Best Modern Game Used Investments?

[kellsox]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Rentaria was a bust in Boston and I believe they are currently paying part of his salary to NOT play from them. Due to longevity he will rack up #s but at no time has he been close to a "dominant" player. There's probably a reason why he is traded almost every year(the last few).
kelly

[bigtruck260]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Rentaria was a bust in Boston and I believe they are currently paying part of his salary to NOT play from them. Due to longevity he will rack up #s but at no time has he been close to a "dominant" player. There's probably a reason why he is traded almost every year(the last few).
kelly

You and Suave make good points - but he DID hit .332 last season - and played through injury. Longevity can also be a good thing. Many players broke records simply because they hung around for 25 years.

Hank Aaron is a great example.

He is probably borderline...but still affordable and a guy that people will problably look back on as a guy who "slipped through the cracks".

If he plays 8 more seasons and averages 150 hits every year, he will be well over 3,000 (3200) hits and will be 39 - which is younger than some guys who did it. I guess we'll see...

Dave

[suave1477]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

You and Suave make good points - but he DID hit .332 last season - and played through injury. Longevity can also be a good thing. Many players broke records simply because they hung around for 25 years.

Hank Aaron is a great example.

He is probably borderline...but still affordable and a guy that people will problably look back on as a guy who "slipped through the cracks".

If he plays 8 more seasons and averages 150 hits every year, he will be well over 3,000 (3200) hits and will be 39 - which is younger than some guys who did it. I guess we'll see...

Dave

Big Truck ok now your comparing Apples and Oranges, yeah look at Hank Aaron and what he accomplished because he stuck around, but he did it with making high numbers not just sticking around. If Edgar Renteria stuck around it would take him nearly 60 years to do what Hank did and nearly 40 years to hit the 500 mark. As far as him making it to the 3000 mark another unlikely - like you said he will need 8 more seasons thats going to depend on how many more teams want to pick him up and chances are towards the latter of his career he may end up as a pinch hitter or a utility player.

So with every point you bring up im starting to think less and less of his chances of making it to the hall lol lol

[bigtruck260]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Big Truck ok now your comparing Apples and Oranges, yeah look at Hank Aaron and what he accomplished because he stuck around, but he did it with making high numbers not just sticking around. If Edgar Renteria stuck around it would take him nearly 60 years to do what Hank did and nearly 40 years to hit the 500 mark. As far as him making it to the 3000 mark another unlikely - like you said he will need 8 more seasons thats going to depend on how many more teams want to pick him up and chances are towards the latter of his career he may end up as a pinch hitter or a utility player.

So with every point you bring up im starting to think less and less of his chances of making it to the hall lol lol

Was not comparing Renteria to Hank - that IS funny.

No - just saying that Hank's numbers were consistent with a guy who played a long time.

He broke the HR record with 4000 more at bats than Ruth had. Bonds broke his record with 2800 less at bats. Hank is in the top 5 of all time. Renteria would be lucky to crack the top 200-250 when his career is finished.

My argument is that IF Renteria plays 19 seasons, he could amass 3,000 hits - which is a HOF standard (currently, that might change).

That's all...he is a longshot for the HOF, but there is a possibility there.

The point of the thread was Best Modern GU investments - Edgar is not over-priced right now. IF he is fruitful in the last half of his career, the prices on his GU items will probably increase significantly. They certainly will not decrease unless he pulls an OJ or gets hurt and is forced to retire.

Suave - these are all IF's.

[kingjammy24]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

"The high-risk, high-reward moves would be for example to score a "rookie" bat of a player who is primed for big success. They may not and will not all turn out to be HOFers, but the one time you hit the nail on you most likely have tripled your investment with a 4 figure bat that you stole dirt cheap and sat on for years."

ryan, what sorts of bat prices are you seeing for the "high risk" players you mentioned?

if a player is "primed for big success" then it's almost impossible for them not to be hyped. as the hype increases, predictions start flowing and prices naturally escalate. given this, i'm not sure how it's possible to get the game-used item of a hyped rookie for "dirt cheap".

before matsuzaka even set foot in boston, all the reports had fans believing the sox had found a japanese walter johnson. GFC is currently selling his '07 rookie jersey (with steiner certs) for $16k. $16k for the jersey of a guy who's played a total of 1 year. if he ends up being the next cy young, then you might break even! if he ends up as anything less, you'll be out around $10k. how can you not like those odds? i realize that GFC's ludicrous price isn't true market value but even at $12k, there's almost no upside.

