State of the Vintage Market

[vintagesportscollector]

State of the Vintage Market

OK All. Throwing this out there to get your thoughts. Let me start by saying my observations are based around the items I have an interest in - this includes pre 1940s sports antiques like equipment and other memorabilia display items.

It seems to me that the amount of quality vintage items out there for sale has dramatically tailed off in the past 6 months. Is supply really starting to dry up that much? Theoretically it should be no surprise that supply will eventually shrink up. As we know vintage items are a fixed supply - you can’t create more antiques like you can the new shiny crap this is produced in volumes everyday. Whatever is out there is it!! Demand on the other hand, it would seem, should only increase. As time goes by more and more people should become interested in acquiring vintage items, while supply is only getting smaller. Collectors are spending increasing amounts on quality items, and scarce items are being horded into collections. One can expect that these quality items will become more and more scarce, but are we seeing a dramatic realization of that now?? Mind you it’s not like I can ever dream of affording most of these quality items, but I do like to see them available on ebay, Mastro, REA and other acutions so I can gawk and one day hope to own.

10 years ago eBay really started to take off. This opened up the flood gates for the supply of vintage items as tons and tons of items hit the market and became available to collectors. This great ease of availability also fueled greater demand. For years now it has seemed like supply would never end. But recently it seems like the floods have dramatically receded and the pool of quality items has shrunk dramatically. We knew it could not last forever, as there is just so much supply out there, but the shrinkage now appears dramatic.

Since October ebay has dried up in my opinion. Most recent major auctions have been disappointing. The majority of items you see now are ‘retreads’ that we have seen sold before. Collectors are buying up the quality items and they are not likely to let them go for a long time, if ever. There are certainly exceptions and differences, depending on what you collect. Quality Leather Football helmets, for example, are pretty common and numerous on the market, but their prices are exceptionally high as demand is huge for them. Soon their micro-market will dry up too, as has the macro-market, and with time it will be very very hard to find a quality vintage football helmet.

So what does this hold for the collector that is just starting out? Have they missed the boat? One could argue yes. There are a lot of common items out there, but if they are interested in quality scarcer items the forecast is that they will be harder and harder to find and will cost a lot to obtain.

We have seen so much change in the past 10 years. What does the next 10 years hold? What will the market be like 10 years from now? Will it be next to impossible to obtain quality items?

What are your thoughts?

-Joe

[b.heagy]

I agree that the vintage memorabilia market has dried up for the time being. Alot of the great stuff has been hoarded away into private collections which is understandable. When I talk to some of the veterans in the sports field in my area I am stunned at the fact that they would turn down Ty Cobb decal bats for $16 because they were Plentiful in the 70's or Nodders for $10 (wish i was around then). Back then the GREAT stuff was hitting the market in volume. Stuff was coming out of the attics left and right from everywhere, tour of japan uniforms, trophy's, all the great equipment was around. I collect a little bit of everything, Uniform, Bats, Gloves, Programs.... I like the early stuff. Pretty much the same as you Joe. The 19th century stuff is my favorite.

I am into the Antique crowd week in and week out. From my observations the decline in quality sports memorabilia is apparent. However, times are changing and the Antiques business is in a bit of a dry spell. People need money for numerous reasons gas, bills, rent, etc..

I see it every weekend. People bringing items from their collections because they need the money. Better items show up week in and week out. If your in the right position, the time to buy is now. Worry about selling later, if at all (gotta recoup somehow though ) . I hate to see someone selling cherished items to pay the bills but from what I see that is what is happening. It's tough to see someone down on their luck like that. Those that have the great stuff will just remain strong on what they ask for and rightfully so. Yes we will see it. It will come down to how much? Will the next generation have an interest in the same things we do? Everything runs in cycles. It will come back. After all we are just the caretakers of the items we love.

[slidekellyslide]

I have not noticed the market drying up for equipment...I don't look as often as I used to, but I notice some very high quality gloves on ebay recently and currently. It was just about 5 months ago that we saw about 10-15 unbelievable pennants hit ebay that were new to the hobby, and about 2 months ago where a former minor leaguer and college player's estate hit ebay with a lot of quality items from trophies to uniforms to Texas League baseballs still with the boxes. There was a bat collector who liquidated his collection on ebay last year or early this year that contained some very nice 19th century models including a Victor Ring bat which I had never seen before. I also saw the first Victor League baseball on ebay in at least 3 years. A lot of decal bats on ebay in the last few months too.

As far as the major auction houses go - I do see a lot of retread stuff, and I also see many items that I passed up on ebay going for 3-4 times in the house auctions.

Unfortunately for me I am going on at least 6 months now without a single Lincoln minor league item appearing on ebay, but the estate auction season is heating up with the nicer weather and I usually find some very nice items at least a few times every summer.

[vintagesportscollector]

There are certainly some notable examples of quality items, both recent and current. Dan, I recall too those examples you cited, and others, but from what I have been watching the decline is apparent. My observation is more around the trend. I wonder if it’s just a cyclical thing or if it is a gradual decline or will it continue to accelerate. I think it’s to be expected and I wonder what the market will be like 1, 5 or 10 years out. “The day will come” so to speak, and I wonder if that day is starting to dawn.

