Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Anyone who watches sports has probably heard that Joey Gallo had a HR in each of his first two MLB games, but has everyone seen how crazy his K-rate is?

As of this moment, Gallo has two Ks in two ABs in his third game. That gives him six on the season in eleven ABs.

Gallo's K-rate is .600. His batting avg is .400. His BABiP is 1.000.

Obviously some regression is expected in the BABiP department, but it seems the avg of 2 Ks per game may be more norm than deviant.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

He has faced two very tough lefties which will affect most LH batters especially a 21 yr old rookie but yes he swings big, hits big and misses big. Shocking...no.

[xpress34]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

Really? Let's rip on a guy in the middle of only his 3rd MLB game???

SMH.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

Really? Let's rip on a guy in the middle of only his 3rd MLB game???

SMH.

I wasn't ripping on him. It was more that I was amazed that he had a 1.000 BABiP at that point. It's now gone down, since he apparently flew out to center in the sixth inning of today's game.

SMH at you SYH at someone commenting on K rates of a prospect who has shown a long swing throughout his minor league career, as well:

296 G
1056 AB
104 HR
429 K

Yes, he has a ton of power, but he also has a LOT of swing and miss.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

And for those of you who (like me) didn't know what SMH stands for, it's "shaking my head." I only found this out two weeks ago by asking my friend about it.

[STLHAMMER32]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

It was 2 games.......there is nothing historic about that small of a sample size.

I think this thread should be locked due to the amount of abbreviations used...it has to violate some rule..........

[xpress34]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

I wasn't ripping on him. It was more that I was amazed that he had a 1.000 BABiP at that point. It's now gone down, since he apparently flew out to center in the sixth inning of today's game.

SMH at you SYH at someone commenting on K rates of a prospect who has shown a long swing throughout his minor league career, as well:

296 G
1056 AB
104 HR
429 K

Yes, he has a ton of power, but he also has a LOT of swing and miss.

And that could change. Example? On the Defensive side, Nolan Arenado was said to be a defensive liability - even as he was moving from AA to AAA. Now he's putting on another showcase as he looks to take his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove at 3rd base.

I personally think you're making too much out of nothing. When he has a season or two under his belt, then is the time to start analyzing his numbers.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

And that could change. Example? On the Defensive side, Nolan Arenado was said to be a defensive liability - even as he was moving from AA to AAA. Now he's putting on another showcase as he looks to take his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove at 3rd base.

I'd actually be interested to read about that. My impression (before Arenado made the major league club) was that he was a defense first player. I vaguely recall he was defensive player of the year in 2011 for the Cal League, which would have been high-A ball.

[johnsontravis@ymail.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

This thread is a joke right? 2 game statistics? Seriously?

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

This thread is a joke right? 2 game statistics? Seriously?

334 games and counting:

MiLB + MLB stats
334 G
1193 AB
115 HR
488 K

Beyond that, isn't the entire point of prospects to be amazed by small sample sizes? Gallo's numbers (on both ends) are unprecedented. The closest comparison appears to be Giancarlo Stanton.

Comparisons of small sample sizes:
MiLB K% and AB/HR rates
Joey Gallo (2012-2014/2015 so far; age 18-20/21): .406/.406 & 10.15/10.42
Giancarlo Stanton (2007-2010; age 17-20): .310 & 13.43
Adam Dunn (1998-2001; age 18-21): .224 & 19.17
Bryce Harper (2010-2011; age 17-18): .232 & 23.44
Kris Bryant (2013-2014; age 21-22): .318 & 4.37
Anthony Rizzo (2007-2012; age 17-22): .230 & 19.46
Corey Seager (2012-2015; age 18-21): .219 & 23.60
Miguel Cabrera (2000-2003; age 17-20): .187 & 51.41
Chris Davis (2006-2011; age 20-25): .272 & 15.31
Ryan Howard (2001-2005; age 21-25): .316 & 16.79

Gallo has age both on his side and working against him. If he's able to work on his recognition on breaking balls, he could turn out to be an even more powerful version of Stanton. However, he's also a year older than Stanton was at the same level (second time through AA), producing similar numbers.

Gallo can be great, but historically high K-rates have been 100 points lower than his K-rates to this point. That's a huge chasm to overcome.

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Gallo Watch

2015 MLB stats
11 G
40 AB
4 HR
16 K

MiLB + MLB stats
340 G
1217 AB
117 HR
494 K

[danesei@yahoo.com]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

I realize no one cares, but Gallo's K-rate now exceeds his SLG at the MLB level.

21 G
76 AB
5 HR
36 Ks
.224/.306/.461

[sox83cubs84]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

Gallo was sent down today when Josh Hamilton was activated.

Dave Miedema

[Wrigley2010]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

If anyone is having a "Joey Gallo Historic K Rate" game used fire sale please contact me. I have a soft spot for 21 year old power hitting lefties who have already had a taste of the Major Leagues.

[LarryWalkerFan]

Re: Joey Gallo's historic K-rate and BABiP

If anyone is having a "Joey Gallo Historic K Rate" game used fire sale please contact me. I have a soft spot for 21 year old power hitting lefties who have already had a taste of the Major Leagues.

153 PA
133 AB (1.75 AB per K)
76 K (49.67% of the time he steps up the plate, he strikes out at the MLB level)
.173 BA
.281 OBP
.368 SLG
.195 ISO

How do you feel about 23-yr-old strike out specialists... who aren't pitchers?

If Gallo is allowed to start on an every day basis in MLB, he might eventually figure out pitch recognition. Otherwise, he will absolutely destroy Mark Reynolds' reputation as the worst strikeout hitter of all time.

Career across all levels:

1869 AB
794 K
324 BB
159 HR

42.48% K-rate
8.5% HR-rate
17.3% BB-rate

Maybe Gallo will eventually figure out MLB pitching, but he likely won't improve until 2019, if ever. So, is a 25-yr-old Russell Branyan two years from now worth anything to an MLB team today?