The Value of Potential

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell.

It is pretty sad that Tim Couch probably was the best of this bunch....

[Chris78]

Re: The Value of Potential

$10,000 is a lot of money on a player that you are most likely correct about never being one of the "greats" and you can throw Manning, Favre and Marino in that list too on the list of modern greats and most would say $10,000 is a good price for a sure thing 1st pro jersey.

On the Strasburg correlation, his pitching debut was the greatest in MLB history and while his injury set him back a year, his only real jersey that I know of had sold for under $5,000 with no others out there with any photomatches or provenance.

If the Tebow was $3,000, that is still a lot of money for a guy who may be nothing more than a "wildcat" QB in the NFL.

I feel the same way about the Mark Sanchez jersey last year. In this hobby, to each their own!

I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

[gingi79]

Re: The Value of Potential

If the buyer is a huge Gators fan and price is simply a cost of owning something they will love forever, then good pick up.

I personally believe this hobby will in the not too distant future, become a lot like baseball cards, commemorative plates, NASCAR die cast and the like. "Value" will plummet and with it, a lot of these insane costs will drop.

I'd also like to address a few comments that keeps coming up with very little comprehension of their distinct points:

1) The availability of these shirts for guys like Tebow and Strasburg today is obscene in comparison to the 90's, 80's, 70's etc. How many photomatched HOF jerseys have you seen for sale where there is no doubt about the jersey? MeiGray had a photomatched Montana for $17k at one point. Barry would have to chime in on more details and the exact price.

2) Guys wear 10+ jerseys a season now. How many jerseys did Marino wear in 1984? or Montana in 1980? Bradshaw in say 1974? No one knows a specific number (to the best of my knowledge at least) looking at photos week after week, maybe 2 or 3 of each style at most? Then they were recycled in some cases year after year?

3) Anyone with a big enough pocketbook can buy any jersey. Before JO and MeiGray and the like, how did we get our jerseys? If you were lucky and knew guys like Milt Byron or Larry P for Hockey or Tuff Stuff, Beckett, Murf Denny or Dick Dobbins. That's it folks. If you were in touch with them, getting stuff, real stuff was hard as hell. Now? 17 different auction houses, eBay, this site, 4 other game worn forums, hundreds of collectors and dealers with their pics online and posted email addresses. Access to NFL Auctions, NHL Auctions, teams selling online and through their websites even in their stadiums. Jesus, you could email the damn player sometimes!

The hobby has apexed and I hypothesize that costs for jerseys rivaling new cars will soon go the way of the 1987 Topps Baseball set. When anyone can have anything, what's it worth?

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: The Value of Potential

strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

I agree that Strasburg was/is very impressive (and to me much more than Tim Tebow) and I saw him in the minors and he was the best pitcher I ever saw at that level. I was referring to that baseball card that sold for something like $16,000+. I just personally would not take a chance on a jersey even if was less than $5,000. Now for $1000-1200, maybe I would consider it for a really top-notch prospect like Strasburg, but I have never paid that much for a single jersey.

Good point. Forgot about that baseball card. That was nuts.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

strasburg did what he did in his debut against the worst team in the NL. It could be 2-4 years before he gets anywhere close to where he was. Strasburg was nothing more than hype.

You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

The Broncos know what they were doing just like all these guys teams that took their 1st round picks:

The Dirty Dozen:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Heath Shuler
Aikili Smith
Andre Ware
Joey Harrington
Rick Mirer
David Klingler
Tim Couch
Jack Thompson
Cade McNown
Art Schlichter

Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential.

It sometimes takes years to evaluate a QB. Just ask the Oakland Raiders and their great QB JaMarcus Russell.

But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

[kellsox]

Re: The Value of Potential

You know what they say about "opinions". The media hyped him and he exceeded the hype. He set the Strikeout record cumulatively in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th starts.

He pitched against Cincinatti and beat them, 1 run against the Phillies, 1 run against the Giants, 2 runs against the Mets and so on. Sure, it was nice to start against the Pirates, but that is who was on the schedule.

14 strikeouts in 7 innings in a Major League Debut is amazing.

And then he blew out his arm- assuring he will not pitch the way he began his career for at least 1 1/2 seasons. He lived up to the hype for a short period- now he is just another pitch er that is on the long road to recovery.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

But then you have

Peyton Manning,
Eli Manning,
Dan Marino,
Joe Montana,
Drew Bledsoe,
Troy Aikman,
Duante Culpepper,
Donovan Mcnabb
and many more who have had productive NFL careers.

I bet the percentage of running backs taken in the first round and have gone on to be bust is much greater than the percentage of quarterbacks.

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

[kellsox]

Re: The Value of Potential

I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: The Value of Potential

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

[legaleagle92481]

Re: The Value of Potential

I would guess that pitchers have a higher "bust" rate than position players in mlb.

Much higher because they have a much higher risk of injury.

[allstarsplus]

Re: The Value of Potential

Believe it or not Curtis Martin was a third round pick but your defintely right 1st round QBs are epic failures much more than other positions. I have a few to add to your list all since 2000:

JP Losman
David Carr
Matt Leinart
Rex Grossman
Alex Smith
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Patrick Ramsey

Now consider these guys:

Tony Romo (Undrafted)
Brett Favre (Second Round)
Drew Brees (Second Round)
Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th Round)
Jeff Garcia (Undrafted)
Matt Schaub (3rd Round)
Matt Hasselbeck (6th Round)

Goes to show taking a QB is always a crapshoot.

A sad list indeed of all the busts. Jason Campbell on Sunday with the Raiders had a passer rating of 10.7 which was the lowest rating for a QB in 2010.

I think the reason for all the QB busts is the game doesn't translate well from being a QB in college to the NFL.

[Bravesfan]

Re: The Value of Potential

So whats your point?

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Jerome Bettis
Eric Dickerson
Tony Dorsett
Edgerrin James

My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position. Talk to Mel Kyper Jr. if you want to argue it out with him as he says it every year at the Draft.

You said, and I qoute "Choosing quarterbacks in the 1st round is riskier than any other pick in the 1st round for All Pro potential."
I don't believe that.
Now since you have amended that to "My point is the "being a bust" rate is greater for high draft pick QBs then any other position." That makes for a totaly different argument.
Are you talking about QBs taken in the first 20 spots, 10 spots, 5 spots??
The context of your argument and its specifics must be less random. I cannot read your mind nor know what you mean if you're not specific.

[Fnazxc0114]

Re: The Value of Potential

Did he live up to the hype in his 3 losses. I prefer to place my focus on young players who have actually done something other than get drafted 1 and sign a big contract.