Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

[Mark17]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

I think the analogy of GU memorabilia to baseball cards does have some merit. Certainly, the more game used jerseys released to the public, the more it drives down any perceived value. But there is one very big difference I think some of you may not have taken into account, and that is the intrinsic value of the GU item.

Good points, and I'll add another-- modern day GU stuff often comes with impeccable (MLB, team, Steiner, etc.) provenance. Having said that, I think modern GU stuff is really flooding the market, and will continue to do so.

Take your example of a GU jersey that cost $100 to manufacture. Depending on the player, the GU aspects might add $100 to $2,000 or more onto the price of it. What you now have to consider is this: What is the potential downside to all of that cost? The fact the jersey cost $100 to manufacture isn't necessarily a guaranteed floor... I've seen gamers offered in this forum for less than that amount. At least if you buy a rookie card for $5.00, that's the max you can lose.

The only thing resembling "intrinsic" value with a GU jersey is the fact that in a pinch, it could serve as clothing. Other than that, it's a wall display piece that may or may not have much demand down the line.

Going back to the card analogy, I remember when, after the 1987 Topps Bo Jacksons and Joyners and Cansecos and McGwires and Will Clarks brought over a dollar apiece in early 1987, Mike Greenwell cards rose to $2.00 each for awhile, then fell way off. Other cards rose and fell in that set: Kevin Mitchell, Andres Galarraga, Palmeiro, B.J. Surhoff, Devon White, Bobby Thigpen, and many others.

I don't collect modern GU stuff, but I'm curious... take a guy like Shannon Stewart. Would his Twins jersey from a few years ago sell for as much today as when it was in a pro shop back then? Or Twins shirts of Koskie, or Marty Cordova? These were all popular Twins in their day, but they played on mostly losing teams and are now nearly forgotten. If there are, say, 20 GU Koskie jerseys from each of the approximately 8 seasons he played in the majors, are there really 160 people out there who will pay over $100 to have one of his gamers hanging on their wall?

In the late 1980s, people thought they were "investing" in the players, sort of like buying stock in their success. Fans maybe didn't have an opinion how some company's performance was trending, but all of us like to think we can spot talent in each season's rookie crop. So, why buy 100 shares of a company (and how boring) when you can plunk down $75.00 and get a 500-count box of Mike Aldrete rookies, for example.

Problem was, most people didn't stop to think it through... Everyone assumed they could keep selling to other "investors" in quantity, BUT... what would the ultimate end-game look like? What purpose did it serve to have 500 identical cards of some player? Was the idea that, eventually, they would find 500 people who each wanted one of those cards, and would it be economically feasible to advertise and sell them like that?

With GU it's the same principle. Sure there are fewer jerseys than 1987 Topps cards, by far. But with the entry point being about $100 minimum, for a common, that reduces the number of potential collectors significantly. With cards, a parent could buy a Bo Jackson rookie card for a couple dollars as a Christmas stocking-stuffer. With GU jerseys, most kids can't even join the hobby unless it's to watch Dad collect stuff.

[stlbats]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

Even if someone doesn't collect for the value or worth of the items, no one really wants "worthless stuff". Yes I collect for the love of it, but I dont want to buy a fairly expensive item knowing that it is going to become less valuable. You never know when you might need to sell something. It is never good if something bottoms out. Look at Starting Lineup figures. They were huge and worth top dollar 10-15 years ago. Now you literally can not give them away. If GU items become worthless, a lot less people will want them anyway. Can you imagine if I couldnt even give away my photomatched Pujols bat?? That is scary.

Jason
stlbats@bellsouth.net

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

Heck id be proud of that sabo collection. He pimped the two inch glasses before they were cool. Id take a will clark g/u bat over any of his baseball cards anyday. Heck id take a geno petralli g/u bat over one of his cards any day. Its all in what you like. If the market tanks on g/u like it did on the 80-90's baseball cards it only means theree will be more stuff for us collectors at rock bottum prices.

[mdube16]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

Its all about collecting what you love, not what its worth. Take a look at this collection. They are all "worthless" right?

