Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

[David]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

If Michael Jordan's and Joe Montana's values have gone done with time, these hot prospect's values will go down. Prospect speculating is largely about fads. One or two of the prospect bunch will become HOFers, and most of the rest will become not. As Gary Carter and Bruce Sutter show us, even if a hot prospect does become a HOFer, his prices likely will still fall.

[skyking26]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Good thread topic. I've touched on it myself from time to time and experienced the inflation for many years. Back when Cecil Fielder came to Detroit from Japan and smacked 51 HRS - his bats were selling well over $400 and this was 1990. Foolishly I bought a few. Cecil had a decent career and went onto a WS ring with NY in 96, but his last years were spent hopping from team to team and his off-field theatrics post career (gambling) have tainted his accomplishments. Today, you'd be lucky to get $100 for a Cecil bat. However, I received a dealer email today for a Prince Fielder gamer OVER $500! Forget it. Speculation is not the way to go folks.

I agree with the posts written, a few months ago I struggled to get $300 for a Thome bat! The man is approaching 600 HRS. What does Jim Thome have to do to get attention? Anyone? Simple fact, buy what you want for your collection and forget about resale.

I'm currently off for a bit with a medical issue and am spending time going thru my collection. I happened upon an old SCD today from 76. There was an ad in there for late 60's early 70's flannels (mostly HOF's) all starting at $75! If we only knew...

[Vintagedeputy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I had that conversation with Andrew L. about the Nationals how I do not get how him and you other Nationals guy pay what you do for those prices consider the team is a last place team full of former nobodys from other teams. But he said its supply and demand as the team is so new there is no items. The prices will go down over the next few years. It is the same effect for these so called future superstars.

I'm a Nats fan and collector so I think that I can speak about this team a bit. To categorize them as a "last place team full of former nobodys from other teams" is really an unfair categorization. The issue is pitching and injuries. Christain Guzman is 6th in the league in hits, 7th in average and just belted another 2 home runs tonight. Many teams were looking at Ronnie Belliard at the trade deadline. He's a fantastic infielder and hitter. Aaron Boone is a fan favorite and has some fans on this forum as well. Zimmerman is an outstanding 3rd baseman and the future of the franchise.

The Nats have no pitching, zero, zilch. That's the issue. We have a couple of arms that could be #4 or 5 starters on other teams but they are untested rookies who need some time under their belts. Guys like Hanrahan have amazing stuff but not enough confidence in his ability and has been relegated to the closer role.

As far as position players, you have to really watch the team on a daily basis to see the future. Trust me, its there. We all know that Zimmerman is going to be a superstar. Even the announcers tonight said that if Zim was in the NY Mets line up, he'd be considered every bit as good as David Wright. There are a number of other hitters that have some real promise. Once these guys get some pitching, they'll be the new Tampa Bay Rays. They will come from nowhere and be great, but its going to be down the road a bit. Laugh now, but the team will come around.

[chakes89]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Oh to be able to go back in time with a suitcase full of money and an empty duffle bag.

One can dream I guess

[Gyro123]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Three quick points after reading this thread

1. I agree that bats of rising stars (Longoria, Bruce, Braun, etc.) tend to command a premium. I cannot say however this differs from most other industries. There are people out there who want the latest and greatest in everything in this world whether it be Tv's, Ipods, Cell Phones, etc. Simply put there is a large percentage of people out there that will pay a premium to be the first to own the latest and greatest. Hence the high prices.

2. While I think the current state of the economy has a lot to do with bats of current stars such as Jim Thome, etc. selling for rather cheap, I do think it warrants mentioning that prime examples of these players bats continue to command top dollar. By prime examples I mean bats that exhibit great use, proper characteristics, predominant model, etc. We must not forget with game used becoming so prevelant there is a much greater supply of these items available in todays market place. More often then not, most star player bats that present themselves in the hobby do not qualify as prime examples. I cannot begin to tell you how many less then stellar Manny, Ortiz, Vlad, Pujols, Arod, and Jeter bats I have seen over the past few years. Game used bats of these players are seemingly available in great quantity but the majority tend to show little use or have other imperfections affecting their values. Simply put I am of the belief that a pristine example of any of these players bats would still command top dollar.

