The future of collecting...

[BarryMeisel]

Re: The future of collecting...

Mark,

Thanks for your comments, the majority of which I disagree. But I respect your opinion and views.

As a dealer, you can authoritatively speak to your sales/experiences and you can give authoritative examples of teams with which you have specific knowledge. I have never worked with the Rockies or Cowboys, so I cannot comment on whether they flooded the market.

But your examples of the Eagles and Rangers are inaccurate with regard to our discussion. We're not talking about whether a $295 jersey bought in 2001 is worth $295 today. As I understand it, we're talking about whether the market is getting flooded with inventory in today's hobby.

Neither the Eagles nor Rangers increased their inventory when working with MeiGray. In fact, in the case of the Rangers, with our authentication procedures we were able to identify a Set 3 in the early 2000s as an unworn set when in previous years they had hit the market as potential game worns.

One of the fallacies of your argument is that you fail to consider that in any hobby like ours where the supply/demand ratio is a critical component, as time marches on, the population of a team's jerseys increases.

In 2000, there were at least 1,000 (and maybe 1,500) fewer Texas Rangers jerseys than there are today because the Texas Rangers wear jerseys each year to compete in the American League. Four sets of 25 jerseys equals 1,000 more jerseys.

At 100 jerseys per year, of course the market is going to grow. That's much different than saying the market is flooded because of our hobby.

The key difference, in my opinion, between the jersey and card market is that the card manufacturers in the early '90s pumped out tons of cards without any consideration for supply/demand.

If you are saying the Colorado Rockies and Dallas Cowboys did the same, I won't argue because I did not work with them. But MeiGray has worked with the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, the Texas Rangers, as many as eight different NBA teams and as many as 22 different NHL teams.

We have shared the records of each team's inventory, and they did not markedly change in any season ... not in real numbers, and certainly not when balanced against the increase in the collecting base.

As far as what commons from 10 years ago will sell in 10 years, only time and the hobby'd development will tell. I agree that teams whose jerseys are pumped out in bloated numbers will be a problem. But for every team that did that across the four major sports, I will likely be able to point to 2-3 that have not.

Barry

[kprst6]

Re: The future of collecting...

A picture is worth a thousand words...

To me, the following picture pretty much sums up the current sports card collecting industry. It's just a bunch of people & companies set out to get rich quick that has zero integrity and one can only wonder why a person would even collect card's when you see pictures like this and card's that are completely incorrect. There's no integrity with card companies, no accountability, no quality control, and strictly an agenda to make the most money possible. The talk should be about the sports card industry being ready to "bust" again. Charging $500.00 for a box of 4 card's that have fake patches, zero proof of authenticity (other than the card companies word), and taped on signatures can't be anywhere close to being worth the retail price. In Pittsburgh, Max Talbot charges $40.00 for his signature (which is ridiculous). I believe the last signing had 500+ fans. A card dealer was selling 1/999 signed Talbot cards for $8.00 (I offered $5.00 after the signing and the dealer said I was the only sale of the day) and shows how most card's are worth next to nothing.

http://cgi.ebay.com/2011-Topps-Rising-Rookies-Mark-Ingram-Patch-Card-Error-/270787285320?pt=US_Football&hash=item3f0c2e1148

http://cgi.ebay.com/2011-Topps-RR-Mike-Pouncey-Team-Logo-RC-ERROR-Card-MP-/360382073126?pt=US_Football&hash=item53e8720926

[Tedw9]

Re: The future of collecting...

Excellent thread!

Here are a couple of random thoughts, directed at no one, that have come into my head after reading through this.


One difference between the card boom of the 90's and today's game used is that back in the 80's-90's, people would buy blocks of 1000 of a players card to resell later for a profit. Then when every Tom, Dick and Harry pulled out the same rookie cards of the same player and tried to sell them at the same time, that, along with overproduction, flooded the market. Is it really possible we have a few "collector/investors" out there buying up all the star jerseys of one player in hopes of flipping them later for a profit, like card collectors used to do? Wouldn't we, as a community, notice this? If we know team XYZ is releasing all their jerseys and team star Joe Blow's jerseys are not to be found, wouldn't this raise a red flag with the community?

