Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

[Vikings_Collector]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

The cards were just done to death, so much so that even the little pieces of cloth in the cards were called into question. For most NFL players, you are looking at 16 game used jerseys a year. Even if a guy plays 10 years straight, thats 160 total jerseys over the span of a decade. Not exactly impossible to find, but a darn site better than the thousands of "jersey" cards churned out each year.

But I agree, some of the gamers that are bright and shiny today and commanding sick money will be worth a fraction of what they sold for recently. People are dropping 5 figures for the hot rookie QB jerseys, when for the same money, maybe less, they could be getting Marino or Elway (or name just about anybody) gamers that are always going to be valuable. For every Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, there are ten, maybe twenty (heck, maybe a 100)guys like Jeff Blake or Aaron Brooks, where they look like stars for a year or two and then fade into oblivion.

However, if you're referring to football, there are far less than 16 gamers per season. Of course this depends on the player, but I have seen that jerseys are definitely recycled for games, and used more than once.

[solarlottry]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

49ers items are still selling for good money. A 1994 Merton Hanks throwback sold for 3000$ and Steve Young sold for over 6000$ in the last big Heritage auction. Prior to that a 1994 Watters sold for almost 4000$ in a recent MEARS auction. I don't consider Watters a scrub but nor do I consider him a HOFer. 4000$ for his jersey is a great price is you are the seller!

Vintage 49er items always command big dollars. Even the backups routinely run 300-500$ per shirt if they ever surface. There are players I would pay big bucks for who most people would consider a scrub but I need that player for the collection.

Even the most recent 49er team did not sell many shirts this season. They only sold a handful on NFL Auctions. I have multiple shirts from the last few seasons that were worn for multiple games.

I think that as long as the NFL is so popular the interest in GU will be there as some leave but others join the hobby.

Always buying 49er game worn items.

Paul
garciajones@yahoo.com

[3arod13]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

I think what is going to prove to be the difference is that the pieces you can prove (photomacth, etc) as "historic" or "unique" pieces will now become the desired, and the other "common" stuff will continue to drop in value.

+1

[jeffaary]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

I think the prices for common players will drop as the generation who buy their stuff lose interest or die and no one cares about those players any more. Especially now that players have multiple jerseys per season instead of 2 like they did in the past. Babe Ruth jerseys will bring $$$ forever, however.

Here's the thing, though. If you collect what you love, who cares? I collect a special niche that probably no one else cares about; Boston pro jerseys of players who went to Ohio State (my family moved from Ohio to Boston when I was 4). There's some very good players in my collection, but no hall of famers. Since I care about those jerseys more than someone who sees it as just a Patriots jersey of a good player I probably overpay for the items I buy, but I don't care. I didn't buy them to make money. 40 years from now my kids may or may not recoup the money I spent on these items, but I enjoy the hell out of them.

[GoTigers]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

Jeter was one of, if not the most, marketed stars in the modern era in terms of GU. He also had a long and mostly healthy career. Over 20yrs he had 12,602 PA's. If he broke/switched bats every 20 AB's that means there are 630 legit Jeter Gamers out there. That may be over saturation for a common player.. But to me that is still a very limited supply for a star.

Even if he switched lumber every 15 PA's... That's 840 bats. A drop in the bucket compared to cards. Just imagine if Topps was the only card company and said they were only going to produce 840 cards of Jeter.. Ever. How much would those be worth?

[teddy406]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

I think that it will be much the same outcome of the card craze of 20+ years ago where it ended up the older, much more scarce (in hindsight) stuff ended up being much, much more valuable than the mass produced new card sets. It is mostly supply and demand, but the vintage bats, etc. are going to hold their value or increase possibly as I do believe the numbers of these players will look better in comparison after the recent PED inflated era. The new stuff seems like a sucker bet to me sometimes.

I agree with Ben. Vintage is better for investment and for fun (for me). The old saying Supply and Demand. Maybe there are 20 game used Doerr bats out there total. But there will be thousands of Arod, Pujols, and Trout items. Just my opinion.

[bravesfanjd]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

It's an interesting theory and one that may happen. That's why I collect players I want to have in my collection because I know I'll never be able to recoup my money. Although I assume if you collect stars of sports and probably focus on football and basketball you may be able to make money as the kids who grow up idolizing the players now become adults in the future with disposable income. I myself am collecting 90s era players form when I was younger I am focusing on the Braves because they are my favorite team but I am also buying Dodger players like Karros and Mondesi because I went to Dodger stadium my whole life and I remeber seeing those guys play live every baseball game I went to as much as I collect the current guys and I do whenever I buy a player from the 90s I always get a little more excited.

I have always felt the biggest issue with sports items as investments is that people have to have disposable income to buy it and when things go bad the market gets flooded because everybody sells what they have and you can't sell your stuff because the people who regularly buy it aren't because things are so bad. I really feel even though as a collector and finding out how affordable sports collectables can be depending on your goals the average person only sees the mainstream articles about the 300k jersey or bat selling at auction and so they don't think they can be part of the hobby so with more of the same items like 50 player bats in a year being released yes I think it will cause some form of over saturation because the people who collect these items is a smaller group then most realize

[jpipes]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

Certainly can't speak for baseball but in the NFL (and the Packer specifically) they issue two road and two home jerseys a season. Not a game but season. That means there are far fewer Packer game used jerseys floating around. And those offered direct from the team are even more rare.

[commando]

Re: Will GU suffer the same "watered down" fate as cards?

The area of collecting I pay the most attention to is NFL jerseys from the 1980s. I have noticed that game used shirts from this era 1) aren't available in large quantities whatsoever, and 2) generally sell for low prices when they do come on the market, when you consider how scarce these jerseys really are.

I believe the game used hobby may be smaller than some of us realize. Fans seem happy to pay $200 for a retail authentic jersey, while they could pay that same $200 or less for one that was actually worn by a player. Of course, the retail jersey will feature a current team star or team legend, while the game used jersey will have been worn by a common player or semi-star for that price.

I know that certain teams are exceptions, but in general I believe that GU football items from the 80s are undervalued. I have also noticed the same lack of demand for baseball bats from the 1980s. You can find tons of '80s GU bats from starting players that can't sell for $40 on eBay. Any given player probably has very few bats floating around these days, but the collector demand for them is even less.

Perhaps the average fan is wired differently than the game used collector. It may not make sense to buy a bat that is covered in pine tar and has a 12-inch crack down the handle!