3. How do you see the Nats as being anywheres close to the Rays? The Rays had (Crawford, Shields, Upton, Kazmir, etc) and have (Price, Longoria, etc.) a ton of young studs. The Nationals system is by all accounts horrid, with very little help on the way. Heck they couldn't even sign their top pick in this years draft, Aaron Crow. While I do like Zimmerman, Milledge and Dukes. They all have some question marks at this point. Zimmerman has failed to take that next step. Milledge faces questions about his commitment and Dukes' personality issues are well documented. You should hang your hopes on young pitching prospect Ross Detwiler not 26 year old John Hanrahan. It should also be noted that Zimmerman not being in NY is not the only thing seperating him from being David Wright. There's that little thing we refer to as production. Look it up the numbers don't lie. Lastly, Ronnie Belliard while capable is far from being an outstanding infielder. If he is such a franchise cornerstone why trade Rauch for perceived 2b of the future Emilio Bonifacio. Yes teams looked at him at the deadline and on waivers, but it was strictly as an injury replacement (DBacks for Hudson) or to block another team from acquiring him (Dodgers preventing DBacks from swinging a deal).

[Vintagedeputy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

3. How do you see the Nats as being anywheres close to the Rays? The Rays had (Crawford, Shields, Upton, Kazmir, etc) and have (Price, Longoria, etc.) a ton of young studs. The Nationals system is by all accounts horrid, with very little help on the way. Heck they couldn't even sign their top pick in this years draft, Aaron Crow. While I do like Zimmerman, Milledge and Dukes. They all have some question marks at this point. Zimmerman has failed to take that next step. Milledge faces questions about his commitment and Dukes' personality issues are well documented. You should hang your hopes on young pitching prospect Ross Detwiler not 26 year old John Hanrahan. It should also be noted that Zimmerman not being in NY is not the only thing seperating him from being David Wright. There's that little thing we refer to as production. Look it up the numbers don't lie. Lastly, Ronnie Belliard while capable is far from being an outstanding infielder. If he is such a franchise cornerstone why trade Rauch for perceived 2b of the future Emilio Bonifacio. Yes teams looked at him at the deadline and on waivers, but it was strictly as an injury replacement (DBacks for Hudson) or to block another team from acquiring him (Dodgers preventing DBacks from swinging a deal).

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I never said that Belliard was a "franchise cornerstone". He is, however a very under appreciated fielder and hitter. Sure they traded for Bonafacio. The Yankees have a great shortstop in Jeter and signed another SS in Arod and got him to play 3rd. Strange deals happen. You never know why the management made the trade and as good as Belliard is, why not make a trade for someone who may be better?

I watch this team every single day and I feel the comparison to the Rays is valid. Before this season, Scott Kazmir was a scant 6 games over .500 and was cast aside as a Mets minor leaguer with little promise. Now he's having a great season for the Rays. James Shields was a career 2 games over .500 before this season. Crawford was the Rays best slugger for the past few years and never hit more than 18 homers in a season. Upton had a great 2007 but his numbers have been down.

Zimmerman vs. Wright in the production department is not that far off, considering the protection in the line up that Wright gets and the better pitches he sees and the injuries that Zim had.... Look at this - Wright vs. Zim in 2008 142 games vs. 93, 557 AB vs. 371, 162 hits vs. 106, 39 2B's vs. 22, 27 homers vs. 12, 102 strikeouts vs. 63, a .291 BA vs. 286....the numbers are comparable if Zim was not hurt.

