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Re: Can anyone calculate how much PED's add to a palyer's stats?
Sorry to chop so much out, but this is what I wanted to address.
We don't know much about Luis Gonzalez; namely, I don't believe there's actually been a careful and intensive study done on his career. I reference another former Brave: Hank Aaron. His numbers look incredibly consistent from one year to the next over his entire career, but it's really an illusion. Milwaukee County Stadium happened to cater (slightly) to his skill set, so he started his career off with a bang. They moved to Atlanta's Launching Pad, which catered more to his skill set, so he continued to produce at the same rate as he had before. Then when he started to decline, they made the famous adjustments after the 1968 season and his numbers went right back to normal.
The reason I mention this with Luis Gonzalez is because, in the absence of being able to carefully assess what exactly the ballparks did to him or for him, we can't really say one way or another. He played a good chunk of his career in the Astrodome, which would certainly have a detrimental effect on power numbers. He spent a year in Tiger Stadium, which would have a similar effect. He then went to Arizona, which would largely have a positive impact.
For another example, look at David Ortiz. When Boston signed him on Bill James' recommendation for $700,000 a year, the logic was this. He had so much power as a pull hitter that he could hit home runs to right field in Fenway (not an easy thing to do). If he went to the opposite field, a hard fly ball would still be a home run. His power has begun to decline a bit over the last two years, so he's not hitting as hard when he pulls but his timing is still good enough that he's not consistently going opposite field.
Sorry to chop so much out, but this is what I wanted to address.
We don't know much about Luis Gonzalez; namely, I don't believe there's actually been a careful and intensive study done on his career. I reference another former Brave: Hank Aaron. His numbers look incredibly consistent from one year to the next over his entire career, but it's really an illusion. Milwaukee County Stadium happened to cater (slightly) to his skill set, so he started his career off with a bang. They moved to Atlanta's Launching Pad, which catered more to his skill set, so he continued to produce at the same rate as he had before. Then when he started to decline, they made the famous adjustments after the 1968 season and his numbers went right back to normal.
The reason I mention this with Luis Gonzalez is because, in the absence of being able to carefully assess what exactly the ballparks did to him or for him, we can't really say one way or another. He played a good chunk of his career in the Astrodome, which would certainly have a detrimental effect on power numbers. He spent a year in Tiger Stadium, which would have a similar effect. He then went to Arizona, which would largely have a positive impact.
For another example, look at David Ortiz. When Boston signed him on Bill James' recommendation for $700,000 a year, the logic was this. He had so much power as a pull hitter that he could hit home runs to right field in Fenway (not an easy thing to do). If he went to the opposite field, a hard fly ball would still be a home run. His power has begun to decline a bit over the last two years, so he's not hitting as hard when he pulls but his timing is still good enough that he's not consistently going opposite field.
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