The other thought I had is the collector to collectible ratio. I can see how the overproduction of 80's-90's cards would flood the market. There could very well be 10 million Fleer Shaq rookies out there, but are there really 10 million collectors wanting one in their collections? I realize the number of game used collectors is much smaller, but using Barry's numbers, 1000 game used Rangers jerseys over 10 YEARS seems like such a small amount compared to the 10 million cards. I would like to think that over a 10 year period there would be WAY more than 1000 people wanting to add a Rangers game used jersey to their collections.

I don't think there could ever be enough game used items out there to ever totally tank the hobby. The only way I would think that could happen is if players started wearing a new jersey EVERY game, which I don't ever see happening. Even bats, which are much easier to acquire and out number jerseys, hold their value pretty well.

And if the value goes down, so be it. I'll still love my game used items and hopefully folks who don't collect will start, because they can afford to. I think it's our responsibility to recruit, educate and encourage new collectors to join our hobby.

[brewcrew]

Re: The future of collecting...

Huge cosign as to the quality of this thread and the interesting points this discussion raises. Here are my observations, as a relative newbie:

1. I collected baseball cards back in the day. Of course, I held on to most of them hoping that someday they'd be worth some coin. Alas, it was for naught. I ended up trading a bunch to a guy who is trying to collect complete Topps sets from the late 1980s, and I auctioned off a bunch of them on this free website I joined called Listia (a good place to get free baseball cards, if you're like me and you don't want to pay for them). Even today's baseball cards are probably overvalued. There's no way I'd pay some of the prices that dealers are asking on eBay, unless it's something that's really necessary for my collection.

2. I used to be big into authentic jerseys and replicas. I've sold most of them off to pay for my recent foray into GU items. There's still a big market for those as well, as many of you know. This leads me to believe that there will always be people out there willing to pay more than you think for a given item. I've sold several of my authentics at a profit so that I could buy game used items for less. Go figure.

3. I went into this knowing that I'd be able to pick some stuff up on the cheap, and that I'd have to shell out more for other items. I haven't picked up anything too high-end save for a couple of Rickie Weeks game used pieces. And I know that I'll probably never get back what I paid for them. Do I care? Not really. Although I plan on insuring my collection at some point, I don't think that it's something that's going to, say, fund my retirement when the time comes. It's something that's fun for me and something that brings me closer to the game. Perhaps it's a bigger concern for those who have major $$ tied up in their collections.

4. It seems to me that as the game used industry is expanding, so is the market - as witnessed by those of us who join this board on a daily basis. I don't think there's a fair comparison between baseball cards and game used items. Even if (as a previous poster stated) a team produces 162 jerseys a year for a given player, you still won't see the oversaturation in the market that you did with baseball cards in the late 1980s and early 1990s. That was straight-up ridiculous.

[G1X]

Re: The future of collecting...

Barry,

You stated that one of the fallacies of my argument is that I failed to consider that in any hobby like ours where the supply/demand ratio is a critical component, as time marches on, the population of a team's jerseys increases. Of course I considered it - that is precisely my point and one of the reasons I feel that the market is quickly becoming over-saturated with certain teams.

When teams such as the Cowboys and Rockies do not change styles and keep pumping jerseys into the marketplace each year - regardless of whether it is 3 sets or 30 - the market will eventually become over-saturated. You don't have to have a working relationship with these teams to see it, nor even a dealer for that matter, as most savy collectors figured this out a long time ago.

As for the Eagles/Texas Rangers example, perhaps we are looking at this a bit differently. You specifically asked Chris if he really thought that a common hockey jersey that you are currently selling for $295 to $595 would only garner $75 to $150 in five-to-10 years down the road. I answered that question by using your Texas Rangers and Eagles as examples (I could use many other examples including teams I have sold over the years). Common jerseys - as do most jerseys including some stars - tend to devalue over the years. There are different factors for this (which is worthy of another thread), but one thing that seems to always be in the mix is that supply outstrips demand.