Last year, Dmitri Young hit .320 and had a super All Star season. He is a career .292 hitter over 13 seasons. Would other teams love to have a guy like that? Sure they would. Too bad he got injured. Oh yeah, the injuries...every team suffer injuries but look who has been injured for the Nats this year -

09/04/2008 Ronnie Belliard Day-to-DayStrained right groin09/02/2008 Justin Maxwell 60-Day DLRight wrist injury09/02/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DaySprained left ankle08/25/2008 Austin Kearns 15-Day DLStress fracture, left foot-out 2-4 weeks08/16/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DayLeft game - Strained right calf08/05/2008 Alberto Gonzalez 15-Day DLStrained left hamstring08/03/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayLeg cramps08/03/2008 Ryan Zimmerman Day-to-DayHand08/03/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLRight calf strain07/30/2008 Cristian Guzman Day-to-DayLeft thumb contusion07/20/2008 Dmitri Young 15-Day DLDiabetes complications07/18/2008 Wily Mo Pena 60-Day DLLeft rotator surgery - out for season07/14/2008 Wily Mo Pena Day-to-DaySurgery, left rotator cuff07/11/2008 Dmitri Young Day-to-DayLeft game - Lower back tightness07/07/2008 Aaron Boone 15-Day DLStrained left calf07/06/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLTorn tendons, right knee - out 4-6 weeks07/05/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayTorn tendons, right knee - out 4-6 weeks07/03/2008 Matt Chico Day-to-DayLeft elbow surgery - out for season06/29/2008 Lastings Milledge 15-Day DLStrained right groin06/28/2008 Lastings Milledge Day-to-DayLeft game - right groin06/25/2008 Shawn Hill 15-Day DLStrained right forearm - out for season06/20/2008 Aaron Boone Day-to-DaySore left knee06/12/2008 Aaron Boone Day-to-DayLeft game - Strained neck06/07/2008 Dmitri Young Day-to-DayFlu-like symptoms06/04/2008 Odalis Perez 15-Day DLLeft shoulder tendinitis05/30/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DayConcussion-like symptoms05/26/2008 Ryan Zimmerman 15-Day DLSmall labral tear in left shoulder05/23/2008 Matt Chico 15-Day DLLeft elbow surgery - out for season05/23/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayLeft game-bruised left ankle05/22/2008 Austin Kearns 15-Day DLRight elbow surgery - out 3-4 weeks05/17/2008 Shawn Hill Day-to-DayRight elbow tightness05/16/2008 Ronnie Belliard 15-Day DLStrained left calf05/15/2008 Nick Johnson 60-Day DLRight wrist surgery - out for season05/14/2008 Nick Johnson Day-to-DayStrained right wrist05/09/2008 Johnny Estrada 15-Day DLUlnar neuritis in right elbow05/09/2008 Paul Lo Duca 15-Day DLFractured right hand04/30/2008 Chad Cordero 60-Day DLTorn right labrum - out for season04/30/2008 Chad Cordero Day-to-DayTorn shoulder muscle - out 4-6 weeks04/14/2008 Paul Lo Duca 15-Day DLBruised right hand04/13/2008 Paul Lo Duca Day-to-DayLeft game - Bruised right hand04/03/2008 Dmitri Young 15-Day DLLower back sprain03/31/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLRight hamstring tightness03/27/2008 Chad Cordero 15-Day DLRight shoulder tendinitis03/21/2008 Wily Mo Pena 15-Day DLLeft oblique strain - out 3-6 weeks03/21/2008 Ryan Wagner 60-Day DLRecovery from right shoulder surgery03/21/2008 Johnny Estrada 15-Day DLRight elbow soreness03/21/2008 Shawn Hill 15-Day DLRight forearm tightness03/05/2008 Paul Lo Duca Day-to-DayRecovery from left knee surgery01/28/2008 Paul Lo Duca

Dukes, Young, Cordero, Johnson, Belliard, Zimmerman, Flores, Boone, Milledge, all the big names are there. Give them a healthy season and let the pitchers figure it out and the potential is absolutely there..