GFC currently has an '07 ryan braun jersey rated A10 by MEARS. it's $4000. to put these prices in a relative comparison, GFC is selling an '02 andy pettitte gamer with steiner certs for $1250. braun has played a career total of 35 games and has an awe-inspiring 2-1 record with an era of 6.xx. pettitte has won over 200, is a 2x all-star and world champion yet his steiner-certed jersey is less than half of brauns'. braun may never win 200 games in his entire career or star in a single all-star game. so what exactly is the basis behind braun's $4k jersey or daisuke's $16k jersey? hype. GFC is pricing the braun jersey as if he's already won 250 games. whatever the predictions were when pettitte was a rookie, we now know what he's actually accomplished and apparently those accomplishments are worth $1250. if a 200 game winner is worth $1250, then how many games must braun win to justify $4000? if braun beats the odds, fulfills all predictions and wins 250 games, what will his jersey be worth then? what will be the payoff for those lucky souls who accurately predicted braun's future and hung in there for years? around $4000 probably. if braun ends up being only as good as pettitte, then his jersey will be worth $1250 and you've lost $2750. basically, if you buy that braun jersey for $4000, braun MUST one day become the next 250 game winner simply for you to re-coup your costs. where's the profit? at a $4k starting price, the profit would only come if he ends up being the next nolan ryan.

mikitasports, the "exclusive source for ryan braun items", sold a braun bat for $500: http://www.mikitasports.com/braun_batsigned_large.html

what's the $500 based on, if clearly not performance? the "potential" of braun. potential to do what? to possibly be as good as curt schilling one day? well why take the risk and wait to find out? you can grab a schilling game-used bat right now with team LOA for about $500 from steinmetz: http://www.authenticgamers.com/Schilling.02.bat.html

whatever you're paying $500 for braun to hopefully one day become, schilling has already done that and his bats are apparently worth no more than brauns' so where's the profit to realize if braun made it big? there's almost no profit because the current pricing on braun seems to already assume he's accomplished what schilling has. in reality, it's unlikely he will. the only person profiting is the one who manages to sell braun for $500 now with big, glorious proclamations of upside. "he'll be huge! big one day, i tell ya!". he may be but when he is, that bat isn't gonna be worth much more than it is now because all he did was live up to the predictions that were the basis of his current pricing. that $500 bat has a lot more room to go down than up.

not sure where his dirt cheap items are. i don't know who justin upton is but his brother's got a nice autographed gamer at LMR for $2000: http://www.lrmemo.com/product_p/bj-g...h238-crack.htm
last year was bj's first full year in the majors. he hit a walloping 24 HRs. i haven't seen power like that since a lean 'n mean candy maldonado smashed 22 for the indians in 1990. you know whose bats i see going for $2k?

https://www.digitalfm.com/gameusedbats/itemDetail.cfm?sku=3575

how about that. you can "invest" in bj upton for $2k or just grab yourself a first-ballot HOF'er and 600 HR club member right now. upton is being priced as if he's already ken griffey jr, despite the fact that griffey's already accomplished these things and upton likely never will. $2k so i can take a huge risk of upton one day being as good as griffey whereupon i'll be able to recoup my costs or i can just eliminate all risk and grab the griffey now for the same price. hooray for hype.

rudy.

[GameBats]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Isn't Ryan Braun a third baseman?

[XPFO]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

[kingjammy24]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

i imagine there are people thinking that if there's little upside to most of this modern stuff, then how is that there are entities out there making money at it.

i suppose there are a few ways you could go about it. if you go about it the honest way ala kim stigall or jim yackel and you're paying retail prices to acquire it and don't have any exclusive deals, i just don't see where the bucketloads of money is. maybe i'm missing something and someone else can enlighten me.

how are places like ESM and ASI making money? i'll leave that up to peoples imaginations.

the auction houses make money because regardless of whether an item increases or drops in value, they get a cut. for the most part, they're insulated from the fluctuations in value.

