Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

[kingjammy24]

economy's going down the terlit. credit has been strangled. unemployment and inflation are up. foreclosures are way up. you'd think that this would all result in an abundance of game-used items coming to market from private collections compelled to liquidate. is anyone seeing this? i'm not and it surprises me. supply wise, it seems like ebay and auction houses are carrying the usual stuff they've been carrying for years. no great explosion of collections flooding the market.

rudy.

[zookerman182]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

it actually seems like there is less and less quality stuff showing up on ebay. I dont know why this is but i havent been able to find anything worth buying on ebay in quite sometime.

[kneerat]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I agree.

[lund6771]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

economy's going down the terlit. credit has been strangled. unemployment and inflation are up. foreclosures are way up. you'd think that this would all result in an abundance of game-used items coming to market from private collections compelled to liquidate. is anyone seeing this? i'm not and it surprises me. supply wise, it seems like ebay and auction houses are carrying the usual stuff they've been carrying for years. no great explosion of collections flooding the market.

rudy.

I've been waiting for a couple of items for 5-7 years...I thought for sure I'd be seeing them by now...and they're not THAT rare...

[karamaxjoe]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I would guess now's not the time to sell since everyone is wathing their budgets more and the shill bidding investigation is in full swing. Auction prices from the last Mastro auction were not very good and I don't see them getting much better soon.

On the other hand hopefully today's market disaster will force some guys to unload some good stuff.

[corsairs22]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

Yes, people have been holding on to their stuff, recognizing that the market is softening. While some may have been hurt by the economy in the past few months, it looks like the worst is yet to come. So maybe some a few Holy Grails will come up for sale-- although I would regret acquiring mine under such circumstances.

[kingjammy24]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I would guess now's not the time to sell since everyone is wathing their budgets more and the shill bidding investigation is in full swing. Auction prices from the last Mastro auction were not very good and I don't see them getting much better soon.

On the other hand hopefully today's market disaster will force some guys to unload some good stuff.

hi mike

i agree that we're in a time when discretionary spending is down so it's a less-than-ideal time to sell. however, i'm not talking about folks who sell simply to capitalize on high prices; folks who have the option of not selling. i'm talking about folks being forced to sell due to resetting mortgages, diminishing credit, job loss, foreclosure, stock plunges. how have we had record numbers of foreclosures and yet i haven't seen waves of great collections come on to the market? are collectors immune to foreclosure? are we all sitting in nice 30-year fixeds with comfy payments? how many americans subsist on lines of credit? none of those folks collect? the dow plunged almost 800 pts today. a whole wack of people just lost a whole wack of money. ebay offerings aren't any different than they've been for the past 4 yrs. i'm not talking about one or two pieces. i'm expecting to see huge lifetime collections hit the market. this could turn into one of the greatest buying opportunities in the past few decades.

i'm guessing those folks seeking to liquidate asap are going to use ebay and not wait around for an auction house to start an auction in X months and then pay them in X more months. i think ebay will likely see a boon from tough economic times. yet i, and apparently others, still aren't seeing it. maybe people would rather lose their home or savings than their jorge posada gamer

rudy.

[yanks12025]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

Yeah the market is alittle low right now. When ever i have some money to spend, nothing shows up on ebay.

[staindsox]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

It will eventually translate. "Regular folks" aren't immediately hurt by Wall Street falling apart. Your average Joe doesn't sweat a diverse portfolio because they don't have one. If anything, they have 401k and they shouldn't be sweating that unless retirement is a few years down the road. Big business is taking the hit. Once they take a look at next quater's forecast, drastic actions like downsizing become the most viable option. That is where middle American is going to really get hit. It may take several months, but it is coming. If you're not one of the unfortunate victims, I'm sure there will be plenty of purchasing opportunities.

Chris

[Spiezio23]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I would also think that those holding such nice items are realizing the game used market is low for many reasons and don't want to sell low. They hold out until the market goes back up.

[Birdbats]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I'm certainly not a financial expert, but in terms of GU items, I'm not surprised there are more buyers than sellers. While my modest investment portfolio continues to dwindle, my bats and jerseys are holding their value just fine. If I had an extra $5K burning a hole in my pocket, I'd invest in bats or jerseys before I'd put it in the market, real estate, etc.

For every item I see sell for less than I thought it would, I see another sell for more (I still get outbid constantly on eBay). Maybe the hobby is protected by supply and demand -- great items continue to be squirreled away in collections or cut into pieces by card companies. If the supply of desirable stuff is falling and demand is increasing (because memorabilia is viewed as a relatively stable investment), prices should hold up. Maybe memorabilia is more like precious metals, which are skyrocketing. The difference is that most people have something gold they can sell; your average Joe on the street doesn't have a GU bat or jersey to sell.

I've seen two great Cardinals bat collections hit the market the past couple of weeks. Not sure what circumstances led to it -- could be financial, could simply an exercise in thinning the herd. Whatever the reason, there was no lack of interest in either collection.

[metsbats]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

I agree with Jeff and Chris. I think the collector's disposable income is invested in memorabilia rather than the stock market which is why most are insulated for the time being from the collapse of the financial markets. I work for a financial firm who thankfully was not greedy and avoided the temptation to dive deeply into the subprime market. I've worked on Wall Street for over 20 years and other than my 401Ks, some company stock, and a couple of mutual funds have not invested in much stocks or mutual funds. Most of my disposable income went into the hobby in the form of game used memorabilia.

