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Re: The Value of Potential
This doesn't support either argument but was research on whether or not you Draft a QB in the 1st round:
Career Statistics
As the first part of the assessment, the career statistics of all top quarterbacks from the 1970 through 2006 drafts were compiled. On average, a first round quarterback played in 136 games, passed for 27,094 yards, threw 165 touchdown passes and 134 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 78.90.
Quarterbacks selected in later rounds averaged 132 games played, 24,310 passing yards, 153 touchdown passes, 113 interceptions, and a 80.65 passer rating.
Based on these results, there is little difference between the careers of a top quarterback selected in the first round and one selected later.
First rounders had slightly longer careers in terms of games played, and slightly higher production in passing yards and touchdown passes, because a first round pick is more likely to play early in his career than a later pick. For the same reason, first round picks have more interceptions and a slightly lower passer rating than later picks.
Less experienced quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions, and thus have lower passer ratings than guys who have had a little more time to learn from the sidelines.
Draft Analysis
Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.
Generally, the later a quarterback is selected in the draft, the less likely he is to reach the Pro Bowl. Second and third round selections have reached the Pro Bowl 20 percent of the time, and after that the rate drops precipitously to 10 percent or less.
A total of 77 quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have played in the Pro Bowl, of which the 31 first round picks comprise 40 percent.
Under one half of quarterbacks who have played in the Pro Bowl were first round draft picks, but the proportion of Super Bowl winners is even more in favor of first rounders.
Twenty quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have started for teams that won the Super Bowl, and of those 20, 11 were drafted in the first round. Of all quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 14 percent have started on the team that won the Super Bowl.
For quarterbacks drafted later or not at all, the rate is less than two percent.
Finally, the ultimate test of greatness is an election into the Hall of Fame. To date, nine quarterbacks who entered the league in 1970 or later have been enshrined in Canton, and three active quarterbacks (as of the 2008 season) can be considered locks for election after they retire, bringing the total to 12 current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970.
Of those 12, six were first round draft picks. Of the remainder, three were taken in the second or third round, and the rest were undrafted or drafted late.
This doesn't support either argument but was research on whether or not you Draft a QB in the 1st round:
Career Statistics
As the first part of the assessment, the career statistics of all top quarterbacks from the 1970 through 2006 drafts were compiled. On average, a first round quarterback played in 136 games, passed for 27,094 yards, threw 165 touchdown passes and 134 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 78.90.
Quarterbacks selected in later rounds averaged 132 games played, 24,310 passing yards, 153 touchdown passes, 113 interceptions, and a 80.65 passer rating.
Based on these results, there is little difference between the careers of a top quarterback selected in the first round and one selected later.
First rounders had slightly longer careers in terms of games played, and slightly higher production in passing yards and touchdown passes, because a first round pick is more likely to play early in his career than a later pick. For the same reason, first round picks have more interceptions and a slightly lower passer rating than later picks.
Less experienced quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions, and thus have lower passer ratings than guys who have had a little more time to learn from the sidelines.
Draft Analysis
Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.
Generally, the later a quarterback is selected in the draft, the less likely he is to reach the Pro Bowl. Second and third round selections have reached the Pro Bowl 20 percent of the time, and after that the rate drops precipitously to 10 percent or less.
A total of 77 quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have played in the Pro Bowl, of which the 31 first round picks comprise 40 percent.
Under one half of quarterbacks who have played in the Pro Bowl were first round draft picks, but the proportion of Super Bowl winners is even more in favor of first rounders.
Twenty quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have started for teams that won the Super Bowl, and of those 20, 11 were drafted in the first round. Of all quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 14 percent have started on the team that won the Super Bowl.
For quarterbacks drafted later or not at all, the rate is less than two percent.
Finally, the ultimate test of greatness is an election into the Hall of Fame. To date, nine quarterbacks who entered the league in 1970 or later have been enshrined in Canton, and three active quarterbacks (as of the 2008 season) can be considered locks for election after they retire, bringing the total to 12 current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970.
Of those 12, six were first round draft picks. Of the remainder, three were taken in the second or third round, and the rest were undrafted or drafted late.
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