Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

[Chris78]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Bagwell and Raines need about 75% for the remaining 250 voters and I do not believe it will happen, but we will see. Prior to the votes being released, I felt both needed at least 65% to have a chance in 2017 and I feel that will happen.

It does appear very likely that Piazza will make it and both Trammell and McGwire will fall off the ballot so that creates 3 more spaces that have been on past ballots. Trevor Hoffman will be on the ballot next year and Billy Wagner should receive 5%. I believe Jim Edmonds will not make 5% and Garciaparra will be off as well. I think Sammy Sosa will get 5%, but it will be close.

[gorilla777]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

At 194 public ballots, which is 43% of the total - Junior is still 100%, Piazza 86%, then Raines and Bagwell at 76.3% and 76.8%.
They might end up just short, because the non-public ballots are all the light voters, agenda pushing, grudge holding guys, so they don't want to get publicly shamed and flogged.

[Chris78]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Based on the 171 ballots that have been released, here are the percentage results thus far:


Ken Griffey Jr. 100%
Mike Piazza 86.0%
Jeff Bagwell 79.5%
Tim Raines 77.8%
Trevor Hoffman 62.6%
Curt Schilling 57.9%
Mike Mussina 52.0%
Barry Bonds 49.7%
Roger Clemens 49.1%
Edgar Martinez 46.2%
Alan Trammell 46.8%
Lee Smith 29.8%
Fred McGriff 18.7%
Jeff Kent 17.5%
Mark McGwire 14.0%
Larry Walker 14.0%
Gary Sheffield 10.5%
Billy Wagner 9.4%
Sammy Sosa 8.8%
Jim Edmonds 2.3%
Nomar Garciaparra 0.6%
Garret Anderson 0.6%

None of the 0 vote candidates from above have received a vote. Final election results will be announced tomorrow.

[Chris78]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

It is looking to be very close for both Bagwell and Raines. Last year on the "% on Public Ballots" for Bagwell was 60.73% and for Raines was 60.42%, so they are trending about 20% higher. If the 20% holds true, that would put them at the 75% area since Bagwell had 55.7% and Raines had 55% last year on the final official ballot. I know both candidates did not fare as well on the private ballots, but the first-time candidates were much stronger last year than this year as well. I am also feeling very confident that Mike Piazza will make it this year and probably will be in the 80-85% range.

[CampWest]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Here is the Excel sheet I've been tracking with public votes, updated frequently:
(they should make them all public, IMO)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

Ben

Agreed!

Thanks for sharing.

Here's to hoping that Bagwell stays up there. I think it is going to be close, but my gut is that he's going to come up a couple percent short - 70-72% range. If so, then hopefully he can pick up a few more percent in 2016 and get in.

[gorilla777]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Here is the Excel sheet I've been tracking with public votes, updated frequently:
(they should make them all public, IMO)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

Ben

[ndevlin]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

That's a pretty good assessment. I would say that Raines will come up just short this year, but you never know.

[Chris78]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Here some points I am seeing with this year's ballot:

1) My personal prediction is that both Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza will make it this year.

2) I believe both Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines may make it this year as well, with Bagwell having the better chance. If they do not make it this year, they are in the driver's seat for next year.

3) Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina are setting themselves up for a future induction.

4) Trevor Hoffman will not make it this year, but has a great chance next year.

5) Alan Trammell is having a nice send-off for the Veteran's Committee.

6) Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are gaining support for a future induction.

7) Edgar Martinez is gaining, but will it be enough.

8) Lee Smith will be a Veteran's Committee send-off next year.

9) For his last appearance on the ballot, Mark McGwire has poor support.

[Chris78]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

Based on the 128 ballots that have been released, here are the percentage results thus far:


Ken Griffey Jr. 100%
Mike Piazza 89.8%
Jeff Bagwell 83.6%
Tim Raines 80.5%
Trevor Hoffman 63.3%
Curt Schilling 61.7%
Mike Mussina 56.3%
Barry Bonds 51.6%
Roger Clemens 50.8%
Edgar Martinez 49.2%
Alan Trammell 47.7%
Lee Smith 29.7%
Fred McGriff 18.8%
Mark McGwire 14.8%
Jeff Kent 14.8%
Larry Walker 11.7%
Billy Wagner 9.4%
Gary Sheffield 8.6%
Sammy Sosa 7.8%
Jim Edmonds 2.3%
Nomar Garciaparra 0.8%
Garret Anderson 0.8%

The following have received 0 votes so far that appear on the 2016 ballot: Brad Ausmus, Luis Castillo, David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Mark Grudzielanek, Mike Hampton, Jason Kendall, Mike Lowell, Mike Sweeney, and Randy Winn.

[ndevlin]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

I never viewed Tim Raines as HOF. If they are going by runs scored then Dwight Evans has nearly has many runs plus a lot more RBI.

Though Raines is a borderline for me, he is the 2nd greatest leadoff hitter behind Henderson.

[volunteer]

Re: Early Ballot Baseball HOF Article

I never viewed Tim Raines as HOF. If they are going by runs scored then Dwight Evans has nearly has many runs plus a lot more RBI.

[Chris78]

Here is an article about the early ballots for the Baseball HOF for this year:

http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/mlb-the-biggest-surprises-from-early-hall-of-fame-voting.html/?a=viewall

As you can see in the article, most guys are seeing a boost in their percentage. Griffey is at 100% for the 100 ballots mentioned and it looks very good for Mike Piazza to make it this year. Even Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines would make it on these early ballots. You can also see how certain writers have been voting.