Another thing which was brought up is supply and demand. With many firms with outstanding shares in the millions there are much more shares of stock out there than sports memorabilia. Also if a company goes down much more people are disposing of the millions of shares of stock verses the limited number of game used items of a particular player. This is the reason why certain sports memorabilia will retain its value.

Regarding Rudy's post most of the folks who fell victim to the subprime loans were people who probably had no disposable income to invest or buy sports memorabilia let alone a house. Most of the subprime borrowers were people of modest incomes who were convinced that their $30,000 a year salary could buy them a $600,000 house if they took out these exotic loans. I seriously doubt these subprime borrowers were stashing away sports memorabilia and building game used collections prior to getting their subprime mortgages.

David

[scottanservitz]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

Birdbats,
I totally agree with you! Quality items are holding their own in the terms of the market. I think it is true with vintage cards as well. You just can't steal good stuff. Look at the prices high end tobacco cards and caramel cards are bringing. I think that there will always be collectors with deep pockets who want the stuff. Same as well with game used stuff. If you think you can steal a nice old Mantle gamer or a Sayers jersey you can't. First of all, rarity can't be measured by the economy. Look at some of the prices these things are bringing. Even high end modern stuff is still getting good money. I think that sports is a release to us with the economy suffering. NFL stadiums are still full on Sundays. Those tickets aren't cheap. The MLB parks will be full for the playoffs. Our society, even with all the complaining about high player salaries still thrives on sports. It really does intrigue me. I too have been watching stuff on eBay and in auctions waiting to pick up some items on my want list. They always end at a level where I just can't pull the trigger. Oh well, I guess I will keep on trying. Good luck to everyone else competing against those of us trying to steal one!

Scott

[kingjammy24]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

great to see a good discussion going. lots of interesting points made.
dave grob chimed in here:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/426247/message/1222735869/Markets+and+Memorabillia

i think it's interesting because all of us can only give conjecture given that we haven't gone through an economic mess of this magnitude since the '30s.

again, i want to be clear that i'm not talking about why people aren't choosing to sell but rather why they aren't being forced to sell. obviously noone wants to sell when the market is low but when push comes to shove you often don't have a choice and i reckoned that plenty of people are being shoved right now.

dave g. brings up an interesting point about the emotional nature of game-used collections. that is, that people would rather liquidate everything else first than meaningful items they've spent decades acquiring. i'll agree with that.

jeff birdbats: items hold their value. ok i agree. still, this doesn't answer why items aren't appearing. you mentioned that "supply is falling" and "great items continue to be squirreled away in collections". my question is why aren't these items being forced out by the current economic woes?

david louie: interesting points. i think certain sectors of the economy and certain parts of the country are definitely harder hit than others. i don't know what the average joe's exposure to the market is but i suspect it may be greater than you indicate. many employees in public companies are heavily invested in their own companies stock. a lot of average joes like to play daytrader on scottrade or e-trade. do most collectors have the majority of their assets tied up in their collections? i honestly don't know. if they do, then it certainly would shield them from the market as you say. my small collection reflects about 1/100th of my assets. as for the subprime mess, as you know it's now gone into the alt-a segment. as well, in southern california, i'm seeing $mm foreclosures. who needs disposable income? folks financed their lives like they financed their homes. in FL, NV, and CA especially many lived by continually squeezing the equity out of their homes like some sort of magical orange. they lived on lines of credit and credit cards. if they financed their homes, then they could've easily financed their game-used collections. what's $7k on a Ripken gamer when you've just squeezed $40k in "fun money" from your home equity? the subprime mess is only one part of the whole fiasco. ARMs are resetting, rates are up, and many, including the primes, have squeezed so much equity out during the good times that they're now upside-down given the declining home values. i understand that some parts of the country are being much harder hit in this respect than others. perhaps the majority of collections up for sale will come from CA, NV, and FL.
interesting to hear everyone's viewpoints. i think i'll be the contrarian here and say that once the shoving gets even harder, we will see collections come up for sale greater than the normal pace. i agree with chris in saying that the shoving apparently hasn't been hard enough yet. the credit and stock woes are hitting large and small businesses alike and that's going to result in rising unemployment. from what i gather most in this thread don't believe we'll see an outpouring of collections hit the market. my forecast is for the outpouring to start Q1 '09. should be interesting!

rudy.

[kingjammy24]

Re: Economy in flames: Where's all the stuff?

many average joe collectors may not be affected by the stock market but their employers are. unemployment rate will undoubtedly be increasing in the next 3 quarters as small and large business alike grapple with decrease consumer spending, decreased credit, and decreased revenues. i'd think unemployment would push hard enough to drive some collections out.

d. bushing has also posted on this interesting matter:
http://www.network54.com/Forum/42624...Is+market+soft-
i'll concur that the $80k+ individual pieces will likely not be affected. i believe the biggest hits will come in the $10k and under pieces/collections.

as dave b. said, we'll see how this plays out eventually. many folks believe the start of 2009 will be brutal. i maintain it'll be pushing collections out to market at a faster-than-normal pace.

rudy.