[jetersbatboy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I guess the high prices are generated by hype and popularity. I route for the Yankees, but collect other players. I have paid ridiculous money for a Cano bat and can see myself paying $500-$900 for a Braun bat. But would not pay that kind of money for a Wright. I guess its preference. As for these future HOF like Thome, Rollins, Kent, Etc. I would pay better money, if there bats where team or player authenticated. I just cant seem to find those. These Future HOF have so many bats out there it makes you wonder if its legit. As for third party authentication, everyone makes mistakes. If theses future HOF, where more willing to authenticate there own equipment, it would make me willing to part with more cash for a bat. I have noticed these younger group of new stars are willing to write game used on there bat or have a agent sell there equipment. You may end up paying a premium but there a better chance its legit. To all there own, some will agree some will disagree.
thanks Scott

[thomecollector]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I guess the high prices are generated by hype and popularity. I route for the Yankees, but collect other players. I have paid ridiculous money for a Cano bat and can see myself paying $500-$900 for a Braun bat. But would not pay that kind of money for a Wright. I guess its preference. As for these future HOF like Thome, Rollins, Kent, Etc. I would pay better money, if there bats where team or player authenticated. I just cant seem to find those. These Future HOF have so many bats out there it makes you wonder if its legit. As for third party authentication, everyone makes mistakes. If theses future HOF, where more willing to authenticate there own equipment, it would make me willing to part with more cash for a bat. I have noticed these younger group of new stars are willing to write game used on there bat or have a agent sell there equipment. You may end up paying a premium but there a better chance its legit. To all there own, some will agree some will disagree.
thanks Scott

Scott,
I agree that a team /player authenticated bat is more desirable. As
a guy that has collected Thome exclusively for almost 15 years. I have seen little if any ever team authenicated. Thome very rarely will authenticate any. When it comes to his stuff you have to know his characteristics. I don't have anything in my collection as far as a bat that is authenticated by team / player. I have only seen one or two ever MLB authenticated. I spent about thirty minutes sitting with Thome in Baltimore a few weeks back. He was asking me how I obtain some of my items. He really doesn't get into the whole selling his stuff thing. I wish he did. I know there is a bunch of stuff I would love to have. Anyway, I would buy his bats at $200-$300 any time
if they showed the proper atributes.

[FastLane80]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I cannot agree more. Here's one example that made my jaw drop: http://www.steinersports.com/ssm/con...811551410054CK

Granted, just because it's advertised for that price, doesn't mean it's going to sell but I think stores like this help promote the overinflated prices.

[Vintagedeputy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I cannot agree more. Here's one example that made my jaw drop: http://www.steinersports.com/ssm/con...811551410054CK

Granted, just because it's advertised for that price, doesn't mean it's going to sell but I think stores like this help promote the overinflated prices.

Now that is truly sad....15K, wow

[jetersbatboy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Who is Kershaw? What has he done for his jersey to be worth 15k? This is killing are hobby! To price a nobody, not even a top 10 prospect with a beyond ridiculos price.

[FastLane80]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Who is Kershaw? What has he done for his jersey to be worth 15k? This is killing are hobby! To price a nobody, not even a top 10 prospect with a beyond ridiculos price.

Yeah he's a top prospect but so was Darren Dreifort and that didn't pan out too well. That jersey is priced in Drysdale terriotory. For the record, everything on Steiner is way overpriced. I'd love to buy a Russell Martin, James Loney or Andre Ethier game used bat but they're asking $600 for a cracked bat!

[allstarsplus]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

I'm a Nats fan and collector so I think that I can speak about this team a bit. To categorize them as a "last place team full of former nobodys from other teams" is really an unfair categorization. The issue is pitching and injuries. Christain Guzman is 6th in the league in hits, 7th in average and just belted another 2 home runs tonight. Many teams were looking at Ronnie Belliard at the trade deadline. He's a fantastic infielder and hitter. Aaron Boone is a fan favorite and has some fans on this forum as well. Zimmerman is an outstanding 3rd baseman and the future of the franchise.

