ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

LOL.

TOO FUNNY joelsabi!!!

The point in running the ball right up to the bid prior to taking it over the limit is two-fold:

-It means on the very next bid, with days to go (while it was there), the ball sells.

-And, having "activity" on the ball leaves the impression there is serious interest in it, even if there may not be so much. Sometimes, that may be all it takes to get that one extra bid from a potential bidder who may NOT be able to bid anymore, so he will make that ONE last desperation bid that ends up winning the ball.

Wouldn't it SUCK for the winner if the only legitimate bids on the ball was maybe, let's say, the first three, and the rest were shills to get it to the point of making Alex Rodriguez's desired reserve on one potential last bid? That means, in reality, the winning bidder just paid an "A-Rod reserve" premium to win it, NOT an honest market-made price determined by a legit auction process.

We'll never know.

That said, I have no idea which scenario is correct. It may very well be that there are 8 different bidders and that they are positioned to light this rocket once the "initial" bids end, and the after hours bids are made. That's where the rubber meets the road anyways.

I would say if this ball only receives ONE more bid, and that bid wins it AND places it over the reserve, then my opinion may have been right on. But my gut tells me this ball goes substantially higher, maybe even breaking the $100,000 level......maybe.

Definately going to be fun to watch.

Buster

do you think it would fetch more if it was a live auction? at least you would know who your competition was.

[allstarsplus]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

OK!!!

Just checked.......now 9 bids....$53,600......RESERVE NOT MET!

Now I'm thinking it a $100,000 reserve.

WOW.


Buster

Do you think they are reading this thread? We are helping provide advertising! LOL

Could just be Steve pushing it closer to $85,000!

Go Suicide_Squeeze!!!!!

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

OK!!!

Just checked.......now 9 bids....$53,600......RESERVE NOT MET!

Now I'm thinking it a $100,000 reserve.

WOW.


Buster

Update

25000 Steve
27500 SCP transparant automated bid
30250 Madonna
33275 SCP transparant automated bid
36603 Madonna
40263 SCP transparant automated bid
44289 Madonna
48718 SCP transparant automated bid
53590 Madonna

[Buster]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

OK!!!

Just checked.......now 9 bids....$53,600......RESERVE NOT MET!

Now I'm thinking it a $100,000 reserve.

WOW.


Buster

[Buster]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Good Guesses.

2500 Bidder 1
27500 SCP transparant automated bid
30250 Bidder 2
33275 SCP transparant automated bid
36603 Bidder3
40263 SCP transparant automated bid
44289 Bidder 4
48718 SCP transparant automated bid
53590 ?


OR

2500 Steve
27500 SCP transparant automated bid
30250 Madonna
33275 SCP transparant automated bid
36603 Madonna
40263 SCP transparant automated bid
44289 Madonna
48718 SCP transparant automated bid
53590 ?

LOL.

TOO FUNNY joelsabi!!!

The point in running the ball right up to the bid prior to taking it over the limit is two-fold:

-It means on the very next bid, with days to go (while it was there), the ball sells.

-And, having "activity" on the ball leaves the impression there is serious interest in it, even if there may not be so much. Sometimes, that may be all it takes to get that one extra bid from a potential bidder who may NOT be able to bid anymore, so he will make that ONE last desperation bid that ends up winning the ball.

Wouldn't it SUCK for the winner if the only legitimate bids on the ball was maybe, let's say, the first three, and the rest were shills to get it to the point of making Alex Rodriguez's desired reserve on one potential last bid? That means, in reality, the winning bidder just paid an "A-Rod reserve" premium to win it, NOT an honest market-made price determined by a legit auction process.

We'll never know.

That said, I have no idea which scenario is correct. It may very well be that there are 8 different bidders and that they are positioned to light this rocket once the "initial" bids end, and the after hours bids are made. That's where the rubber meets the road anyways.

I would say if this ball only receives ONE more bid, and that bid wins it AND places it over the reserve, then my opinion may have been right on. But my gut tells me this ball goes substantially higher, maybe even breaking the $100,000 level......maybe.

