The Value of Potential

[gingi79]

Re: The Value of Potential

If the buyer is a huge Gators fan and price is simply a cost of owning something they will love forever, then good pick up.

I personally believe this hobby will in the not too distant future, become a lot like baseball cards, commemorative plates, NASCAR die cast and the like. "Value" will plummet and with it, a lot of these insane costs will drop.

I'd also like to address a few comments that keeps coming up with very little comprehension of their distinct points:

1) The availability of these shirts for guys like Tebow and Strasburg today is obscene in comparison to the 90's, 80's, 70's etc. How many photomatched HOF jerseys have you seen for sale where there is no doubt about the jersey? MeiGray had a photomatched Montana for $17k at one point. Barry would have to chime in on more details and the exact price.

2) Guys wear 10+ jerseys a season now. How many jerseys did Marino wear in 1984? or Montana in 1980? Bradshaw in say 1974? No one knows a specific number (to the best of my knowledge at least) looking at photos week after week, maybe 2 or 3 of each style at most? Then they were recycled in some cases year after year?

3) Anyone with a big enough pocketbook can buy any jersey. Before JO and MeiGray and the like, how did we get our jerseys? If you were lucky and knew guys like Milt Byron or Larry P for Hockey or Tuff Stuff, Beckett, Murf Denny or Dick Dobbins. That's it folks. If you were in touch with them, getting stuff, real stuff was hard as hell. Now? 17 different auction houses, eBay, this site, 4 other game worn forums, hundreds of collectors and dealers with their pics online and posted email addresses. Access to NFL Auctions, NHL Auctions, teams selling online and through their websites even in their stadiums. Jesus, you could email the damn player sometimes!

The hobby has apexed and I hypothesize that costs for jerseys rivaling new cars will soon go the way of the 1987 Topps Baseball set. When anyone can have anything, what's it worth?

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

$10,000 is a lot of money on a player that you are most likely correct about never being one of the "greats" and you can throw Manning, Favre and Marino in that list too on the list of modern greats and most would say $10,000 is a good price for a sure thing 1st pro jersey.

On the Strasburg correlation, his pitching debut was the greatest in MLB history and while his injury set him back a year, his only real jersey that I know of had sold for under $5,000 with no others out there with any photomatches or provenance.

If the Tebow was $3,000, that is still a lot of money for a guy who may be nothing more than a "wildcat" QB in the NFL.

I feel the same way about the Mark Sanchez jersey last year. In this hobby, to each their own!

I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell.

It is pretty sad that Tim Couch probably was the best of this bunch....

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they are doing with Tebow. They are just grooming him and letting him learn. They didn't take him the first round to waste him.
What I don't understand is why Kyle Orton is not appreciated more.

The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell.

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they are doing with Tebow. They are just grooming him and letting him learn. They didn't take him the first round to waste him.
What I don't understand is why Kyle Orton is not appreciated more.

[nationals2k9]

Re: The Value of Potential

Does Tebow remind anyone else of Phillip Rivers? Both were high draft picks that an AFC West team traded to obtain. Both ended up starting their career behind a former Purdue QB who was not a former first round pick and was not viewed as a star, then suddendly the former Purdue QB started playing like a star keeping the first rounder on the bench. Rivers sat for about two years and as a result it will greatly impact his final career stats and the way Orton's playing it looks like Tebow may do the same. Conversely Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are all starting and except for Bradford were all picked much lower than Tebow. So it looks like Tebow got jobbed by being picked by the Broncos.

Simply comparing Tebow to Rivers is a joke though you have shown you can draw some comparisons. Pound for pound, I actually think McCoy could grow into a poor man's Brees in a few years. Orton will never be Brees and he only throws as much as he does because the team stinks.

Back to the topic... if a person is in a position financially to "gamble" on a guy with high potential I say go for it! It'd be fun to be able to snatch up rookie gear from all of the guys everyone talks about. But for the majority of us, I think the safe play is to let that stuff pass and use our smarts later in the player's career to try and grab some of the early stuff.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely.

