:50 AM #20
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Re: Ichiro Suzuki Baseball Future
And I seriously doubt his "ethnicity" would have held him back. Baseball at least for the last 70 years is as inclusive and welcoming as any business in existence. If you can play you will get your shot.
We shouldnt look for racism that isnt there.