while i haven't seen their balance sheets, i imagine steiner and meigray are making money. they're exclusive purveyors of some very desireable items though. as well, they aren't paying retail prices. (i imagine though that for every jeter or lebron jersey sold and profited on, they probably lose money on the miguel cairos and daniel gibsons).

then you've got the "exclusive" perveyors who focus on rookies or third-stringers. i've already described how i believe they manage to turn a profit. "we've just signed an exclusive deal with shelby terwilliger! shelby hit .415 in appaloosa last year and was just called up to the indians! the second coming of eddie murray! get him while you can! we are the only official distributor of shelby terwilliger game-used items!". it seems they depend on rabid wily mo pena fans who must have his jersey at all costs or the armchair bill james' who have no doubt that curtis granderson is the next ken griffey jr and are willing to plunk down $5k for his glove believing that it will easily fetch $15k in 10 yrs and they'll be seen as financial geniuses.

one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up. to be honest, i don't think it's all that bad an m.o. i know i'd certainly overpay for some common jerseys. someone could've bought a 1991 devon white jersey directly from the jays for about $400 and here i'd be waving my $700 to buy it. i guess the skill in that game is ensuring that the item is rare enough that it can't be purchased elsewhere and then hoping you manage to attract some rabid fan.

maybe i'm wrong about all of this though. i'd certainly appreciate hearing from some of the more advanced flippers and "investors" on this forum.

rudy.

[bigtruck260]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

Right. THE Ryan Braun put up Pujols like numbers in 133 games:

34/97/.324

Still not worth it IMO. Many Pujols items are overpriced - probably based on percieved scarcity (and the numerous fakes). Getting a bona fide legit bat might actually set you back a minimum of a grand - and Rudy is right...how much of that will really be recouped???

If I had one, it would be for display - not investment purposes...unless I somehow managed to get one for free. Not Likely.

Dave

[kingjammy24]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Rudy...in your post you are discussing two different (very different) Ryan Braun's...both rookies, but opposite ends of the spectrum.

good god, you're right! holy smokes. two ryan brauns.

what a mess! god what i've give for an edit button right about now.


rudy.

[bigtruck260]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up.

rudy.

That is the case for MANY items in the memorablia business. There are those dealers that think they have gold in the form of a bat - and will wait for someone to buy the item. For instance, several years ago, Albert Pujols was selling his game model bats signed via his website. Originally, they were listed at $799 (I should have bought 5) - they sold out quickly and the next time the stock was replenished, the price went to $999.

Here is an example of a seller who is trying to make a major return:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ALBERT-PUJOLS-AUTO-BAT-COA-PUJOLS-FAMILY-FOUNDATION_W0QQitemZ160095659250QQihZ006QQcategoryZ27261QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Is the bat worth that much? Well, considering another company is selling an inferior item (not game model, but MLB auth.) for this:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ALBERT-PUJOLS-ST-LOUIS-CARDINALS-SIGNED-BLACK-LS-BAT_W0QQitemZ110108244422QQihZ001QQcategoryZ27261QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

It's not such a stretch after all.
I know of a few folks that would buy the Family Foundation bat for that price...they just can't pay the $$. The bat is not even USED.

We live in strange times.

Dave

[kingjammy24]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

edit:

ok so, ryan "the hebrew hammer" braun played his first full season in '07 and did some serious damage with 34HR/97RBI/.324. nice! much better than his namesake on the royals. so, his jersey is $4k and his bat is $500.

okey dokey, now we're cooking. i still believe that my original point stands that predictions are built into the price. the $500 bat price doesn't seem as out of wack as the jersey price but there's still room for it to go down. if you wanted to turn a profit on the $500 bat and sell it for $800, then again isn't $800 a price for a borderline HOF'er or at least a bonafide superstar? for $500 (or less) taube is selling game-used bats from manny ramirez, dave winfield, chipper jones. $599 for the game-used bat of a proven commodity of vladimir guerrero. 1 year does not a superstar make. we've all seen tons of players have a couple good years. so what's the price based on? on the "promise" that braun will continue the numbers he had in '07 for the next 5 or 6 yrs. why take the risk? pick up a guerrero or a ramirez for the same price!

the $4k is really out of wack. in order to justify a $4k jersey who does braun have to become? $4k's a hefty price..a HOF'er price. now,if you're actually going to make a profit on this thing and expect to sell it at $6-7k, then who does braun need to be? examine the jerseys you could buy at $4k and at $6-7k and you'll likely find they're of players that braun has a slim chance of living up to.

again, all the money is made by GFC in the upfront speculation. the likelihood is that braun will not become the sort of superstar HOF'er that he'll need to be in order for there to be a lot more room for his jersey to exceed $4k.

rudy.