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=639951&highlight_key=y&keyword1=sabo

[beavisrules]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

I think the analogy of GU memorabilia to baseball cards does have some merit. Certainly, the more game used jerseys released to the public, the more it drives down any perceived value. But there is one very big difference I think some of you may not have taken into account, and that is the intrinsic value of the GU item. For example, a baseball card modern day common is a worthless piece of cardboard. Took minimal amounts of money to create given the mass production of them. Ok, now take a Notre Dame game worn jersey - took more than pennies for Notre Dame to purchase the jersey in the first place, correct? So the actual jersey did require tangible money to produce and to purchase by the university. Now, let's say the average fan has a spot on his office wall that he wants to hang a jersey. He is not a game used collector per se, but just wants a jersey of his team, and wants a nice looking one, not a $20 replica. His options? Buy a retail authentic jersey from ebay or the bookstore for around $100-200, or buy a real game used one for a bit more. Which do you think he will go for if financial resources are not exceptionally tight? Right, the game used. THAT's one big difference between game used and baseball cards that can not be discounted, and that is why even modern game used jerseys will likely always retain value to some degree.

[karamaxjoe]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

"Anyway, my conclusion is that vintage GU is and always will be a good investment because it was not over-produced in the first place, and much of that stuff has been lost to time."

"I agree, collect what you like. But, be smart, no sense in spending top dollar for stuff that will inevitably come down in price."

Lot's of great analogies and quotes in that post. I fully agree with you and basically follow the first quote in my collecting world. I've always found acquiring a rare item is much more rewarding than something everyone else has. I wouldn't spend top dollar on nearly anything from the past 30 years and the past 10 years has seen a period of mass produced game used memorabilia flood the market. I doubt that trend will stop for a while since all the teams have found a way to make an extra buck on items they used to throw in the trash. The one thing we don't know yet is if the game used stuff from this era will hold its value. For the sake of most of the members on this board, I hope it does. You really have to be collecting for the love of the hobby to buy anything from the past 10 years.

[Mark17]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

I think the GU market and what happened with baseball cards is a great analogy. When Topps and the other companies realized, in the mid-1980s, that they were basically able to print money, they kept the presses running full-time and cranked out tens of thousands of vending cases (12,000 cards per) and rack/wax cases, and then, "cut" cases, which were bulk cases of cards from certain sheets.

The rookie crop in 1987 was so strong, I heard rumors Topps was printing 1987 cards well into 1988. I don't know if that was true, but I was having no problem getting 1987 cut cases in 1988-1989. I don't blame Topps one bit, when they could convert maybe $20 of cheap paperboard, ink, and some labor into cases that sold for over $100 apiece and virtually unlimited demand, why not?

In 1985, Dwight Gooden's rookie card started off at $2.00. I was a full-time dealer then and my initial break was 300 vending cases, so I had and sold about 4500 Gooden cards at about that price. Later in the year I decided to buy some more vending cases to stash away for a few years, but when Gooden kept winning games (he went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA that year,) I was basically forced to break them up, since I could sell that one card for $5.00 all day long, in 100-card lots. That meant the other 11,985 cards in each case were now half-price to me.

Imagine, a small stack of 100 mass-produced pieces of cheap cardboard, anything but "rare", with a picture of a guy's face on it, selling for $500. And as I was selling them, the presses kept on making more.

It's the same general thing now with GU, as I see it. No, they don't make millions of game jerseys and bats, but they do make and use many more than would be necessary. Remember the flannel days, when a player would typically have Set 1 and Set 2, home and road? 4-6 jerseys is all a player really needs each season.

Anyway, to complete the analogy, the speculation in the recent, mass-produced cards went up like a rocket ship, then plummeted back down, but the vintage stuff has remained strong, and that stuff has really increased in value over the years. I remember being at a show in CA, trading 1987 Topps Canseco and Joyner cards for 1960s commons (one Canseco/Joyner for 2 vintage commons) and looking back, I was trading junk worth pennies today (if there are even any buyers for 100-card lots of 1987 Topps Canseco or Joyner anymore) for cards that do have a legitimate scarcity factor, and sustaining value.

Anyway, my conclusion is that vintage GU is and always will be a good investment because it was not over-produced in the first place, and much of that stuff has been lost to time. I don't think there is a definite line, but to me, "vintage" in bats means pre-1977 and in jerseys it means flannel (pre- 1972, about.) Not saying there was mass over-production in the late 1970s, just saying that stuff approaching 50 years old is what I consider a solid collectible/investment.