Definately going to be fun to watch.

Buster

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

If I had to guess, I think there are probably 2 to 4 serious bidders already in.

Good Guesses.

2500 Bidder 1
27500 SCP transparant automated bid
30250 Bidder 2
33275 SCP transparant automated bid
36603 Bidder3
40263 SCP transparant automated bid
44289 Bidder 4
48718 SCP transparant automated bid
53590 ?


OR

2500 Steve
27500 SCP transparant automated bid
30250 Madonna
33275 SCP transparant automated bid
36603 Madonna
40263 SCP transparant automated bid
44289 Madonna
48718 SCP transparant automated bid
53590 ?

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

If I had to guess, I think there are probably 2 to 4 serious bidders already in. As you know with any auction, you need 2 bidders that are highly motivated with the right assets for his type of auction.

Steve wouldn't tell me his ceiling however I think this is sure to go higher in the last few moments of the auction and will be exciting to see how high it will go!

Steve is a seasoned bidder. He's not sharing info even with his best of buddies.

[allstarsplus]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

It is very possible. But why would you want to increase the bid amount prior to the extended bidding period? If you have an idea of what the reserve may be, what your bidding maximum and what it may go for, it's better to save all your energy for the knock out punch during the extended bidding period.

Another possibilty would be a curious bidder really wanting to know the reserve price prior to the extended period.

The more likely possibilty is that SCP has put in some bid(s) as Buster alluded to, which is bidding UP TO the reserve on behalf of the Consigner. Hence, Buster's thoughts that the next bid will go over the the reserve and cannot be made by SCP.

If I had to guess, I think there are probably 2 to 4 serious bidders already in. As you know with any auction, you need 2 bidders that are highly motivated with the right assets for his type of auction.

Steve wouldn't tell me his ceiling however I think this is sure to go higher in the last few moments of the auction and will be exciting to see how high it will go!

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Also, if I am reading the rules properly, the 8 bids don't have to be 8 different distinct bidders. Do you agree?

Current Bidding (Reserve Not Met)
Minimum Bid: $25,000
Current Bid: $48,721
Number of Bids: 8

-

It is very possible. But why would you want to increase the bid amount prior to the extended bidding period? If you have an idea of what the reserve may be, what your bidding maximum and what it may go for, it's better to save all your energy for the knock out punch during the extended bidding period.

Another possibilty would be a curious bidder really wanting to know the reserve price prior to the extended period.

The more likely possibilty is that SCP has put in some bid(s) as Buster alluded to, which is bidding UP TO the reserve on behalf of the Consigner. Hence, Buster's thoughts that the next bid will go over the the reserve and cannot be made by SCP.

MINIMUM BIDS

Each lot in the auction has a Minimum Bid (designated in the printed catalogue and online as “MB”). Some lots in the sale also have a reserve price. A reserve price is the confidential minimum amount below which the consignor of the lot will not sell the property. Therefore an amount equal to or in excess of the reserve must be bid on a lot in order for a successful bid to be accepted on that lot. We may implement such reserve by bidding on behalf of the Consignor and may bid up to the amount of the reserve, by placing successive or consecutive bids for a lot, or bids in response to other bidders. In instances where we have an interest in the lot other than our commission, we may bid up to the reserve to protect such interest. Most lots in the sale do not have a reserve. Unless an item is withdrawn from the sale, for all items in the sale without reserves, the lots will be sold to the highest bidder at or above the Minimum Bid price or any amount higher than the Minimum Bids

[allstarsplus]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

For all you 500th HR club collectors, there are three days left on the auction for Alex Rodriguez's 500th HR baseball and its at $48,721.

http://www.scpauctionsite.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=552

Wow guys, thanks for pointing out the "Reserve Not Met". I didn't notice it before.

Also, if I am reading the rules properly, the 8 bids don't have to be 8 different distinct bidders. Do you agree?