Perhaps we disagree more on semantics with regards to flooding the market. You feel that a team putting out a few sets each year is not flooding the market, and I agree on a short-term basis. However, on a long-term basis - if the team does not change styles - it will eventually create a problem because of the accumulative effect. While I will wholeheartedly agree that the interest in collecting game-used has greatly increased over the years, I still do not think that the hobby can support the number of jerseys being made available over the long run. The secondary market, especially ebay and even on GUU, tends to bear this out.

One issue we definitely agree on is that that teams whose jerseys are pumped out in bloated numbers will be a problem. (In some cases, it already is a problem.) Some might not see over-saturation as being a problem. However, when the day comes when you need to sell that jersey and there is no market for it, you will quickly see the problem.

Mark Hayne
Gridiron Exchange
gixc@verizon.net

Always looking for World Football League and Atlanta Falcons uniforms, and any Willie McGee and Darren Lewis game-used items.

[BarryMeisel]

Re: The future of collecting...

Mark,

So since I think we would both agree that teams are going to keep playing games, and they are going to keep wearing jerseys, the hobby will determine if the market is flooded by the following:

Are there enough collectors to buy and sell and keep the secondary market healthy for years to come?

I believe the answer is based on proper authentication of inventory (to ensure that 100 percent of the product is legit, something that was a major problem and is still, in a pocket of cases, a potential problem), teams not creating excessive inventory just to meet current demand (without regard to the future secondary market), and the diversity of those sets.

One thing we have not discussed is the diversity, and you just alluded to it in your last post. One legit variable on teams that sell well vs. teams that sell poorly is an array of styles, and an array of players. We have found that certain markets sell better than others because the players change often. This might not translate to a team's on-field success, but we have found collectors love it when new players arrive. It means more players to collect.

Finally, I think we would all agree that we all can help the hobby by properly authenticating and marketing. We have found that collectors enjoy knowing exactly when and where jerseys are worn. That's something that did not exist 10-20 years ago, and we have found that a large segment of collectors who might not be hardcore collectors have joined the hobby because they can confidently purchase a jersey from a game they attended, or a moment they cherished for whatever reason.

All the best, Barry

[otismalibu]

Re: The future of collecting...

Not a comment on the supply/demand aspect of jerseys/cards, but...

Game worn jerseys seem to parallel what the card companies started doing a few years back. With cards, it's always the creation of rarity. Number it. Then make a signed version. Then make a signed version with a swatch. Then one only numbered to 100 or 50 or 10. Alternates, Latin Night, Winter Classic, etc. are the chase cards. Along with Finals jerseys, ones with special patches, etc.

What if Meigray took 24 Kobe jerseys from a certain season and had him sign and number each jersey /24? Maybe have special tagging and a fancy COA. Bet those would sell for more and I bet that #1, #8 and #24 would would be in high demand. Like the card companies, this could be done every year for dozens of players.

Even the Meigray grab bag (not sure if they still do this) looks very much like the cracking of boxes.

I don't know how the card companies as a whole are making out, but I still see some pretty big money being spent on the chase cards.

[frikativ54]

Re: The future of collecting...

Alternates, Latin Night, Winter Classic, etc. are the chase cards. Along with Finals jerseys, ones with special patches, etc.

I totally see this. Sometimes I wonder if the Turn Back the Clock/one night promo items are just glorified money-makers. I've never been attracted to the TBTC items, but they sure command a pretty penny in auctions.

[staindsox]

Re: The future of collecting...

You specifically asked Chris if he really thought that a common hockey jersey that you are currently selling for $295 to $595 would only garner $75 to $150 in five-to-10 years down the road.

That is exactly what I believe.

Also, looking at superstars, take Kobe.

1) If he suffered a career-ending injury tomorrow, the values on his game used stuff would severely drop. Kobe is expected to put up monster career numbers. If he doesn't put up those all-time caliber numbers, his jerseys won't pull $6k.

