The Value of Potential

[sox83cubs84]

Re: The Value of Potential

I guess when it comes down to it it is kind of hard to define.
One persons idea of a bust may be different than anothers. Some bust are obvious but some are not.
Do we define a bust by wins and loses, playoff appearances, super bowl wins, pro bowls, yards completed, touchdowns, etc.............

These things are all over the map...it's impossible to find one specific criterium. By most standards, ex-Bear Rex Grossman was a washout...but by one measuring stick, he is equal to Dan Marino (starting QB for a non-winning Super Bowl team). That's even, thoguh admittedly, Marino's all-around accomplishments bury Grossman's.

Dave Miedema

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

I guess when it comes down to it it is kind of hard to define.
One persons idea of a bust may be different than anothers. Some bust are obvious but some are not.
Do we define a bust by wins and loses, playoff appearances, super bowl wins, pro bowls, yards completed, touchdowns, etc.............

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

You said, and I qoute "Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential."
I don't believe that.
Now since you have amended that to "My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position." That makes for a totaly different argument.
Are you talking about QBs taken in the first 20 spots, 10 spots, 5 spots??
The context of your argument and its specifics must be less random. I cannot read your mind nor know what you mean if you're not specific.

This doesn't support either argument but was research on whether or not you Draft a QB in the 1st round:

Career Statistics
As the first part of the assessment, the career statistics of all top quarterbacks from the 1970 through 2006 drafts were compiled. On average, a first round quarterback played in 136 games, passed for 27,094 yards, threw 165 touchdown passes and 134 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 78.90.

Quarterbacks selected in later rounds averaged 132 games played, 24,310 passing yards, 153 touchdown passes, 113 interceptions, and a 80.65 passer rating.

Based on these results, there is little difference between the careers of a top quarterback selected in the first round and one selected later.

First rounders had slightly longer careers in terms of games played, and slightly higher production in passing yards and touchdown passes, because a first round pick is more likely to play early in his career than a later pick. For the same reason, first round picks have more interceptions and a slightly lower passer rating than later picks.

Less experienced quarterbacks are more likely to throw interceptions, and thus have lower passer ratings than guys who have had a little more time to learn from the sidelines.

Draft Analysis
Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.

Generally, the later a quarterback is selected in the draft, the less likely he is to reach the Pro Bowl. Second and third round selections have reached the Pro Bowl 20 percent of the time, and after that the rate drops precipitously to 10 percent or less.

A total of 77 quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have played in the Pro Bowl, of which the 31 first round picks comprise 40 percent.

Under one half of quarterbacks who have played in the Pro Bowl were first round draft picks, but the proportion of Super Bowl winners is even more in favor of first rounders.

Twenty quarterbacks who entered the league between 1970 and 2006 have started for teams that won the Super Bowl, and of those 20, 11 were drafted in the first round. Of all quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 14 percent have started on the team that won the Super Bowl.
For quarterbacks drafted later or not at all, the rate is less than two percent.

Finally, the ultimate test of greatness is an election into the Hall of Fame. To date, nine quarterbacks who entered the league in 1970 or later have been enshrined in Canton, and three active quarterbacks (as of the 2008 season) can be considered locks for election after they retire, bringing the total to 12 current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the league since 1970.

Of those 12, six were first round draft picks. Of the remainder, three were taken in the second or third round, and the rest were undrafted or drafted late.

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: The Value of Potential

Did he live up to the hype in his 3 losses. I prefer to place my focus on young players who have actually done something other than get drafted 1 and sign a big contract.

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

You said, and I qoute "Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential."
I don't believe that.
Now since you have amended that to "My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position." That makes for a totaly different argument.
Are you talking about QBs taken in the first 20 spots, 10 spots, 5 spots??
The context of your argument and its specifics must be less random. I cannot read your mind nor know what you mean if you're not specific.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

A sad list indeed of all the busts. Jason Campbell on Sunday with the Raiders had a passer rating of 10.7 which was the lowest rating for a QB in 2010.

I think the reason for all the QB busts is the game doesn't translate well from being a QB in college to the NFL.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: The Value of Potential

I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

Much higher because they have a much higher risk of injury.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: The Value of Potential

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

[kellsox]

Re: The Value of Potential

I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

[kellsox]

Re: The Value of Potential

You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.

And then he blew out his arm- assuring he will not pitch the way he began his career for at least 1 1/2 seasons. He lived up to the hype for a short period- now he is just another pitch er that is on the long road to recovery.

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell.

But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.

You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

Good point. Forgot about that baseball card. That was nuts.

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: The Value of Potential

strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.