Who's more of a risk to collect?

[Slugger33]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

JUST COLLECT CANSECO!! he is the most entertaining individual from MLB not to mention the STEROID ERA!! He will always be remembered good or bad!! He is in to movies, boxing, MMA, television you name it so his name is very well known throughout the world. check out his new website!!

www.canseco33.webs.com

[brianborsch]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

But regardless of cumulative numbers, Ichiro will be considered one of the greats amongst Gwynn and definitely above Boggs. Hitting over .300 and getting at least 200 hits per season for 8 years straight is something only 1 other player did in the last 108 years! And that player was one of the best hitters considering his batting eye and bat control. What to speak of his 262 hit season! Sure, he may not get to 3,000 hits, but he will break 2,000 and will be a first ballot HOFer for sure. If you factor his japan numbers, he should finish with more hits than Rose as well. Who knows. Maybe he will play for a long time more. He certainly takes care of himself.

[KrAzY3]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

I hear what you say about Hamilton and Pujols. But why not Ichiro?

I could be way off base in regard to memorabilia collecting since he's very popular in Japan, but in terms of America I don't see him as sustaining popularity. He seems to have peaked at 30 (to be expected) and last year his slugging percentage fell below .400. Even with his late start, I expect him to clear 2,000 hits but I think his average probably ends up around .320 and his totals won't put him in the same conversation as guys like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn.

This is all from the cautious collector viewpoint. If you collect a guy because you like him a lot, great! But if you are wary of losing value, I think you have to look at things like age when deciding what a player will accomplish. There are some players with shortened careers who have kept up their popularity for various reasons (Kirby Puckett, Sandy Koufax, Thurman Munson and Jackie Robinson come to mind) but the list of former superstars who are now overlooked is much longer. Albert Belle and Mo Vaughn are great examples of players that put up great numbers but had shortened careers. How memorable are they? Jose Canseco used to be one of, if not the most popular players and now he's best known for his tell all books. Daryll Strawberry, Fernando Valenzuela, Eric Davis, Doc Gooden, etc... One of the most common problems is not that they don't have excellent numbers, many of those guys do have very good career averages, they just couldn't sustain it for long enough due to various reasons.

So, when you look at a guy it isn't just how great he was for a short period of time, it is how great can he be over a long period of time? To provide a example, if Mark Prior returns this year he's about the age Josh Hamilton is and Ichiro was when he made it to the majors. He already feels pretty washed up doesn't he? Another example is Cal Ripken Jr. Bit by bit what he did in his career really isn't all that spectacular. It's the body of work that helps made him one of the most popular baseball players alive.

I could just be speaking from lack of knowledge though. For all I know Fernando's stuff fetches as much as Greg Maddux but from my knowledge of the card collecting side of things there's not much of a comparison.

[brianborsch]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

I hear what you say about Hamilton and Pujols. But why not Ichiro? I mean he certainly is not juicing and he produces in huge quantities every year. In fact he would be a good one (but expensive) to collect as this year he has a chance (yet again) to do something no one else has been able to do:

Collect 200 hits and hit over .300 for 9 consecustive seasons, breaking Wee Willie Keeler's record of 108 years! Sure, he could get injured before that and end his career, but this is as close as you can get to greatness.

I think Ichiro is a valid one to collect, as long as your pocketbook is big enough!

[KrAzY3]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Any player who is one of the most popular becomes a huge risk. He might not even have to slow down his production or get in any sort of trouble. People might simply become bored.

Josh took years off of his baseball career. That's never a good thing. Drug risks aside, Josh Hamilton is 28 and his production is down. It's not a good time to jump on board because he's regained popularity but there is absolutely nothing to indicate his career numbers will be that impressive. Pujols is one year older, but his numbers are incredibly far ahead. However, Pujols is so popular that he has to carry a huge risk. Steroids? Serious injury? A lot of things could happen and he could take a huge tumble.

To me, the guys to collect (if you really are concerned about risk) are the ones flying under the radar. Look at the numbers and try to pick out the guys who started their careers early (no guys like Ichiro) and whose numbers seem to exceed their value.

I haven't been able to get involved in Game Used collecting (unless those evil cards with cut up jerseys count...) but I have been involved in card collecting. People are always into something new and flashy. To me the key to keeping the risk out of your collection is to not buy blindly into hype and just be logical. A guy who is almost 30 can't have a great career if he's just getting started...

[geoff]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

I hope Vlad does not also because I spent alot on a Game Used Bat a few Years back.

[dirtyla2000]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

There is no proof,Vladdy took a beating here in MONTREAL on the Big O s artificial turf otherwise known as cement,so I think its taking its toll! He was an offensive machine when he was a skinny kid! We also killed Dawsons knees in MTL.Vladdy still has a chance to beat Gehrigs record for most consecutive .300 and over 25 hr seaons!