I agree, collect what you like. But, be smart, no sense in spending top dollar for stuff that will inevitably come down in price; if that's what you want to collect, fine, but wait and buy later. If you're going after items that are truly scarce, still buy smart, but you can do so with a lot more confidence.

As always, just my opinion.

[yankees506]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

I dont think you can compare gu and cards. You can make a million exact replicas of cardboard cards but you cannot make a million gu items. Not to say that the hobby has not been watered down by all the gu stuff out there but thats really out of the collectors hands. Honestly the "watering down" of the market has made me be able to acquire items i would have never thought id be able to own. I don't buy to sell, all the items i buy i know i will probably never get rid of. I dont spend big bucks on anything but "holy grail" type items anymore. It just seems as if "premium" items today wont be "premium" in a year or so, its sad but true. You mean to tell me an Albert Pujols bat is worth thousands of dollars? I think only a fool would spend his money that way, a piece of lumber is the same to me, granted the reason we buy things is because they where used by our favorite ball players but spending mortgage money on a bat seems crazy by any stretch of the word.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

The rangers probably have 300 jerseys in their team store. All stuff they probably wont ever sell at the prices they are asking. It might change if they make a good run this year, but there arent many collectors of rangers stuff. I can get bats and jerseys any day of the week, but gloves helmets and cleats are a different story.

If they don't sell it what sweat off their brow? Unlike dealers they don't need to sell stuff to survive. Not that long ago a bat broke it went in the trash. Now it is pure greed on the part of the teams. If they win it all or even make the series or start doing well in the ALCS watch the prices rise and people lineup to buy it. I am a Jets fan and as a whole there are not that many of us who collect when compared to Big Blue and the Yanks. Last year JO had a glut of Jets jerseys on their site pretty much everyone not named Revis or Sanchez was available in multiples late in the year. Then Jets make their playoff run and right after they upset the Chargers wham JO increased the prices and stuff flew off the shelf in the week in between games. They didn't even make the Super Bowl just getting to AFC Championship Game was enough to create a run. The reason for the run was the investors came out thinking ok if they win Super Bowl I can flip this stuff for a huge profit and regular folk jumped on the bandwagon which happens to teams like that who have not won in decades. Same thing will happen to Rangers stuff.

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

The rangers probably have 300 jerseys in their team store. All stuff they probably wont ever sell at the prices they are asking. It might change if they make a good run this year, but there arent many collectors of rangers stuff. I can get bats and jerseys any day of the week, but gloves helmets and cleats are a different story.

[AWA85]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

It got to the point where everywhere I looked there was a game used or autographed item.

Is there something wrong with this?

I am now at the point where many of the items in my collection are items I would not want to part with. Occasionally, I see something that I would want to trade/buy as an upgrade but for the most part am happy with what I have. The space for displaying is becoming an issue. With my walls covered in my "Man Room" there really is not much room for additional jerseys. I hate buying a game used piece and just have it hanging in my closet, so not really sure how I will approach this in the future. Any tips on displaying items?

As for mentioned earlier about the younger generation not getting into the collecting type of mind, I am not sure I agree. I am constantly surprised how many mid twenty collectors there are just in the Reds focus like myself, and even more surprised by some of the others posting on the board that are in their early teens. Probably stating the obvious but the economy is what is hurting the hobby right now. For a collector who is looking to purchase, it is a nice time to buy. I recently saw a jersey I was after and the guy stated he would end the auction for $650, but with how bidding has been going I figured I had a shot at the jersey for under $300 if I wait it out.

Hopefully the future will get turned around, but it will be interesting to see what the market is like with items pumped into at high rates. The one advantage I see to this is more and more items coming from players, agents, and big companies. Slowly see the diminish of "got it from a friend of the player".

[legaleagle92481]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

- Totally 100% agree with you. The oversupply is getting worse and worse, I mean if you look at the Steiner site there are SO MANY items on there that they will NEVER be able to sell. I started a post on this a few months back, and it seems like this topic is getting so much more traction that its actually scary that this can be happening to our beloved hobby..

- Even from a collecting standpoint that has to be a point where you stop. For example, in my basement/man cave I am literally running out of room and although there are many items out there that I would want, I cannot but them because I have no space. Anyone else have this issue?

