Tweet
Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?
I agree a 100% with Rudy,
Just an example of what he is sayiong for a player real current.
Lastings Milledge - people were so hyped over him and predicting him to be the next Mickey Mantle well at least in New York they were. That the prices for his Game Used items in my opinion were way too high. Contoversy and during his actual game playing time showed to be a decent player not a God. Plus the fact he was traded before you can even remember what team he started with drove his prices straight down just as quick as they were up.
"what current (non-vintage) MLB game used items do you think have the most potential to go up in value and why?"
for the most part, most items have little potential to significantly increase in value. it has little to do with how well a player will do. rather, the inherant problem is that the current pricing is built on predictions and hype; on a players potential to win ROY or win 20 games or reach the HOF. if the pricing already has these assumptions built into it, then how much room is there for pricing to move upwards? in other words, even if the player lives up to the predictions, all they've done is justify the current pricing. they haven't made it increase because the pricing already assumed they'd accomplish those things. do you think that current pujols pricing doesn't have the assumption that he'll hit 500 HR built into it? of course it does. so if you're already paying 500 HR prices now, then how much can you really hope to gain when pujols eventually hits 500? it's not like it'll be surprising. all sorts of prognosticators are constantly trying to predict who'll end up where and when. current pricing is based to a large extent on these predictions. given that it's more likely for a player not to live up to lofty predictions, it's more likely for prices to eventually come down than go up dramatically. todd zeile? gregg jeffries? ben mcdonald? at the very start of the careers, all of their stuff was priced as if these guys were already 10-time all-stars. prices had nowhere to go but down because even if they had lived up to the hype, the prices would've stayed relatively level because it already assumed they'd live up to it.
as for maddux, griffey, arod etc, their current prices already reflect that they're first-ballot HOF'ers because everyone knows they're as good as in. they could all stop playing today and they're in. for them, the summer induction is nothing but a formality at this point. it's not like once these guys are formally inducted, people will say "wow back in '08, i really wasn't sure if griffey and maddux would make it in!" and prices will rise. substantial profits are made only when risks are taken. how are griffey or maddux or arod a risk in '08? their current stats have already sealed their fates. everyone knows this so the prices reflect it. griffey and maddux were risks in 1988. the HOF has an effect on the prices for some players but those are the players that most people weren't sure whether they'd make it or not. borderline guys who squeaked through. if you're currently selling a griffey or maddux gamer, then you obviously know you're selling the gamer of a HOF'er and you're going to price it as such. anyone buying a griffey gamer today knows they're buying a HOF gamer and will pay accordingly.
that said, i suppose there are still a few ways prices could rise.
you could find a sleeper. some 7th round, 253rd pick who flies completely under everyones radar and turns out to be the next ARod. good luck. it'll require you outsmarting every scout and sportswriter out there.
you could find a player who outperforms the predictions. good luck on that as well. most people are already predicting ARod will break Bonds' record and of course they're building that assumption into the current ARod pricing. i suppose in order for ARod prices to rise he'll have to rise above those lofty predictions and smash something like 900 HRs instead of a paltry 800.
the supply (ie: massive glut) of current MLB items makes it very difficult to turn a serious profit. didn't snag that 2004 pujols jersey or 2005 david wright bat? no worries, there'll be 50 more boxloads coming soon. no need to pay a premium when everyone's drowning in the stuff.
the only way i see of profiting from current MLB items is via arbitrage. the item or player doesn't really matter. the only thing that matters is that item, whatever it is, is simply underpriced and you're the first one to notice and grab it. of course, market forces are generally working against you on this one because if there's an underpriced item then it's likely several people will notice and attempt to buy it and suddenly it won't be underpriced anymore. ideally what needs to happen is that there's some poor soul going through a divorce or foreclosure or some such and he's willing to part with his item for substantially less than it's worth. you're the first one to notice and grab it. or you could strike a bulk deal in which the price on each piece is substantially less than the current market value. i imagine it'd have to be a pretty big bulk. barring arbitrage, i don't see how you can outwit all of the prognosticators out there whilst swimming upstream against the huge glut of current items, in order to realize a substantial return.
in short, big returns are only acheived by taking big risks. want a big return? find a risky player and pray he turns out to be the next ARod. at this point, there's little to no risk with ARod, Griffey, Maddux, so there's going to be little to no reward. as of today, ARod's already a HOF'er so how much more do you think prices can rise? since when has buying bluechips at their high point ever made a substantial return? for ARod's prices to increase substantially above their current level he'd have to surpass current expectations which are that he'll hit 45-50 HRs a season for the next several years. unless he takes Bonds' roid route, i don't see ARod turning 35 and suddenly belting out 60-65 HRs a year. he's already a first-ballot HOF'er. there's little upside left. buying him back in 1994 would've seen a return. buying him in '08? no risk, no reward.