[godwulf]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

Then you are definitely a collector. Justin is better than his brother and BJ just turned the corner in the major. Did you buy all those jersey that were going for $500-700 a couple of month ago on ebay?

The seller of those two jerseys came down considerably - I think I paid $400 each, plus shipping. I paid $561 for his pink Mother's Day jersey from Visalia, and about the same each for the other four jerseys I have.

[nate]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

There are plenty of great deals out there for modern day players. Just use your knowledge of the player, do some research about his game used equipment and start looking. If you find a great deal then you are ahead of the market.

[suave1477]

Re: Best Modern Game Used Investments?

i imagine there are people thinking that if there's little upside to most of this modern stuff, then how is that there are entities out there making money at it.

i suppose there are a few ways you could go about it. if you go about it the honest way ala kim stigall or jim yackel and you're paying retail prices to acquire it and don't have any exclusive deals, i just don't see where the bucketloads of money is. maybe i'm missing something and someone else can enlighten me.

how are places like ESM and ASI making money? i'll leave that up to peoples imaginations.

the auction houses make money because regardless of whether an item increases or drops in value, they get a cut. for the most part, they're insulated from the fluctuations in value.

while i haven't seen their balance sheets, i imagine steiner and meigray are making money. they're exclusive purveyors of some very desireable items though. as well, they aren't paying retail prices. (i imagine though that for every jeter or lebron jersey sold and profited on, they probably lose money on the miguel cairos and daniel gibsons).

then you've got the "exclusive" perveyors who focus on rookies or third-stringers. i've already described how i believe they manage to turn a profit. "we've just signed an exclusive deal with shelby terwilliger! shelby hit .415 in appaloosa last year and was just called up to the indians! the second coming of eddie murray! get him while you can! we are the only official distributor of shelby terwilliger game-used items!". it seems they depend on rabid wily mo pena fans who must have his jersey at all costs or the armchair bill james' who have no doubt that curtis granderson is the next ken griffey jr and are willing to plunk down $5k for his glove believing that it will easily fetch $15k in 10 yrs and they'll be seen as financial geniuses.

one method i've seen is to buy desireable items, pay the market rate and then price them twice what you paid and sit around and wait for someone desperate enough to pay it. i imagine this entirely depends on acquiring rare and desireable items. as much as they'd like otherwise, i don't see anyone paying mears $225 for their 1990 scott leius BP shirt (especially when kim stigall was recently selling one for $60). regardless, i guess that's one way to turn a profit. just sit around and hope that one day the world's biggest scott leius fan shows up. to be honest, i don't think it's all that bad an m.o. i know i'd certainly overpay for some common jerseys. someone could've bought a 1991 devon white jersey directly from the jays for about $400 and here i'd be waving my $700 to buy it. i guess the skill in that game is ensuring that the item is rare enough that it can't be purchased elsewhere and then hoping you manage to attract some rabid fan.

maybe i'm wrong about all of this though. i'd certainly appreciate hearing from some of the more advanced flippers and "investors" on this forum.

rudy.

KimgJammy I agree with everything you just said, may I also add reading your posts are a pleasure. I think you are one of the most intellectual members on this board me and you think exactly a like but it always seems your able to put it into better words then me.

With that being i would also like to say the buyers sets the market value in a matter of speaking. Just as you said for a Devon White Jersey thats selling for $400 but your so hot to have you your wiling to go $700. Now you just set the value for that Jersey (in a matter of speaking) for what its going to sell for next. You might find someone who is a big Devon White fan and you show him how much you paid and your selling point is how rare the Jersey might be and he might pay $900 for a Jersey that origianlly started off at $400 and meanwhile to someone like me who could care less might offer you $2 dollars for it, but if you can find a buyer to pay the $900 and you originally up it from $400 to $700 theres your market value.

Do you agree?