It is part of the reason I sold most of my stuff. I had 30 plus bats, like 20 jerseys, then autographed stuff probably 60 baseballs, maybe 40 full size basketballs, 20 plus football mini helmets, then maybe 20 checks and photos. Then there is the celeb autograph collection which has like 30 checks, a lot of playbills and hardcover books. It got to the point where everywhere I looked there was a game used or autographed item.

[Neal]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

- Totally 100% agree with you. The oversupply is getting worse and worse, I mean if you look at the Steiner site there are SO MANY items on there that they will NEVER be able to sell. I started a post on this a few months back, and it seems like this topic is getting so much more traction that its actually scary that this can be happening to our beloved hobby..

- Even from a collecting standpoint that has to be a point where you stop. For example, in my basement/man cave I am literally running out of room and although there are many items out there that I would want, I cannot but them because I have no space. Anyone else have this issue?

I am almost at that point in terms of my bat collection. I started to really get into bats about 2 years ago. Finding bats at a fair price is tough enough, and as I find them, I may need to let some other things go for either the room or lack of funds. After careful consideration (and having to return several bats recently that Taube would not authenticate), I decided to simply stick to collecting Phillies bats - easier to stay focused.

[zooat2]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

I think the real problem is the oversupply rather than dealers not buying. Companies like JO, Meigray, Steiner and the teams, leagues and smaller companies in some ways have really been a great benefit to the hobby, they have let us acquire stuff we otherwise could never have gotten BUT they also hurt the hobby in that they introduce a steady source of new material into the market regularly which reduces the values of the stuff already in the market. For example, say JO or MEIgray sells me a jersey for $1,500 from a player on one of the teams in their team partnerships and a few months later I decide to sell it. I advertise it at $1,500 or above I am likely to find no buyers. The buyers know that they can get one from JO or MeiGray at the same price I paid so why buy from me? Even if they are out of stock people are willing to wait until the next season where absent unsual circumstances like the player coming off an amazing year the price is likely to be similar as it was the previous year. So to sell mine I have to drastically lower the price.

Another problem is there are a finite number of collectors willing to pay several grand for the jersey of a particular player. As each one of them obtains such item that further reduces the market.

- Totally 100% agree with you. The oversupply is getting worse and worse, I mean if you look at the Steiner site there are SO MANY items on there that they will NEVER be able to sell. I started a post on this a few months back, and it seems like this topic is getting so much more traction that its actually scary that this can be happening to our beloved hobby..

- Even from a collecting standpoint that has to be a point where you stop. For example, in my basement/man cave I am literally running out of room and although there are many items out there that I would want, I cannot but them because I have no space. Anyone else have this issue?

[Klattsy]

Re: Are GU Items Becoming like BB Cards??

Hey Mark, do you know what the market is like in Australia with regards to gameused cricket, footy, rugby, etc. stuff? Is it easy/tuff to get that kind of stuff down there? Are the prices reasonable or ridiculous? Just curious.

Kurt

Change of plan...you don't accept PM

There is not much GU down here at all. It's very rare to see GU on eBay of ANY sport in Australia. Rugby League has some auctions/fundraisers during the year - the Breast Cancer (pink jersey's) and Heritage Round jersey's get auctioned by clubs for charity.

To be honest i'm not sure what cricket/football teams do with their gear, weather they have plenty of jerseys or what not during the year. Every now and again you will see some items FS but I am not sure how they are obtained initially. I would have thought you would have to know the player. They certainly don't sell items at team shops.

Most memorabilia down here is non-GU signed items. So like a signed card or ball or jersey.

The stuff that is auctioned off goes for a mint (in my book)...anwhere from $500-$10,000 for some items. Way out of my price range.

Having said that, Brett Roneberg, a baseballer who represented Australian at 2 WBC and 2000 Olympics (plus a strong domestic level and trialed at MLB clubs) recently sold a STACK of his gear on eBay to raise money...his 2009 WBC GU jersey sold for $120. His non worn 2006 WBC jersey sold for $65. I'm am spewing I missed both. However I emailed him and he is sending me a stack of his Australian Baseball League (Brisbane Bandits) gear which is great. However if that was a Rugby League or AFL player, it would have gone for a motsa.

I think there would be a market for the stuff, but just not sure how to get it! Even if there was an availability of stuff, I think people would hold onto the items longer anyways, and there would not be and active secondary sales market.

Plus there is no authentication businesses down here so stuff would be sold on trust I guess.

Hope that answers your question!
Mark.