I'll end off by suggesting you try this 2007 Troy Tulowitzki gamer for $3000: http://www.greyflannel.com/sales_mai...?updateID=3188
if your first reaction is "who the hell is troy tulowitzki?" then you're probably not alone. so far, tulowitzki has 1 full season under his belt. during that season he smashed an unreal 24 HR while maintaining awe-inspiring .291 average. the $3000 price tag seems to assume tulowitzki will start in the next 6 all-star games and average 40 HRs a season from here on in. the funny thing is, even if he does perform these huge feats, the price won't go up much because it already assumes he's done these things. What then would it take for this Tulowitzki to turn into a $6k jersey and really turn a profit for its buyer? Tulowitzki would quickly need to turn into the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. good luck.
rudy.
for the most part, most items have little potential to significantly increase in value. it has little to do with how well a player will do. rather, the inherant problem is that the current pricing is built on predictions and hype; on a players potential to win ROY or win 20 games or reach the HOF. if the pricing already has these assumptions built into it, then how much room is there for pricing to move upwards? in other words, even if the player lives up to the predictions, all they've done is justify the current pricing. they haven't made it increase because the pricing already assumed they'd accomplish those things. do you think that current pujols pricing doesn't have the assumption that he'll hit 500 HR built into it? of course it does. so if you're already paying 500 HR prices now, then how much can you really hope to gain when pujols eventually hits 500? it's not like it'll be surprising. all sorts of prognosticators are constantly trying to predict who'll end up where and when. current pricing is based to a large extent on these predictions. given that it's more likely for a player not to live up to lofty predictions, it's more likely for prices to eventually come down than go up dramatically. todd zeile? gregg jeffries? ben mcdonald? at the very start of the careers, all of their stuff was priced as if these guys were already 10-time all-stars. prices had nowhere to go but down because even if they had lived up to the hype, the prices would've stayed relatively level because it already assumed they'd live up to it.
as for maddux, griffey, arod etc, their current prices already reflect that they're first-ballot HOF'ers because everyone knows they're as good as in. they could all stop playing today and they're in. for them, the summer induction is nothing but a formality at this point. it's not like once these guys are formally inducted, people will say "wow back in '08, i really wasn't sure if griffey and maddux would make it in!" and prices will rise. substantial profits are made only when risks are taken. how are griffey or maddux or arod a risk in '08? their current stats have already sealed their fates. everyone knows this so the prices reflect it. griffey and maddux were risks in 1988. the HOF has an effect on the prices for some players but those are the players that most people weren't sure whether they'd make it or not. borderline guys who squeaked through. if you're currently selling a griffey or maddux gamer, then you obviously know you're selling the gamer of a HOF'er and you're going to price it as such. anyone buying a griffey gamer today knows they're buying a HOF gamer and will pay accordingly.
that said, i suppose there are still a few ways prices could rise.
you could find a sleeper. some 7th round, 253rd pick who flies completely under everyones radar and turns out to be the next ARod. good luck. it'll require you outsmarting every scout and sportswriter out there.
you could find a player who outperforms the predictions. good luck on that as well. most people are already predicting ARod will break Bonds' record and of course they're building that assumption into the current ARod pricing. i suppose in order for ARod prices to rise he'll have to rise above those lofty predictions and smash something like 900 HRs instead of a paltry 800.
the supply (ie: massive glut) of current MLB items makes it very difficult to turn a serious profit. didn't snag that 2004 pujols jersey or 2005 david wright bat? no worries, there'll be 50 more boxloads coming soon. no need to pay a premium when everyone's drowning in the stuff.
the only way i see of profiting from current MLB items is via arbitrage. the item or player doesn't really matter. the only thing that matters is that item, whatever it is, is simply underpriced and you're the first one to notice and grab it. of course, market forces are generally working against you on this one because if there's an underpriced item then it's likely several people will notice and attempt to buy it and suddenly it won't be underpriced anymore. ideally what needs to happen is that there's some poor soul going through a divorce or foreclosure or some such and he's willing to part with his item for substantially less than it's worth. you're the first one to notice and grab it. or you could strike a bulk deal in which the price on each piece is substantially less than the current market value. i imagine it'd have to be a pretty big bulk. barring arbitrage, i don't see how you can outwit all of the prognosticators out there whilst swimming upstream against the huge glut of current items, in order to realize a substantial return.
in short, big returns are only acheived by taking big risks. want a big return? find a risky player and pray he turns out to be the next ARod. at this point, there's little to no risk with ARod, Griffey, Maddux, so there's going to be little to no reward. as of today, ARod's already a HOF'er so how much more do you think prices can rise? since when has buying bluechips at their high point ever made a substantial return? for ARod's prices to increase substantially above their current level he'd have to surpass current expectations which are that he'll hit 45-50 HRs a season for the next several years. unless he takes Bonds' roid route, i don't see ARod turning 35 and suddenly belting out 60-65 HRs a year. he's already a first-ballot HOF'er. there's little upside left. buying him back in 1994 would've seen a return. buying him in '08? no risk, no reward.
I'll end off by suggesting you try this 2007 Troy Tulowitzki gamer for $3000: http://www.greyflannel.com/sales_mai...?updateID=3188
if your first reaction is "who the hell is troy tulowitzki?" then you're probably not alone. so far, tulowitzki has 1 full season under his belt. during that season he smashed an unreal 24 HR while maintaining awe-inspiring .291 average. the $3000 price tag seems to assume tulowitzki will start in the next 6 all-star games and average 40 HRs a season from here on in. the funny thing is, even if he does perform these huge feats, the price won't go up much because it already assumes he's done these things. What then would it take for this Tulowitzki to turn into a $6k jersey and really turn a profit for its buyer? Tulowitzki would quickly need to turn into the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. good luck.
rudy.
I agree a 100% with Rudy,
Just an example of what he is sayiong for a player real current.
Lastings Milledge - people were so hyped over him and predicting him to be the next Mickey Mantle well at least in New York they were. That the prices for his Game Used items in my opinion were way too high. Contoversy and during his actual game playing time showed to be a decent player not a God. Plus the fact he was traded before you can even remember what team he started with drove his prices straight down just as quick as they were up.
Comment