[slidekellyslide]

I think the market may go through periods of decline, and we may be seeing one now...you follow much closer than I do....But there will always be new finds out there....lots of attics and lots of players families with this stuff who have never sold. Deacon White's family just sold off a bunch of his stuff that was all new and fresh to the market and that included at least 10 trophy balls, 2 or 3 bats and a bunch of cabinet photos. No one I have talked to about it knew that it existed before Hunt's auctioned it off. Even you just picked up a ring bat not long ago at an estate auction - that had to be new to market.

We should also remember that the memorabilia market is relatively new as the market for equipment was very small pre 1990 - it is huge now and we will see major collectors selling off collections I believe in the near future. On the card side there are three major collectors liquidating in the current Mastro and REA - we just haven't seen anything like that on the memorabilia side yet, but we will.

[aaron1050]

I was literally thinking the exact same thing yesterday after viewing Leland's paltry new spring auction (which seemed to reflect the recent Mastro and REA offerings as being extremely light high-end vintage sports memorabilia).

There just doesn't seem to be the same level of quality items available that there were even a couple years ago. Right now there seems to be the smallest selection of quality memorabilia available since I started collecting in 2001.

I wonder if so much material has been bought up by memorabilia collectors (who unlike card collectors, don't turn over their items as often or ever) or if the major auction houses are just focusing more and more on the card business (cards are easier to handle, market and ship). It's probably a combination of the two.

But it is disappointing to see happen. It takes a lot of the fun out when you don't see your enthusiasm for a collecting field reflected by availability in the marketplace.

[mjkm90]

While I do see quite a few nice pieces hitting ebay, I agree that the (accessible) supply of quality vintage material is well short of the demand. This is due to many factors in my opinion. I'm going to ramble here so bear with me ok?

First, there was a mass exodus from the card craze of the 80s and early 90s that left collectors looking for a new fix. Memorabilia filled the void and then some for me, many of you, and hundreds or thousands of others. Boom! Instant demand where it hadn't existed (relatively speaking). Suddenly we were all out beating the bushes including ebay. As we went along, we were educating dealers pickers and other collectors regarding the demand for and potential value of these items. Ebay was then flooded with quality items that were hungrily scooped up by collectors.

Auction houses usually get consignments from collectors, dealers, people in the anitque business etc. They don't usually get them from grandma, grandpa, and aunt Bessie. Collectors who buy from the big houses tend to keep their winnings in their collection for a long long time. Therefore we see the same pieces over and over and a general reduction in the number of memorabilia consignements (not a reduction in memorabilia that exists).

We all know the "stuff" we love (pennants, pin backs, trophies, quality bats and gloves etc.) were never produced in a volume comparable to cards. That combined with the fact these items were not intended to be collectibles, meant they were used until they fell apart, thrown away as old worthless rubbish, or lost in basements and attics. As I drive around I always wonder how many old barns have a mushroom bat in the corner, how many old homes have pinbacks, pennants, trophies, and programs stuck in cabinets and chests in the attic.

That, ladies and gentlemen is the potential good news. There has to be literaly TONS of fantastic items in homes across the country. Go ask a senior citizen or anyone over 40 if they think there is much value to old baseball stuff other than cards. Most will tell you no. Ask them what thay think a really old baseball glove or a baseball bat from the 30s is worth. Only memorabilia dealers and us know this stuff has value. Ask 100 people what Mastro, REA, or Hunts specialize in and I really doubt any will know what the hell you are talking about. Most antique dealers are clueless about vintage memorabilia value. They know it has some value, but are clueless for the most part. What I'm trying to say is that the stuff we love is out there, it just hasn't hit the market yet. It will over time. It will show up in estate sales, garage sales, and public auctions. It's just going to take a lot of digging, persistence, and luck to find it.

[slidekellyslide]

Good points Mike....most of my really good finds were all at estate or garage sales when it comes to bats and gloves. Even picked up a Victor bat at an antique show for $5. People just don't know that there are people out here collecting that kind of stuff. I still think that we are seeing quality items all the time...maybe not with the frequency as in the recent past, but I just got my Heritage catalog today and they have an 1890s Notre Dame Football uniform!!!! They also have a c1890s quilted chest protector.

[vintagesportscollector]

All Good points. Thanks all for your thoughts. I think the key is to get a good shovel and keep "digging"!!

Dan- That Notre Dame football uniform lot is increbible. One of the nicest lots I have seen. Heritage does consistenly have some "Wow!" items. And they frequenly have some great early GU baseball uniforms/jerseys which I enjoy viewing.

On an aside I am bugged yet agan by what is a pet peeve of mine...when an auction/seller puts a date in a title that can't possibly be true. This ND uniform is NOT from the 1890s. Even the description says "it was the style worn for the 1903 season." The description also states "very possibly (used) in that historic campaign (1903)". But that is most likely not true. The Spalding tags in the vest and pants date it to 1907 - 1909. The description states the uniform style was used from 1903 - 1909, so that's consistent as the uniform was most likely used during the latter part of the period, but certainly not 1890s and not during the 1903 season. The 1903 date is a stretch, and although not very plausible, I can let that go. The 1890s date, on the other hand, is just deceitful IMO.

[slidekellyslide]

You should contact them Joe with your information....It would be interesting to see if they amend the description.