Re: The future of collecting...
Barry,
Kobe and Joe Montana are the exception to the rule because they are superstars and will always sell well. But what about the others? I can pick out football jersey examples all day long of the "next Hall-of-Famer" that sold well at high prices only to see the value and demand plummet as their careers stalled because of injury, fading production, etc. (Terrell Davis, Dante Culpepper, and Clinton Portis quickly come to mind.)
Anyone who believes that the current game-used marketplace has not been flooded over the past decade is either a retailer trying to sell their product or else someone not completely attuned to the marketplace. Look no further than teams such as the Colorado Rockies and Dallas Cowboys who have flooded the market over the past decade. It is hard to give those jerseys away because just about everyone who ever wanted one now has one (or two, or 10 . . .) in their collection.
Do I think that common hockey jerseys currently selling for $295 to $595 will be selling for $75 to $150 in five to 10 years? I will answer that question by asking you the current value of common Philadelphia Eagles and Texas Rangers jerseys from the late 1990s to early 2000s that you sold in the $295 to $595 price range.
Things look different through the eyes of the retailer as new product is "good" and usually sells well. Older stuff is not so good unless it is a star player or something rare and unique. Anyone who doubts that should look on ebay or have a long chat with someone like me who collects older football jerseys. The stuff is cheap for the most part, often selling for much less than it did back in the day.
Barry, by no means am I attempting to be critical of you or your organization as I think that you are second to none in what you do. I just think that the market is becoming over-saturated and the signs are already out there as pointed out in my Rockies and Cowboys examples. Like Chris, I see many similarities to the card bubble, but only time will tell how it plays out.
Mark Hayne
Gridiron Exchange
gixc@verizon.net
Always looking for World Football League and Atlanta Falcons uniforms, and any Willie McGee and Darren Lewis game-used items.
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Re: The future of collecting...
Chris,
Your example, which does not mention the team to which you are referring, fails to acknowledge the supply/demand ratio.
I think if you are going to state how many jerseys were worn then and now, it's also relevant to consider how many collectors are interested in those jerseys. And what they go for.
Look at retail sales of companies like MeiGray. The top players whose jerseys are produced in greater numbers then ever before sell very well.
Compare that to how many millions of cards from the '90s that lost probably 50-70% of their initial value and sell for pennies on the dollar.
MeiGray sold eight Los Angeles Lakers game-worn Kobe Bryant jerseys this season. We sold four at retail for $7,500 within two weeks after we offered them ... after a season in which we auctioned four others earlier in the season for $10,020, $10,050, $12,020 and $8,785.
And since 2007-08, we have sold 28 Kobe Bryants. The cheapest went in auction for $6,500. All others exceeded $7,500, including home and road Finals jerseys in 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 that went for $19,040, $25,020, $35,270, $28,060, $29,520, and $20,060.
Do you think the regular-season Kobes will sell for $1,500-$3,000 in a few years? Are you telling me that legitimately authenticated Joe Montana jerseys, which probably sold for $2,000 to $3,000 in the '80s and '90s and now sell for $10,000 - $17,500, will suffer the same fate as cards in the '90s?
MeiGray in the last three seasons has sold approximately 5,000 common game-worn hockey jerseys for between $295-$595 in the last 2-3 years. Do you think that in 5-10 years those jerseys will sell in the secondary market for between $75-$150?
Again, I understand you comparing the significant increase in the numbers of available jerseys. But I believe you are ignoring the fact that the collecting base has drastically increased, as well.
And based on the sales records of companies like MeiGray, I believe that base is continuing to grow. Just watch the retail lists of the most reliable game-worn jersey companies. Jerseys are moving.
And I can also tell you from our consignment division, that MeiGray is seeing considerable movement in the secondary market. And you can ask our consignors for confirmation of that.
I don't mean for this to sound like a sales pitch. I just think it's important for all of us to take a broader look at the market when having an interesting discussion like this one.
Respectfully, BarryLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
Larry Pelloccioni - a great thread! You and I have known each other dating back to the mid-1970s when we were both chasing World Football League uniforms, so I can relate well to your thoughts. For the past several years, it seems like I end up in a discussion on this very topic with other collectors (both young and old) on an almost weekly basis.
Things have changed greatly over the years, most for the good, but I do miss the sense of camaraderie that seemed to be more prevalent back in the days when we depended on the telephone, mail, and meeting at shows as our main form of communication. I also miss the true gentlemen of the hobby who are no longer with us such as Dick Dobbins and Floyd Hartel.