The Nats have no pitching, zero, zilch. That's the issue. We have a couple of arms that could be #4 or 5 starters on other teams but they are untested rookies who need some time under their belts. Guys like Hanrahan have amazing stuff but not enough confidence in his ability and has been relegated to the closer role.

As far as position players, you have to really watch the team on a daily basis to see the future. Trust me, its there. We all know that Zimmerman is going to be a superstar. Even the announcers tonight said that if Zim was in the NY Mets line up, he'd be considered every bit as good as David Wright. There are a number of other hitters that have some real promise. Once these guys get some pitching, they'll be the new Tampa Bay Rays. They will come from nowhere and be great, but its going to be down the road a bit. Laugh now, but the team will come around.

Jim - I agree 110% with you. This team has potential and when Jesus Flores, Zim, Milledge and Dukes are in the same lineup the team won this year over .500+. This team has been killed with injuries this year.

Prices have dropped from where the 2005 prices were because it was the 1st year of a new team, and 2008 prices have been good because it was 1st year in a new stadium.

If you want an auto'd Zim bat you have only one place to go which is Locker Room Memorabilia and their sales are good. There are very few other bats of his out there so like I told Brian Berger it is supply & demand.

While I generally agree with Gyro Richardson, I think the point of comparing Zim to David Wright is more to that Zim had no coverage in the lineup last year and very little this year at times. Wright has Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado. Ryan Church who played for the Nationals raised his batting average 20 points going to the Mets. It is a hypothetical which I happen to agree with Jim (VintageDeputy) but hey we all have our opinions.

[allstarsplus]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I never said that Belliard was a "franchise cornerstone". He is, however a very under appreciated fielder and hitter. Sure they traded for Bonafacio. The Yankees have a great shortstop in Jeter and signed another SS in Arod and got him to play 3rd. Strange deals happen. You never know why the management made the trade and as good as Belliard is, why not make a trade for someone who may be better?

I watch this team every single day and I feel the comparison to the Rays is valid. Before this season, Scott Kazmir was a scant 6 games over .500 and was cast aside as a Mets minor leaguer with little promise. Now he's having a great season for the Rays. James Shields was a career 2 games over .500 before this season. Crawford was the Rays best slugger for the past few years and never hit more than 18 homers in a season. Upton had a great 2007 but his numbers have been down.

Zimmerman vs. Wright in the production department is not that far off, considering the protection in the line up that Wright gets and the better pitches he sees and the injuries that Zim had.... Look at this - Wright vs. Zim in 2008 142 games vs. 93, 557 AB vs. 371, 162 hits vs. 106, 39 2B's vs. 22, 27 homers vs. 12, 102 strikeouts vs. 63, a .291 BA vs. 286....the numbers are comparable if Zim was not hurt.

Last year, Dmitri Young hit .320 and had a super All Star season. He is a career .292 hitter over 13 seasons. Would other teams love to have a guy like that? Sure they would. Too bad he got injured. Oh yeah, the injuries...every team suffer injuries but look who has been injured for the Nats this year -

