My goodness 100K? seriously

[joelsabi]

Re: My goodness 100K? seriously

SS -

I particularly liked THIS statement:

"Alex Rodriguez just turned 34 and has 583 homeruns and over 2500 hits. He is on pace to become the ALL-TIME HOMERUN and ALL-TIME HITS leader."

It just shows he's another seller who has NO F'n Clue about the game, the records, etc...

A-Rod is well behind Jeter in hits and Jeter projects out with the highest chance to break Rose's Hit Record... and at that, Jeter's chance to do it barely breaks a 1% chance!!! He's the ONLY player to rate better than a 1% chance to break Rose's record...

- Chris

Chris,

What tool are you using?
I have these estimates using Bill James' tool.
ARod 3184
Pujols 2927
Jeter 3447
Im using Bill James favorite toy. It seems that players are player longer then Bill James model suggests tho. For example, the model expects ARod to play only 4 more years based on his current age.

Just wondering if there is a more update tool which factors in players playing longer into their career nowadays.

[joelsabi]

Re: My goodness 100K? seriously

...and almost 700 views too

how much is it in ebay fees to post something at 100,000? If 700 people click into it and people click to see what else he is selling then maybe its a great marketing ploy. or does he lose credibility as a seller with this one listing that it doesnt matter what else he is selling.

[xpress34]

Re: My goodness 100K? seriously

Chris,

What tool are you using?
I have these estimates using Bill James' tool.
ARod 3184
Pujols 2927
Jeter 3447
Im using Bill James favorite toy. It seems that players are player longer then Bill James model suggests tho. For example, the model expects ARod to play only 4 more years based on his current age.

Just wondering if there is a more update tool which factors in players playing longer into their career nowadays.

Joel -

No tools other than simple statistics.

Rose's record - 4,256; followed by Cobb - 4,189; then Aaron - 3,771

No currently active player is even past 2,800. In fact the top 5 are:

#1 - Griffey - 2,763 (maybe another year or two?) -
21 years - Avg 131 H/yr - HIGH was 185 in 1997

#2 Jeter - 2,747 (will be 1st Yankee to hit 3,000 - will do it in 2011)
15 years - Avg 183 H/Yr - HIGH was 219 in 1999

#3 I-Rod - 2,711 (probably has another 2-3 years in him)
19 years - Avg 143 H/Yr - HIGH was 199 in 1999

#4 Vizquel - 2,704 (will he even play next year?)
21 years - Avg 129 H/Yr - HIGH was 191 in 1999

#5 Sheffield - 2,689 (will he even play next year?)
22 years - Avg 122 H/Yr - HIGH was 184 in 1992

And for arguments sake:

#6 is A-Rod - 2,531
16 years - Avg 158 H/Yr - HIGH was 215 in 1996

#8 is ManRam - 2,494
17 years - Avg 147 H/Yr - HIGH was 185 in 2003

#32 is Pujols - 1.717
9 years - Avg 191 H/Yr - HIGH was 212 in 2003

#97 is Holliday - 1.030 (my guy just for grins and see how he compares)
6 years - Avg 172 H/yr - HIGH was 216 in 2007

So let's use Sheffield as the ceiling and project all of these guys out to 22 years based on the current info above (as of the END of the 2009 season) - and not figuring in any extra wear and tear due to Post Season play, All-Star Game, etc:

#1 - Griffey - 2,763
Has Played 21 years - Add 1 more Avg Yr of 131 H and he will hit 2,894. Even if you used his HIGH of 185, he won't hit 3,000 without a 23rd yr.

#2 Jeter - 2,747 (will be 1st Yankee to hit 3,000 - will do it in 2011)
Has played 15 years - Add 7 more Avg Yrs of 183 H (1281) and he will hit 4028 - Still 228 shy of Rose and 161 shy of Cobb. Say he matches his HIGH of 219 for 7 years (1533) and he will have 4280 - 15 ahead of Rose... HIGHLY unlikely.

#3 I-Rod - 2,711 (probably has another 2-3 years in him)
Has Played 19 years - Add 3 more Avg Yr of 143 H (429)and he will hit 3,140.

#4 Vizquel - 2,704 (will he even play next year?)
Has Played 21 years - Add 1 more Avg Yr of 191 H and he will hit 2,895. Needs a 23rd season to break 3,000.

#5 Sheffield - 2,689 (will he even play next year?)
Has Played 22 years - Needs at least 2 more Avg Yrs of 184 H to break 3,000.

And for arguments sake:

#6 is A-Rod - 2,531
Has Played 16 years - Add 6 more Avg Yr of 158 H (948)and he will hit 3,479. Well shy of Rose and Cobb. Needs at least 3 more AVG years as a Yankee to break 3,00 hits in pinstripes.

#8 is ManRam - 2,494
Has Played 17 years - Add 5 more Avg Yr of 147 H (735)and he will hit 3,229. If he only makes 3 more years, he will not make 3,000 hit club.

#32 is Pujols - 1.717
Has Played 9 years - Add 13 more Avg Yr of 191 H (2483)and he will hit 4,200. Just 11 more than Cobb and still 56 shy of Rose. I like Albert but I don't think he has 13 more MLB seasons in him at the same production rate.

#97 is Holliday - 1.030 (my guy just for grins and see how he compares)
Has Played 6 years - Add 16 more Avg Yr of 172 H (2752)and he will hit 3782. Very strong possibility of 3,000 hits, but no where near Rose and Cobb.

If you remove Rookie Season (which is usually the LOW Yr of Hits), yes - you will bump these numbers up some, but considering the normal peak and decline in most players careers, I feel that using the Rookie Year in the calculations pretty much levels out the expected decline.

The numbers show that outside of Jeter and Pujols, NONE of these players even have an outside chance to break 4,000 hits.

And Jeter or Pujols would have to match their career year highs year in and year out to have a SLIM chance of catching Cobb or Rose.

- Chris

[xpress34]

Re: My goodness 100K? seriously

CORRECTION...

For my 'Projections', I used the HIGH Hit years for Vizquel and Sheffield, NOT AVG...

Therefore, HIGHLY unlikely that either will hit 3,000.

- Chris

P.S. - MODS... PLEASE give us EDIT capability!!!

[joelsabi]

Re: My goodness 100K? seriously

Joel -

No tools other than simple statistics.

So let's use Sheffield as the ceiling and project all of these guys out to 22 years based on the current info above (as of the END of the 2009 season) - and not figuring in any extra wear and tear due to Post Season play, All-Star Game, etc:

If you remove Rookie Season (which is usually the LOW Yr of Hits), yes - you will bump these numbers up some, but considering the normal peak and decline in most players careers, I feel that using the Rookie Year in the calculations pretty much levels out the expected decline.

- Chris

Chris,

I see your reasoning thanks. nothing like coming up with your own calculation. it kinda shows how amazing roses record is. his longevity and playing the most games ever. one thing that strikes me about jeter and rose are both them being very durable. jeters isnt slowing down defensively yet either. and then there always the possibility of extending that career as a DH.


thanks

Joel