[spartakid]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Whay would you say that Vlad used drugs? Just because a player puts up good (not astounding) numbers it does not mean that he is/was using. He is around 34/35, so that is the age when players tend to loose their power. Vlad is a big guy, but not ripped like Bonds/Mac/Canseco/Sosa/Ramirez, so it would be unfair to place a cloud over him. Before you ask, I am NOT an Angels fan. Can't stand them!

Just a word on the "top" players. I think we can rule Jeter out of the steroid mix. His build has not changed over the years; just a little more puppy fat as one ages. Same with his production, which has remained steady.

One last point. We should not bemoan players who used PEDs BEFORE they were banned in baseball. They were not doing anything illegal WITHIN baseball. It is the fault of MLB for being so, well, lazy. Players caught using after the ban, should be thrown out for good. There are lifetime bans in other sports. If not lifetime, at the very least several seasons.

Just my thoughts.

I don't have any proof, but I just think he did, I know it's natural for players' numbers to decline with age, but there's just something about it.... Again, i was planning on getting his bat, and I still hope I'm wrong, I don't want to see another big name get implicated, but I would be willing to bet money that he did juice in the past (if not now as well) It's a shame, but it's definitely too big a liability for me to get his bat at the moment because I think it's just a matter of time... Ricardo

[joelsabi]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Vladi is a much bigger risk. I remember reading that he was close to the "trainer" that supplied Arod. I dont believe he's on them anymore, but he could get busted in the future if his name is on the secret list.

I'm sure Ortiz juiced. His numbers with the Twins were far from great, and once he got to Boston they improved dramatically. I believe Pujols is clean, there was an article in SI a month or two ago, and he talked about playing under suspicion and he would gladly be tested 7 days a week.

Jeter, Griffey, Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Frank Thomas, all clean

here is the article.

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1153053/index.htm

[GoTigers]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Vladi is a much bigger risk. I remember reading that he was close to the "trainer" that supplied Arod. I dont believe he's on them anymore, but he could get busted in the future if his name is on the secret list.

I'm sure Ortiz juiced. His numbers with the Twins were far from great, and once he got to Boston they improved dramatically. I believe Pujols is clean, there was an article in SI a month or two ago, and he talked about playing under suspicion and he would gladly be tested 7 days a week.

Jeter, Griffey, Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Ichiro, Frank Thomas, all clean

[joelsabi]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Brian, I'll post the same response I just made in another thread, with apologies to anyone who read it already.

To his credit, Pujols answers to a higher authority than Bud Selig:

http://www.pujolsfamilyfoundation.org/faith.htm

If Pujols were ever shown to have juiced, for many of his fans (myself included) it would be tremendously sad and disheartening for reasons that have nothing to do with baseball...

My bigger concern in regards to collecting Pujols is the risk of injury e.g. known issues with his elbow and plantar fasciitis.

That said, I wouldn't discourage you from taking the chance. Owning a piece of Pujols' memorabilia, in some sense, gives you a personal stake in his career. It certainly adds to the excitement when he performs his heroics, at least it has for me.

Rick
rickjlucas@gmail.com

great post. thanks

[rj_lucas]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Brian, I'll post the same response I just made in another thread, with apologies to anyone who read it already.

To his credit, Pujols answers to a higher authority than Bud Selig:

http://www.pujolsfamilyfoundation.org/faith.htm

If Pujols were ever shown to have juiced, for many of his fans (myself included) it would be tremendously sad and disheartening for reasons that have nothing to do with baseball...

My bigger concern in regards to collecting Pujols is the risk of injury e.g. known issues with his elbow and plantar fasciitis.

That said, I wouldn't discourage you from taking the chance. Owning a piece of Pujols' memorabilia, in some sense, gives you a personal stake in his career. It certainly adds to the excitement when he performs his heroics, at least it has for me.

Rick
rickjlucas@gmail.com

[AWA85]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Not even close:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353998,00.html

I agree, that would be a little more risky!

[suicide_squeeze]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Pujols is unreal......so far and away a better hitter than ......well, anybody in the game NOT on PED's.

So yeah, there is risk.

If I were Albert and I were clean, I'd ask to be tested once weekly to remove ANY doubt, and to protect his legacy. He is so far and away the greatest hitter in this era, that he would be a fool....if he is clean......to risk any chance of having himself lowered to the "guilt by association" classification.

Josh Hamilton, because of his late start, will probably never make it to the stardom of a Hall of Famer. That said, his stuff is desireable because he for SURE is clean, and he is a major talent in the game. Plus, there is the fan-favorite part of it. You can't help but pull for a guy who has sunken to the depths of hell, only to resurect himself as a player by working hard to right his wrongs, to overcome his own deficiencies as a human being. It's a feel-good story in sports, and he has earned my respect for what he has been able to overcome. I would love to own one of his gamers (bats) somewhere down the road. Hopefully he will start pulling aside his home run bats, inscribe them, and get a marketing manager to sell them to us in the hobby.

[both-teams-played-hard]

Re: Who's more of a risk to collect?

Not even close:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353998,00.html