I have to agree with staindsox (Chris) in his observation in comparing the over-production of jerseys to the card bubble. While I will agree with Barry Meisel that there are more game-used collectors in the hobby than there was a decade ago, Chris is on point in his post (post #22). As a dealer, I can attest that there are only so many jerseys you can sell of the same player.
Les also says it well in her last paragraph of post #25. I agree that having players wear an abundant number of each style of jersey each year is overkill, and it does indeed get old pretty quickly. I don't necessarily have the desire to be the only person in the world to own a particular collectible, but on the other hand, if there are an abundant number of that same item available for purchase, it becomes less of a collectible at that point and more of a commodity. That's part of the fun of collecting for many - to have something that is a bit unique.
As with just about everything in life, things change and you either adjust to the changes or you don't. For me, I collect game-used football jerseys. The newer stuff holds little interest to me not because I am an old-timer stuck in my ways, but simply because it is all the same (even the same manufacturer for all teams), and there seems to be a lot of it out there. Like others who have commented, where is the thrill of the chase? Making matters worse is that I find a lot of the newer stuff over-priced, especially considering the amount available.
Regardless, as long as you are having fun collecting game-used items, that's all that really matters. Once it ceases to be fun, then it's time to move on to something else that will bring you joy.
Mark Hayne
Gridiron Exchange
gixc@verizon.net
Always looking for World Football League and Atlanta Falcons uniforms, and any Willie McGee and Darren Lewis game-used items.Leave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
Thanks for the explanation, John. I now see what you mean more by the thrill of the chase; it helps to be able to relate to it personally. For me, it might mean finding that HR ball from the game I was at, buying that pair of cleats I had always found to be cool but never knew I could ever own. I get a lot of thrill out of trying to photomatch a hat or a jersey. I guess I've felt the thrill of the chase the most with photography - trying to take the "perfect" sports photo, if there is such a thing.
To be fair, I can understand not wanting there to be 6 of each style of jersey per player per year. I don't like it when a player wears a different pair of spikes each day, because each pair can be sold at a huge profit. These types of things are overkill, and that gets old pretty quickly. Or at least it did for me when I started collecting baseball cards again when I was in my early twenties. The first year was fun, but then there were so many cards and so many sets a year that I began to see my cards as little more than a marketing gimmick, a money-maker for the card companies. Now I rarely buy cards, but when I do, they are usually from a particular set or for photomatch purposes.Leave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
I agree with Barry's information about there being more collectors out there to balance out the increase in game worn items being produced.
How many times have we passed on an item in a mass auction with plans to buy it in a couple months when it gets dumped on Ebay? I know that I have and also that many of these items simply don't resurface. It's frustrating , but at the same time is a good thing.Leave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
Hey Les,
The thrill of the chase is the anticipation of finding the items that you are really looking for, and then ultimately adding them to your collection. I collect local players, who's jerseys do no pop up too often, and require a bunch of research to know just what to look for.
The best explanation for you would be some of Bagwell items that you collect. I am sure that there are many of his items that you want and are just waiting for come available. Looking for them and waiting for them to become available is the thrill of the hunt. I've seen you get frustrated on the boards before with things....but look, here you are still waiting and looking for Bagwell items.
Imagine finding a Bagwell minor league jersey from when he played in the Red Sox organization. Being able to know just what to look for in it (since there will not be any NOB), what number he was, and other specific details....that's what you learn from the fun homework of checking rosters, programs, and other old pictures. The trill of the chase is the feeling you get when you see a 1989 Winter Haven Red Sox jersey pop up on Ebay and know that it was his. The thirll is then accentuated when you win the jersey and add it to your collection. Especially when you get it for a great price because other's didn't know that it was an old Bagwell.
Hope that all helps and all the best in finding the Bagwell items you have been chasing.
JohnLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
I have to diagree Barry. This is exactly what happened with cards. The number of people buying modern cards boomed in the late 80s/early 90s. This is when grown adults entered the market. Before then, you didn't see many grown men purchasing packs or cases. If you openly admitted that you collected cards in the 70s or 80s, you would get a strange look from people. "What's wrong with this guy, is he 8 years old or something?" The card companies responded to this increase in demand by saturating the market with cards. This is exactly what teams and players are doing now. The team I follow used to issue 4 jerseys a year to all their players. Just 4 total jerseys. Now their star players receive 6 in each style...and the players have the option to order more through the manufacturer. That's at least 20-30 jerseys every single year. What if the guy plays 15-20 seasons? That is in baseball. Don't star football players get at least one new jersey every game? In some cases, every half? Overproducing to meet the increase in demand. I think it parallels perfectly.
ChrisLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
I dont know if buying a game used item for the sole purpose of "flipping" it just to make $ is called collecting. Collecting to me is having an interest in a team, player or event and buying items from whatever you are interested in for your enjoyment.
Of course I sell a shirt here and there but I dont expect to make significant $ off of these sales and I usually sell something to finance the purchase of another game used piece. I am quite happy to break even or make a few bucks if i can but I dont expect to make a living or a large profit off of any of my collection. Obviously if I purchased something 20 years ago and now the player is in the HOF, I am going to sell that at market value.
One thing that is interesting is that when someone is interested in buying a gamer that i own they are also interested in what i paid for it. What I paid 20 years ago has no bearing on its value today. The buyer in some cases seems to think that the current selling price should be close to what i paid rather than what it is really worth.
I agree with Barry in that the game used market is entirely different from the card bubble. I also think that there are shirts out there for all types of collectors. JO and other sellers have shirts reasonably priced but superstars are always gonna command big $$$$. Even from 1988-1990 Montana wore almost one shirt a game (sometimes he would wear a shirt for 2 games). This was for the sole purpose of the team selling them to finance locker and weight room improvements. Even with all of those shirts (around 50 including the playoffs and preseason) out there, his jerseys are still hard to find and expensive. There are probably more fakes than authentic shirts of his sold at auction every year.
The main reason to collect is for fun and once the fun is taken out of the equation than one must re-evaluate their goals and interest in the hobby. I love looking at my gamers and seeing things i did not notice before. Also watching a dvd of a game you have a jersey from is cool especially when a match is confirmed!
Always buying 49ers gamers and ANY 1994 9er gamer. Finders fee paid for the right shirt.
Aloha
Paul
garciajones@yahoo.comLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
Hi everybody,
Obviously I am biased because I co-own and run MeiGray, and my business is game-worn jerseys. But I have a real stake in seeing the game-worn jersey market stay healthy, and I do objectively think the comparison to the card bubble of the '90s is very flawed.
And here's why ...
Twenty to 25 years ago, as the card market had boomed in the early to mid '80s, many young collectors (myself included) started buying and hoarding baseball cards in a speculative attempt to make big money.
What happened was the card companies, recognizing the increase in their pre-season orders for cases, and wax boxes and the like, cranked out huge quantities of cards to meet this speculative demand ... without divulging these increases in card population.
What DID NOT happen was an increase in the number of collectors to balance this increase in product. And so the bubble burst when anybody with a checkbook and an attic bought the cards, but could not sell the cards at a profit a few years later.
While many people have properly noted the growth of the game-worn market in terms of number of jerseys/sets of jerseys, these same people have not acknowledged that the number of collectors interested in purchasing/trading these jerseys has grown, too.
I can speak authoritatively on the hockey and baskeball markets, since we partner with the NHL and NBA and run their Game-Worn Authentication Programs. And we keep track and publicize population reports in the NHL (with teams we have team deals), and we collect information on populations in the NBA (with teams we have team deals).
If, for example, an NHL team went from 2 sets a season in the 1990s to 4 sets a season today, the collector base would have had to double for the balance to stay the same.
And that's roughly what has happened. Our NHL collector base since 2002 has grown three-fold. Our NBA collector base has doubled since 2006. I can tell you without a doubt the ratio of collectors to jerseys has stayed fairly consistent over the last 14 years, since MeiGray has been in business.
So while it seems like jerseys are much, much more readily available now (and that is true), so too are collectors in the primary and secondary markets willing to buy.
So in my opinion, the game-worn jersey market today carries no resemblance to the card market of the '90s.
I will agree that it is not as easy to make money buying and flipping game-worn jerseys as it was 20 years ago ... but that is true of any hobby moving from a small niche market (like game-worn jerseys were in the '90s) to a robust one (like it is today) ...
Respectfully,
BarryLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
I agree 100%. Most of us here used to collect cards too, and I remember suffering through the crazy, overpriced market of the 1990s. There are so many parallels between cards and GU that it's not even funny -- the main difference is that the timelines are off by about 20 years.