2) If he does play another 10 years, there will be some many Kobe gamers out there at that point, you won't get $6k a jersey.

The same goes for for stuff like A-Rod and Jeter bats. Prices have already dropped a ton from a few years ago and I am certain they will continue to follow that pattern. Every bat players are shipped is saved, signed, and stamped with a COA sticker, and added to a Steiner stockpile.

That is my take on a flooded market. I guess we have to agree to disagree.

Chris

[mad87man]

Re: The future of collecting...

I think signed stuff isn't good b/c like me there are collectors out there who don't collect Game used and signed. I mean it might but i don't know. I think one thing that affects the hobby now is how often players switch teams. Not many players stick with the same team like in years past.

[Jules9]

Re: The future of collecting...

The gameworn community reminds me of the housing market.

Ten years ago a house cost $225,000...5 years ago a house cost $505,000...so lets build more houses and more houses cause in ten years these houses have to be worth $1 million dollars. Today the house sells for $430,000


I hope I'm wrong but I doubt a $595 Riley Cote jersey will increase in price but hey you never know.

[calgrad1999]

Re: The future of collecting...

Interesting Topic - Thought I'd give me 2 cents

I collected cards in the 80s, which was obviously well before the internet/ebay availability boom. The primary way to obtain items was to buy cards at grocery stores, buy/trade with friends, and by going to card shops/shows. I can only imagine how limited the game used hobby was back in the 80s-90s. I'm sure I would have bought a number of suboptimal pieces that didn't really fit my needs, but allowed me to continue collecting.

I think HOFer's, players with cult followings, popular players will tend to hold their values well, if not appreciate, even if the supply of their pieces are relatively available. In terms of run of the mill sports memorabilia, once a player retires, and is out of the spotlight for awhile, unless he's a HOF'er/or items are limited, tend to depreciate significantly. To some extent, I think you see this with a number of run of the mill common player jerseys/game used memorabilia as well as some semistars/stars that didn't have a robust following.

There are a number of big dealers who charge $300-750 for a common player's jersey. Quite often when the original buyer goes to sell the piece, they might get $150-250 if that for it. The dealer's pricepoint is so high, no matter what the supply or demand for the player/piece is, it's impossible to get your money back. Ultimately this could lead to more of a revision to the mean in the future, where dealers might need to lower their prices in the future to keep "burned" collectors interested.

Another point I think that's worth considering is that professional sports' popularity is relatively high at this point in time, which I think boosts the value of complimentary goods, such as game used memorabilia. If the popularity wanes, or if society begins to look more to other avenues for collecting/entainment, become disillusioned with sports, etc - this could really hurt the business and drive prices down.

In a nutshell, like everything else, stocks, real estate, commodities, etc, the price point where you get in is vital in terms of retaining value, making money etc. If you do overpay for an item, you'd better like it or you might be wearing it.

[commando]

Re: The future of collecting...

GUU's own Classifieds section is a good example of what's happening these days in the hobby (at least for items $500 and less). Some items get snapped up right away, so you know it was a good day for both the buyer and seller, who probably collects that particular player or team. Other items sit there for a while, then the seller drops the price to entice the casual collectors or bargain hunters.

All things considered, it seems to me like the newer, authenticated "common" items are usually sold for a loss. How many people are looking to buy an authenticated GU baseball from a typical game, thrown by an average pitcher and/or hit by an average batter? In my opinion, common authenticated baseballs are probably the worst investment in the hobby (if we must talk dollars).

Common player jerseys also have trouble selling for their original team-direct dealer prices, because there is no bidding war between two or more interested parties. Believe me, I understand that when a team-direct dealer sells a common jersey for $250, he is not making a $250 profit. But the fact still remains that the market is very soft for common jerseys worn since 2000.

My definition of a "common" jersey is a style that was released in any reasonable quantity. There are no common Steelers jerseys, regardless of the player. The Cowboys, on the other hand....