Current Bidding (Reserve Not Met)
Minimum Bid: $25,000
Current Bid: $48,721
Number of Bids: 8

-

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Not sure how they determine the reserve, if the auctioneers have a set percentage from the minimum bid to the reserve bid. There is one item with a minimum bid of $10K and has a current bid of $34529 and has not hit the reserve. I figure the factor is less than 3.4 since this item has a higher minimum bid so you could be right. If all the minbid to reserve ratios are proportional that means at least a $78469 to hit the reserve.

after looking at other auction bid in progress, the ratio of minimum bid to reserve are not proportional for all items.

I noticed two items with minimum bids of $10K with current bids of $21,430 each. One item has met the reserve and one item has not met the reserve.

I like Buster's simple explanation of reserves. Do not think there is a formula for determining the minimum bid if you know the reserve. The minimum bid is as low as the auction house can convince the seller to go and each seller is different.

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Personally, I think they should start the ball at the reserve, and be done with the games these auction houses play.

Put it on the table with a price, and let it happen.

Hope that helps.

Buster

Buster,

I would agree. Why risk allienating your best customers who are bidding for this item. If it does not sell, you have wasted everyone's time.

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Joel,

Minimum bids are usually set solely by the auction house. On some major items, that "amount" is most likely discussed with the consigner prior to the start of the auction.

But very simply, any reserve amount is set by the consigner, period. If the auction house had any issue with that, they might try to talk the seller (consigner) down a bit on the reserve, but make no mistake, it's the seller's call. If the auction house just flat out refuses to go along with it (which I can't believe happens very often at all), the seller simply can take his "goods" to another auction house that will "honor" that desired reserve.

So, even If the opening bid on the Alex Rodriguez 500th home run ball is $25,000.00, it may not be truly available to any buyer until it surpasses the $50,000 (or whatever the reserve amount is) mark. It that fair? Yes. Why? Because if that's the minimum the seller will take for it, then if anyone wants to buy it, they'll have to pay it. Period. The lower "opening bid" is just to attract a few major bidders with a low enticement, so to speak. Personally, I think they should start the ball at the reserve, and be done with the games these auction houses play.

Put it on the table with a price, and let it happen.

Hope that helps.

Buster

Buster,

your reasoning make more sense than my thoughts on minimum bid-reserve ratios.

interesting enough, the auction will go over the $10K mark for commission on the next bid.

[joelsabi]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Not sure how they determine the reserve, if the auctioneers have a set percentage from the minimum bid to the reserve bid. There is one item with a minimum bid of $10K and has a current bid of $34529 and has not hit the reserve. I figure the factor is less than 3.4 since this item has a higher minimum bid so you could be right. If all the minbid to reserve ratios are proportional that means at least a $78469 to hit the reserve.

opps. at least $85K IF all ratios are proportional. $25K times 3.4 is $85K. And the factor could be even larger since the reserve wasnt meet yet for the $10K minimum bid item.

[Buster]

Re: ARod's 500th HR ball going to Auction

Joel,

Minimum bids are usually set solely by the auction house. On some major items, that "amount" is most likely discussed with the consigner prior to the start of the auction.

But very simply, any reserve amount is set by the consigner, period. If the auction house had any issue with that, they might try to talk the seller (consigner) down a bit on the reserve, but make no mistake, it's the seller's call. If the auction house just flat out refuses to go along with it (which I can't believe happens very often at all), the seller simply can take his "goods" to another auction house that will "honor" that desired reserve.

So, even If the opening bid on the Alex Rodriguez 500th home run ball is $25,000.00, it may not be truly available to any buyer until it surpasses the $50,000 (or whatever the reserve amount is) mark. It that fair? Yes. Why? Because if that's the minimum the seller will take for it, then if anyone wants to buy it, they'll have to pay it. Period. The lower "opening bid" is just to attract a few major bidders with a low enticement, so to speak. Personally, I think they should start the ball at the reserve, and be done with the games these auction houses play.

Put it on the table with a price, and let it happen.

Hope that helps.

Buster