I have a prediction that several of you will leave the GU hobby out of frustration over the next few years, only to come back years later when prices are more reasonable (many prices ARE reasonable right now, but not on much of the newer stuff, including minor stars and hyped prospects).
One big difference between the cards hobby and GU hobby is the number of collectors. What really cemented this in my mind is the recent availability of those newer Dallas Cowboys jerseys we've seen on eBay. Even though most jerseys are common players, where are all the fans looking to buy a unique item? 100,000 people will attend a Cowboys home game, but a GU jersey on eBay won't have any bidders at $59.95? Figure out that one.
As a huge fan of cards from the 1980s, the decade of my youth, I have gone back and purchased tons of card sets at awesome prices over the past several years. Many of them are quite scarce, believe it or not. I recently started a database of card sets from the decade, just for fun. I have not yet promoted the site because I want to add a couple hundred sets first, but here's the link if anyone wants to see: http://www.1980sportscarddatabase.comLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
If there was simply a catalog with everything in it that you wanted, how much fun would that be?Can someone please explain the thrill of the chase for me - at least as it involves sports memorabilia? If I want an item and can't get it, it becomes really frustrating. So much so that I may be dissuaded from collecting. I understand not wanting things to be mass produced, but I just can't comprehend frustration over having an easier time obtaining items.
I don't really collect much games used, because the player I collect, well, his stuff doesn't exactly fly under the radar. There's no real hunt involved, when items are on eBay or being sold by a major auction house.
I'll search for rare photos, where success may depend on how creative one can get with internet searches. It may take years to find a game photo from a specific game. I'm guessing this may have been how it used to be for GU stuff, before it was all laid out for the highest bidder.Leave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
Can someone please explain the thrill of the chase for me - at least as it involves sports memorabilia? If I want an item and can't get it, it becomes really frustrating. So much so that I may be dissuaded from collecting. I understand not wanting things to be mass produced, but I just can't comprehend frustration over having an easier time obtaining items.
Genuinely curious,
FrikLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
- Supply and demand;
- Economy; and,
- Age
Supply and Demand - Back in the day, game worn/used items were far and few. Today, "gamers" are all over the place.
Economy - Unlike our government, most of us have realized that we cannot afford to spend what we don't have then look to others for a "bailout". Most of use have learned that if the economy tanks, things get tight. We are working more hours and have less money to spend on luxury items like sports memorabilia. Before we go out and spend big money on an item, we have to think about what the future holds.
Age - I am 57 years old. Back in the day when we were kids, we could NOT even afford to buy items from the "concession" stands. A cap for $2.50 was way out of our price range. As we got older, got jobs and made a few bucks, we started to acquire items we couldn't afford as kids. The 1980's is a prime example - most of us can remember the "MAJOR" cards shows that seemed to be every weekend. Shows may not be the correct word - most shows were actually "EVENTS". Whether it was called a "show" or "event", it was a time to get out and meet and greet other hobby collectors. Today, we have eBay. To prove my point, the majority of guys I knew are out of the hobby for various reasons and I can't say how much longer I'll be in the hobby. With a large segment of baby boomers dropping out of the hobby, a large block of revenue is going with them.
With a lot of the baby boomers out of the market, its now time for the next generation to drive the market. Attitudes have changed - yes we do enjoy sports but with the rise of the internet, computer games, sports scandals and iPhones, attitudes have changed. Add-in the scars from our current economy and game used stuff all over the place, only time will tell.
Just some opinions,
Jim
flaa1a@comcast.netLeave a comment:
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Re: The future of collecting...
I'm a newbie to game used, but completely understand and agree with what happened in the 90s. I was a teenager in the 80s and remembered how much fun it was collecting and going to shows and trying to find items. I stopped collecting cards completely in about 92 because of the overproduction of cards. I stopped just when inserts were becoming popular and things were more about the bottom line than just collecting. Being older, and hoping a little wiser, I think that I can enjoy collecting game used. One thing I learned from the past was that if I want to enjoy collecting I need to have a niche and stick to it. I found myself buying way too much junk back in the 80s. I'm hoping that just collecting GU #13 will bring the joy I once had when I was a bit younger. Technology has taken away some of the hunt, but, like this forum, it brings more people together across the county. Something that was much harder to do back then. I've only been on here a couple days and it is great to see that people still collect to have fun and not just for money.Leave a comment:
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