Wise Investment or Victim of Hype??

[jbean023]

Mezz, Great collection and I think you will do well with the 2 HR balls. They are both still wild cards in my book, I think the safe guys in baseball currently are Trout, Arenado, Machado, and Bryant. I have to put my two cents in on this topic because I discuss this with a buddy of mine that only collects vintage and we go back and forth every time we get together.

This will be a pretty long discussion and rant so get the popcorn ready. Lets say Correa plays another 20 years so 22 seasons of baseball. He hits 250 HRs, I'm guessing maybe 15-20 hr balls will get authenticated with Correa getting maybe 5 as milestones. So you have a 1/25, in the card world nowadays and any collecting spectrum a 1/25 brings big money. I think hit,hr, and strikeout baseballs will hold value from all players. Mid to high end guys people want and low end guys there's not a lot to pick from. I collect Darwin Barney items and before joining the Jays I think Ive seen maybe 5-10 authenticated hit balls. The thing with collecting is a ton of people that are at these games have no idea that they can take home a piece of the game that they attend. Out of the 15 or so stadiums Ive attended only 2 teams have done a decent job with marketing. This should be broadcasted over the loud speaker, on the front of team websites, ect. I have fans ask me all the time where did I get this or that. "You mean to tell me you can buy a bat that so and so actually used in a game?"

This might be a little all over because I just write off the top of my head but its my .02. Now off topic a little, the thing my buddy and I get into about is he will be talking this and that about rarity. Of course vintage has its rarity but some are recycled jerseys, piece of paper authentication, removed nameplates, ect. In the 80s there are many teams with set 3 and 4 so that's not off the realm of some teams still today plus now the 5 special event jerseys and some throwbacks or day of week jerseys by some teams which if you look at the number of collectors in the 80s to current I'm sure the number would amaze everyone. But I read a collector complaining about the Braves, I have a few modern high end Braves players that Ive photomatched to multiple months of use. I see teams use jerseys for months all the time. Then you have your Mets, Cubs, ect that pull a bunch but the fan base numbers aren't decreasing in price. Lets say 30 Bryants a season for 20 seasons so ~600 jerseys with some going to cards. Wrigley seats 42,000 or so a game, how many would love to own one of those 600 jerseys? How many players wear the same jersey all season and do what Harper does? I have a ton of modern jerseys with heavy use. So lets say with home, road, alt Ryne Sandberg wore 12 -15 jerseys a season, Kris Bryant wears 30-40 jerseys a season. One in the 80s collecting wasn't what it is today the 20-30 yr old collecting range is through the roof today and only getting bigger. Teams have huge waiting lists for items. Plus in the 80s 100$ was what 300$ today? So you have to take that into consideration. Then I get to my point, how or when do you know these vintage items were used or worn? Very few are photomatched. Is it because JT said so? Or because the tagging is correct? Or because Ryno said he hit a HR with that bat and signed it that way? Because the traits match up? When was it used bp, spring training, off season, or the actual game? Crooks have been making fake vintage items for ever and now with vintage prices going through the roof, how many are getting added currently? How hard would it be to buy all the correct tagging off a no name player jersey and make a fake vintage jersey? Or turn an issued jersey or bat into a gamer? Most of the time you have no clue, you're hoping that 84 mvp season bat was used for 20 hits that season but you'll never know. All the fakes out there in vintage is through the roof to where modern items the mlb hologram, getty, mlb tv, ect has taken care of that. The mlb hologram has taken 99% of all that out of consideration and brought collectors out the wazoo to the hobby. What makes and item special to me personally is a game I was at, a player I watch, not a guy that I read a book about. Do I still like those items, of course but an Ernie Banks bat doesn't hold the same meaning to me that an Anthony Rizzo bat does that he cracked at a game I was at. Also now jerseys are unwashed for some teams which make great display pieces. Modern items are setting crazy record numbers in collecting. If the Cubs make it to the World Series I wouldn't be surprised if you see a couple 6 figure bids. Each day a new collector enters the hobby and wants items or things that he/she watches/sees. Will they add a vintage item or 2 in their collection sure but the modern item will stay strong for a long time. I used to be on the other side of the fence about this as well but the more and more games I attend and see these young kids fork over 500-1K for an item, I don't think the modern day item is going anywhere soon. Before it was you shared a moment with your Dad on Father's Day and kept the ticket stub and took a photo but now you can take home 1 of the 9 starters jerseys as a moment of your history, a bat, or a baseball from a play you watched. I want to look at my collection when I'm 60 and see a path of my hobby and life history to tell a story from games I was at, watched, or listened to that I can discuss with facts and share moments of each, not games that weren't even shown on tv or are in black and white that I can only read about and know nothing about. I get collecting vintage for rarity, value, and history of baseball but I personally collect for the history of baseball from the years it had an impact on my life. What can you tell me about your 1910 Tris Speaker bat? Everything that I can get in a book or off Wikipedia or by reading your LOA, or that its rare and worth a ton of money? I get all that but let me tell you the story of a Bryce Harper HR bat from a game I was at, drove cross country, show you some photos of this item in use and tell you the history behind it.

Just my .02

[Juicyfruit66]

Just like many of you I'm driven by sentiment and not profit, 2004 was the last year my favorite team the expos were in existence. My collection is based on all the players I grew up watching, to me its all about my memories and links to my dad and friends I went to games with. The items you mention having a connection with end up being finite due to you having been at the same event, kind of like catching a game used ball yourself. My comparaison to the card industry is in regards to the massive over production of minimally used game used gear for profit compared to items that were worn out and given away. As forr the jeter, that would be like a card company printing a gold bar, I'd take it knowing how rare it actually was. So the 2004 cuttoff isn't by choice but imhappy its there cause hobby wasn't inundated yet.

[cjmezz]

All valid points and a good discussion.
I only collect base hit baseballs. To me they are the most significant part of the game. They were pitched and hit in order for teams to win or lose. A players jersey, helmet, wrist band, etc has no game significance to the outcome, unlike a ball. I see people time after time on this forum saying they don't care for actual balls, they don't know why people collect them, etc...to each their own, but to me as far as the actual game, it's doesn't get more basis the the ball itself.
I collect to enjoy, and have pieces of history, etc..not to sell or profit. Obviously when Im dead and gone I'd like to think my "hobby" will have value for my daughters to enjoy or sell and benefit their lives. I've enjoyed the discussion and input so far!

[GreatWhite]

i think the value comes in if your collecting for your love of the game, or trying to collect to resell. I'm not a big fan of vintage unless its a certain player, but with the new modern jerseys are pretty cool because they represent the times