09/04/2008 Ronnie Belliard Day-to-DayStrained right groin09/02/2008 Justin Maxwell 60-Day DLRight wrist injury09/02/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DaySprained left ankle08/25/2008 Austin Kearns 15-Day DLStress fracture, left foot-out 2-4 weeks08/16/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DayLeft game - Strained right calf08/05/2008 Alberto Gonzalez 15-Day DLStrained left hamstring08/03/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayLeg cramps08/03/2008 Ryan Zimmerman Day-to-DayHand08/03/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLRight calf strain07/30/2008 Cristian Guzman Day-to-DayLeft thumb contusion07/20/2008 Dmitri Young 15-Day DLDiabetes complications07/18/2008 Wily Mo Pena 60-Day DLLeft rotator surgery - out for season07/14/2008 Wily Mo Pena Day-to-DaySurgery, left rotator cuff07/11/2008 Dmitri Young Day-to-DayLeft game - Lower back tightness07/07/2008 Aaron Boone 15-Day DLStrained left calf07/06/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLTorn tendons, right knee - out 4-6 weeks07/05/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayTorn tendons, right knee - out 4-6 weeks07/03/2008 Matt Chico Day-to-DayLeft elbow surgery - out for season06/29/2008 Lastings Milledge 15-Day DLStrained right groin06/28/2008 Lastings Milledge Day-to-DayLeft game - right groin06/25/2008 Shawn Hill 15-Day DLStrained right forearm - out for season06/20/2008 Aaron Boone Day-to-DaySore left knee06/12/2008 Aaron Boone Day-to-DayLeft game - Strained neck06/07/2008 Dmitri Young Day-to-DayFlu-like symptoms06/04/2008 Odalis Perez 15-Day DLLeft shoulder tendinitis05/30/2008 Jesus Flores Day-to-DayConcussion-like symptoms05/26/2008 Ryan Zimmerman 15-Day DLSmall labral tear in left shoulder05/23/2008 Matt Chico 15-Day DLLeft elbow surgery - out for season05/23/2008 Elijah Dukes Day-to-DayLeft game-bruised left ankle05/22/2008 Austin Kearns 15-Day DLRight elbow surgery - out 3-4 weeks05/17/2008 Shawn Hill Day-to-DayRight elbow tightness05/16/2008 Ronnie Belliard 15-Day DLStrained left calf05/15/2008 Nick Johnson 60-Day DLRight wrist surgery - out for season05/14/2008 Nick Johnson Day-to-DayStrained right wrist05/09/2008 Johnny Estrada 15-Day DLUlnar neuritis in right elbow05/09/2008 Paul Lo Duca 15-Day DLFractured right hand04/30/2008 Chad Cordero 60-Day DLTorn right labrum - out for season04/30/2008 Chad Cordero Day-to-DayTorn shoulder muscle - out 4-6 weeks04/14/2008 Paul Lo Duca 15-Day DLBruised right hand04/13/2008 Paul Lo Duca Day-to-DayLeft game - Bruised right hand04/03/2008 Dmitri Young 15-Day DLLower back sprain03/31/2008 Elijah Dukes 15-Day DLRight hamstring tightness03/27/2008 Chad Cordero 15-Day DLRight shoulder tendinitis03/21/2008 Wily Mo Pena 15-Day DLLeft oblique strain - out 3-6 weeks03/21/2008 Ryan Wagner 60-Day DLRecovery from right shoulder surgery03/21/2008 Johnny Estrada 15-Day DLRight elbow soreness03/21/2008 Shawn Hill 15-Day DLRight forearm tightness03/05/2008 Paul Lo Duca Day-to-DayRecovery from left knee surgery01/28/2008 Paul Lo Duca

Dukes, Young, Cordero, Johnson, Belliard, Zimmerman, Flores, Boone, Milledge, all the big names are there. Give them a healthy season and let the pitchers figure it out and the potential is absolutely there..

Jim - I am working forward chronologically on this thread and just read this Post!!! AWESOME!!!! We have to stick up for our boys in DC!

If we had a 1/2 decent bullpen we would have taken the last 2 games from the Mets!!!!

The baseball the Nats have played since August 1st gives us a lot of hope for next season. If we get a couple of good pickups in the off-season(especially at First Base & a #1 pitcher) we will make a run next year-----

[Vintagedeputy]

Re: Are Raising Stars Bats Becoming Over Priced?

Jim - I am working forward chronologically on this thread and just read this Post!!! AWESOME!!!! We have to stick up for our boys in DC!

If we had a 1/2 decent bullpen we would have taken the last 2 games from the Mets!!!!

The baseball the Nats have played since August 1st gives us a lot of hope for next season. If we get a couple of good pickups in the off-season(especially at First Base & a #1 pitcher) we will make a run next year-----

Agreed!