I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above.

Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.

$10,000 is a lot of money on a player that you are most likely correct about never being one of the "greats" and you can throw Manning, Favre and Marino in that list too on the list of modern greats and most would say $10,000 is a good price for a sure thing 1st pro jersey.

On the Strasburg correlation, his pitching debut was the greatest in MLB history and while his injury set him back a year, his only real jersey that I know of had sold for under $5,000 with no others out there with any photomatches or provenance.

If the Tebow was $3,000, that is still a lot of money for a guy who may be nothing more than a "wildcat" QB in the NFL.

I feel the same way about the Mark Sanchez jersey last year. In this hobby, to each their own!

[legaleagle92481]

Re: The Value of Potential

Does Tebow remind anyone else of Phillip Rivers? Both were high draft picks that an AFC West team traded to obtain. Both ended up starting their career behind a former Purdue QB who was not a former first round pick and was not viewed as a star, then suddendly the former Purdue QB started playing like a star keeping the first rounder on the bench. Rivers sat for about two years and as a result it will greatly impact his final career stats and the way Orton's playing it looks like Tebow may do the same. Conversely Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are all starting and except for Bradford were all picked much lower than Tebow. So it looks like Tebow got jobbed by being picked by the Broncos.

[kudu]

Re: The Value of Potential

I wonder if being good looking has any factor in these jerseys going for so much. Tebow, Sanchez, and Brady are all GQ quality guys, which I would think expands the market to women and you know women love to shop

[indyred]

Re: The Value of Potential

Wonder if JO will get orange alternate from todays game he scored his first TD in. That one would sell for a mint. Tebow mania is still big. I know any of his rare cards sell for crazy amounts.

[Jules9]

Re: The Value of Potential

Personally I don't know how it can be considered "game used" if he was never on the field for a snap. My question is if the jersey gets sold, does JO tell the buyer that he was never out there for a play and just backed up the whole game.

[jbsportstuff]

Re: The Value of Potential

The one positive thing about purchasing a rookie gamer is the rarity and difficulty of owning an early jersey of the player. Just was talking to Jeff about how we see tons of late Barry Larkin jerseys pop up, yet you never see a rookie jersey or any of his 1980's come about ever. It can be risky spending a premium for an unkown, but you may be getting something that will be extremely difficult to find down the road.

Yeah but I still have to say thanks for the 1989 Larkin game used pants. I've not seen an early Larkin listed for a long time. The vest jerseys pop up every now and then but not the 86-93 jerseys. Does anyone here have one that they are willing to part with?

[AWA85]

Re: The Value of Potential

The one positive thing about purchasing a rookie gamer is the rarity and difficulty of owning an early jersey of the player. Just was talking to Jeff about how we see tons of late Barry Larkin jerseys pop up, yet you never see a rookie jersey or any of his 1980's come about ever. It can be risky spending a premium for an unkown, but you may be getting something that will be extremely difficult to find down the road.

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely. I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above. Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.

So in other words, you are better waiting 10-20 years to buy the Tim Tebow rookie jersey for $10,000 -- assuming it would be worth that much even if he is as good as a Montana, Elway, Marino, Unitas, Bradshaw, etc.. With the market that we have today (i.e. items are much more available and more rookie jerseys in general), this would be a very stupid purchase.

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

If a player plays 10-20 years they will never make another rookie jersey. In todays flooded markets it is truly one of the areas they wont be able to make any more of. So yes i would say there would be a premium of these items.

The chances of Tem Tebow being as good as Joe Montana, John Elway, Johnny Unitas, etc. is very unlikely. I personally would never pay that much for a jersey, as I can't afford it, but even if I could I would rather put the money into proven guys like the 3 mentioned above. Look at the people that paid for Strasburg, he may never be as good as expected with the injury, but only time will tell.